Superstorm93 Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 Actually looking at MIMIC and SSMI17, it appears that Haiyan completed a very quick and seemingly successful EWRC not too long ago. It's not hard to imagine that the cyclone could once again strengthen slightly to its MPI of 155-160 knots... Also interesting to note that the HR-ECMWF via weatherbell is having trouble with the intensity of Haiyan due to its relatively tight core. http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/adt/plots/31W_SSMI17_20131106-204300.PMW-ALL.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 00z Best Track stays at 150 knots 31W HAIYAN 131107 0000 8.6N 132.8E WPAC 150 911 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1900hurricane Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 Occasionally it looks like there might be some NE shear trying to get to the core. The eye is still +12c and it's an ADT7.1. so 175mph might be accurate. There was some light easterly shear near the top of the troposphere this morning that contributed to the slight lopsidedness of the CDO, but the inward component of those winds has now decreased to less than that of the storm motion, resulting in excellent outflow ventilation and divergence everywhere except for the far northeastern corner of the CDO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 Pagasa has this as a 215 km/hr storm w/ max gusts 250 km/hr, much lower than the JTWC almost 280 km/hr storm. The gusts being lower than JTWC's strength suggests it isn't a matter of 10 minute versus 1 minute winds. http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/wb/tcupdate.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 Kinda spooky... Hope people are taking Haiyan seriously. The eye has expanded a bit and the RMW should have expanded as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 Pagasa has this as a 215 km/hr storm w/ max gusts 250 km/hr, much lower than the JTWC almost 280 km/hr storm. The gusts being lower than JTWC's strength suggests it isn't a matter of 10 minute versus 1 minute winds. http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/wb/tcupdate.shtml Judging solely from appearance, if Pagasa is going by 1 min sustained, JTWC is probably closer to the actual intensity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick05 Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 Judging solely from appearance, if Pagasa is going by 1 min sustained, JTWC is probably closer to the actual intensity. they actually use 10-min and are closely aligned with JMA wind analysis (except for the gust).. right now, JMA has it at 115kt which would be equivalent to PAGASA's 215kph sustained... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 Haiyan being compared to Super Typhoon Mike in 1990, only stronger. Killed 748, 220 million in damage. Using an app called iTyphoon to track storms in that region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 Well Mike came ashore around with around 120 kt winds (low Cat 4) so this would be stronger on the current projections, and yes the track is quite similar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1900hurricane Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 The remnants of the inner eyewall have completely subsided within the eye now, and the result is rather striking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1900hurricane Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 Looks like Haiyan's outflow restriction on the east side are a thing of the past. Ventilation pattern is phenomenal now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 Unfortunately, the JTWC web site doesn't have the storm there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torchageddon Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 Kinda spooky... Hope people are taking Haiyan seriously. The eye has expanded a bit and the RMW should have expanded as well. It does look creepy there, that eye and moat. Wins that award for 2013. It was a given that this would be a CAT5 and even 150 knots, but I think it's intensifying now beyond that. The solid ring is establishing and the eye continues to warm. Looks like Haiyan's outflow restriction on the east side are a thing of the past. Ventilation pattern is phenomenal now. Starting to wow me now. Looks sub-890 mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 I'm pretty sure it doesn't get much more impressive than this. It actually looks quite a bit like Dean did at peak intensity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 PAGASA has raised Storm Signal 4 for Samar, Leyte, and Biliran Islands. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 I think this is probably the most impressive storm on satellite imagery I've seen in my 9 years of tracking tropical cyclones.-Round, symmetric, circular CDO: check -Continuous ring of <-80 cloudtops: check. -Warm, dry eye: check. This is classic T8.0. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 I think this is probably the most impressive storm on satellite imagery I've seen in my 9 years of tracking tropical cyclones. -Round, symmetric, circular CDO: check -Continuous ring of <-80 cloudtops: check. -Warm, dry eye: check. This is classic T8.0. Just keeps looking better on the IR loops... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 PAGASA has raised Storm Signal 4 for Samar, Leyte, and Biliran Islands. The wording could be improved to highlight the peril to life and limb more explicitly...much of the impact statements center on agricultural and infrastructure risk. #4 should say something like "risk of severe injury or loss of life". I was in Manila for Nari, and IIRC the metro area ended up maxing at signal #2, but it really was a non-event for the city and burbs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 Anyone have any links to live conditions out there? Sent from my XT1060 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 Surge up to 18 feet expected http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/wb/fcst/NOAH%20SS.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blazess556 Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 JTWC raises Haiyan to 165 knots, gusts to 200 knots. These storms make me wish there were still recon flights in the West Pacific basin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 Clearly 190 mph sustained. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 I think this is probably the most impressive storm on satellite imagery I've seen in my 9 years of tracking tropical cyclones. -Round, symmetric, circular CDO: check -Continuous ring of <-80 cloudtops: check. -Warm, dry eye: check. This is classic T8.0. Was just about to say that. Amazing storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1900hurricane Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 The scary thing is that it's probably going to go like this all the way pretty much to landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 It is pretty much on par with Typhoon Tip (Sustained winds are the same essentially but of course different physical size) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 This is just an unreal storm. Rita @ 895 mb is the standard I use for core perfection and this one is right there. It's very difficult for a storm to maintain this kind of intensity for long, but, as the last posted image shows, as of a few hours ago there was no sign of another approaching eyewall replacement cycle and there are only several hours to go before landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
extremewx52 Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 I just looked up the highest gust on earth which was 254 mph and was measured during TC Olivia in 1996. That storm had 1 min sustained wind of 145 mph. With sustained winds of 190 mph it would not be surprising if Haiyan can break that record. The biggest issue will be whether there are observations in the most intense part of the storm, and if the equipment can remain intact and working through the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 Perfect 8.0 all around... The estimates are incredible @ 862mb and 170 knots 2013NOV07 125700 8.0 862.2 +4.2 170.0 8.0 8.0 8.0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.