Super Typhoon Haiyan (split from WPac thread)

[HurricaneJosh]

That is why many, myself included, believe that 895mb was a serious low-ball by the JTWC. Haiyan was probably 875-885mb storm at its peak.

 

Also, keep in mind that pressure-wind relationship is very rough -- large error bars. You mention 889 mb supporting a 145-150 kt storm as if pressure gives us the maximum wind speed with +/- 2.5kts. If you think the relationship is that exact you are kidding yourself.

 

Steve's been around and knows his stuff-- I think he knows this.    Of course, since we're discussing these things based solely on satellite estimates, I think it's understood that all of these are broad estimates.  I agree with Steve that the combo of 895 mb and 170 kt doesn't correspond well to the generally expected wind/pressure relationship in the WPAC.

[HurricaneJosh]

Hey Josh, so thankful we are on the same page and communicating much more clearly!

That being said, I wholeheartedly agree with you on the rarity of a large metropolitan area being impacted by such extreme conditions. Like you mentioned, it's a relatively rare and very significant event, and thankfully so.

In addition to the TCs you mentioned already, I guess we could possibly add Cyclone Tracy in Darwin and the 1900 Galveston hurricane. Those are just a couple off the top of my head. The few we've noted here highlights just how extraordinary it is for such a large metropolitan city to be slammed by category four conditions!

I'm going to call it a night, and I too want to wish you a good one, as well!

 

I didn't include Darwin, as even today it's only about half the size of Tacloban City, but I agree it's still a good example of a perfectly direct hit of a very severe cyclone on a decent-sized city.

 

Interesting, the BoM recently reanalyzed Tracy, and their verdict was 95 kt (10-min), which converts to ~108 kt (1-min), or a Cat 3 on our scale. I personally feel it was a little higher and into our Cat-4 range.  And I know a lot of Darwinians who take very strong issue with what they see as a low-ball estimate from the BoM.

[jordanwx]

Steve's been around and knows his stuff-- I think he knows this.    Of course, since we're discussing these things based solely on satellite estimates, I think it's understood that all of these are broad estimates.  I agree with Steve that the combo of 895 mb and 170 kt doesn't correspond well to the generally expected wind/pressure relationship in the WPAC.

I agree the relationship is off but I interpreted his post as him questioning the max wind estimate based off the pressure estimate. See here: "I find it hard to accept JT's 170kt sustained wind based upon estimated pressure...". IMO, the actual winds were 165-170kts at its peak and it is JTWC's minimum pressure estimate (not max wind estimate) which we should be calling into question. A blend of satellite estimates (which varied from 858mb to 900mb) supports a pressure estimate somewhere in the land of 875-885mb...to me 880mb seems most reasonable.

[HurricaneJosh]

I agree the relationship is off but I interpreted his post as him questioning the max wind estimate based off the pressure estimate. See here: "I find it hard to accept JT's 170kt sustained wind based upon estimated pressure...". IMO, the actual winds were 165-170kts at its peak and it is JTWC's minimum pressure estimate (not max wind estimate) which we should be calling into question. A blend of satellite estimates (which varied from 858mb to 900mb) supports a pressure estimate somewhere in the land of 875-885mb...to me 880mb seems most reasonable.

 

Gotcha-- I see what you're saying.  It seems at least we all agree that the 895 mb/170 kt seems a little off.

[HurricaneJosh]

By the way, has anyone been able to confirm that report of 889 mb from Guiuan, or is that just a rumor?

[aslkahuna]

It's the pressure estimate that I have heartburn over. But it should be noted that STY Tip at 870 mb was not called at 170 kt but 165 kt. Granted thhe W/P relationship is rough but the Megi observations showed that it was decently representative.

Steve

[jordanwx]

It's the pressure estimate that I have heartburn over. But it should be noted that STY Tip at 870 mb was not called at 170 kt but 165 kt. Granted thhe W/P relationship is rough but the Megi observations showed that it was decently representative.

Steve

Glad we are agreeing then...I have the same ache. 895 estimate kills me but it will remain in the books for now.

[bluewave]

A surge animation was recently posted with a zoomed in version near Tacloban.

 

http://ivanhaigh.com/2013/11/23/storm-surge-super-typhoon-haiyan/

 

 

[HurricaneJosh]

A surge animation was recently posted with a zoomed in version near Tacloban.

 

http://ivanhaigh.com/2013/11/23/storm-surge-super-typhoon-haiyan/

 

 

Wow-- really cool find, Chris!  I'm going to post this on the iCyclone Facebook page. Thank you!

 

P.S.  Check it out:  http://www.facebook.com/iCyclone

[bluewave]

Wow-- really cool find, Chris!  I'm going to post this on the iCyclone Facebook page. Thank you!

 

P.S.  Check it out:  http://www.facebook.com/iCyclone

 

You are welcome, Josh. I am glad that you were able to make it out of there ok and help people at the hotel in the process. The video that you put together did a great job of documenting the typhoon there.

[Ginx snewx]

Very interesting explanation of why tsunami like surge can occur. Makes sense and explains the surge video very well.http://m.facebook.com/l.php?u=http%3A%2F%2Fforums.accuweather.com%2Findex.php%3Fshowtopic%3D8169%26st%3D80%26p%3D207935%26%23entry207935&h=TAQHpj5Jx&s=1

[WEATHER53]

Josh-What did you gain from this expereince that you did not have before?

[HurricaneJosh]

You are welcome, Josh. I am glad that you were able to make it out of there ok and help people at the hotel in the process. The video that you put together did a great job of documenting the typhoon there.

 

Thanks, Chris!  I'm really glad you liked it.  I really tried to make it as complete but as short as possible-- to really convey the whole experience in a quick, watchable video.  My original goal was to bring it in under 10 minutes, but this was the best I could do.

 

Josh-What did you gain from this expereince that you did not have before?

 

Omg... Not even sure where to start.  It was a life-changing experience on so many levels-- more than I can even get into here.  Since this is a weather discussion, I'll stay focused on that, and I won't even get into the human-interest dimension of it. As a stormchaser, penetrating the eyewall of a nuclear-grade Cat 5 by the light of day was a whole new level of experience. In fact, up until this cyclone, no chasers had ever penetrated the inner core of a Cat 5 by daylight.  (A couple of guys penetrated Andrew's in Florida, but that was unfortunately in predawn darkness.)

[ncforecaster89]

I was searching through videos on YouTube last night, when I came across this incredible footage of Hiayan. This is the best footage of the extreme winds I've personally seen to date. It was shot at the Community College in Abuyog, Leyte. This specific location was 6.5 nm south of the eye and in the southern eye wall of Hiayan.

It's important to note that this was essentially the first landfall of the southern eyewall, as opposed to the northern eyewall, that had dragged along the southern coast of Samar before it struck the coastal areas of Leyte, such as Tacloban. This is my best guess as to why the winds appear to be stronger on the immediate coastal area of Abuyog (in this video), than what was seen in Tacloban.

In any regard, I found this footage to be very fascinating, and thought others might as well.

[HurricaneJosh]

That's pretty cool!  The wind's just totally rippin'.  Thank God for that one palm in the distance and that small shrub in the foreground, or else there'd be no points of reference, the visibility is so low.  Very, very cool.

[ncforecaster89]

I agree. I can't believe that palm tree is still standing!

Once again, Josh, fantastic job of capturing those extreme winds (and storm surge) in Tacloban!

[HurricaneJosh]

I agree. I can't believe that palm tree is still standing!

Once again, Josh, fantastic job of capturing those extreme winds (and storm surge) in Tacloban!

 

Thanks, Tony.  

 

P.S.  Yeah, that palm is pretty amazing-- the fronds are even staying on it!  It deserves some kind of award.

[andyhb]

Man that footage is ridiculous, easily some periods of >150 mph winds there.

[Normandy]

Holy **** at the last video, and that was the weaker side of the eyewall? Sheesh.

 

Whats interesting to me is that the buildings aren't sustaining massive damage in the foreground.  If that was in the US **** would be flying everywhere

[HurricaneJosh]

I was searching through videos on YouTube last night, when I came across this incredible footage of Hiayan. This is the best footage of the extreme winds I've personally seen to date. It was shot at the Community College in Abuyog, Leyte. This specific location was 6.5 nm south of the eye and in the southern eye wall of Hiayan.

It's important to note that this was essentially the first landfall of the southern eyewall, as opposed to the northern eyewall, that had dragged along the southern coast of Samar before it struck the coastal areas of Leyte, such as Tacloban. This is my best guess as to why the winds appear to be stronger on the immediate coastal area of Abuyog (in this video), than what was seen in Tacloban.

In any regard, I found this footage to be very fascinating, and thought others might as well.

 

I was in Leyte last week and did a fairly thorough survey of the coast, interviewing residents and taking pics of tree damage from Tacloban City down to Abuyog.  

 

The wind damage in Abuyog was not that bad-- and, in fact, much less than regions to the N.  I watched this video again and Michael Laca-- who's good at analyzing this stuff-- watched it, too, and we notice two things: 1) that palm in the background is doing just fine, whereas there were swaths in the N eyewall (including areas in Tacloban City) where palms were totally stripped of all fronds or snapped in half; 2) the loud, machine-like audio-- which is maybe amplified by the building-- perhaps makes it "look" stronger than it is.  I didn't survey the entire city, but in the parts I did see, the palms are overall in pretty good shape.

 

Just an FYI.

[ncforecaster89]

I was in Leyte last week and did a fairly thorough survey of the coast, interviewing residents and taking pics of tree damage from Tacloban City down to Abuyog.  

 

The wind damage in Abuyog was not that bad-- and, in fact, much less than regions to the N.  I watched this video again and Michael Laca-- who's good at analyzing this stuff-- watched it, too, and we notice two things: 1) that palm in the background is doing just fine, whereas there were swaths in the N eyewall (including areas in Tacloban City) where palms were totally stripped of all fronds or snapped in half; 2) the loud, machine-like audio-- which is maybe amplified by the building-- perhaps makes it "look" stronger than it is.  I didn't survey the entire city, but in the parts I did see, the palms are overall in pretty good shape.

 

Just an FYI.

 

Hey Josh. It's important to note that the Community College, where this footage was taken, is a full 7 miles N of the town itself. This is a very important distinction to make for this particular location was substantially much farther into the eyewall.

Although observations of tree damage can be one used as one subjective entity to help estimate possible wind speeds, it's also one of the most difficult to use to accurately guage them. Moreover, the fact that the palm tree you referenced, in the video, was amazingly holding up in the extreme winds shown in the video, shouldn't be used as any indicator of whether those wind speeds were genuinely on par with those captured in other videos-such as those taken in Tacloban.

When one objectively views the video you referenced, and I linked in a previous post, it's still left to one's subjective opinion what those wind speeds might be, and whether or not they are actually less or greater than what was captured in other videos. Unfortunately, we will never truly know since there wasn't an anemometer near the Community College that measured said wind speeds.

Since I have no bias either way, I would reiterate that the winds in that video are still arguably the most dramatic I've personally seen to date. This opinion should in no way take away from the extreme winds you and others captured in downtown Tacloban, itself! Your footage also ranks right up there with some of the best displayed on YouTube-not far behind the Charley footage and the Hugo footage captured in Puerto Rico!

 

Edit:  It's interesting to note that Abuyog Community College (ACC), where the linked video was captured, was 14 nm S of where the center of the eye appears (based on radar imagery) to have come ashore (between Tolosa and Dulag) in Leyte.  Using the same coordinates, this would put your precise intercept location at 14 nm N of the same apparent landfall position.  Based on your own estimate of a specific landfall point, I believe you suggested you were 15 nm N, that would put ACC 13 nm S of where the center of the eye crossed the Leyte coast.

[HurricaneJosh]

Hey Josh. It's important to note that the Community College, where this footage was taken, is a full 7 miles N of the town itself. This is a very important distinction to make for this particular location was substantially much farther into the eyewall.

Although observations of tree damage can be one used as one subjective entity to help estimate possible wind speeds, it's also one of the most difficult to use to accurately guage them. Moreover, the fact that the palm tree you referenced, in the video, was amazingly holding up in the extreme winds shown in the video, shouldn't be used as any indicator of whether those wind speeds were genuinely on par with those captured in other videos-such as those taken in Tacloban.

When one objectively views the video you referenced, and I linked in a previous post, it's still left to one's subjective opinion what those wind speeds might be, and whether or not they are actually less or greater than what was captured in other videos. Unfortunately, we will never truly know since there wasn't an anemometer near the Community College that measured said wind speeds.

Since I have no bias either way, I would reiterate that the winds in that video are still arguably the most dramatic I've personally seen to date. This opinion should in no way take away from the extreme winds you and others captured in downtown Tacloban, itself! Your footage also ranks right up there with some of the best displayed on YouTube-not far behind the Charley footage and the Hugo footage captured in Puerto Rico!

Edit: It's interesting to note that Abuyog Community College (ACC), where the linked video was captured, was 14 nm S of where the center of the eye appears (based on radar imagery) to have come ashore (between Tolosa and Dulag) in Leyte. Using the same coordinates, this would put your precise intercept location at 14 nm N of the same apparent landfall position. Based on your own estimate of a specific landfall point, I believe you suggested you were 15 nm N, that would put ACC 13 nm S of where the center of the eye crossed the Leyte coast.

Hey, Tony--

Abuyog Community College is right in town. Google Maps incorrectly has the town label further S than the actual town, which is the cluster of streets where the College is. The wind damage in this town was noticeably lighter than towns further N.

Thanks for your compliments Re: my footage! I want to emphasize that I'm not in competition with Abuyog Re: who had higher winds-- only coming back here to say I was surprised at the wind damage in the town. If you find the Abuyog footage more dramatic than other footage, no one can take that away from you.

As per my report-- which I think you reference-- I estimated the landfall point to be San Jose, which is between Tolosa and Dulag. I saw nothing on the ground to contradict that thinking, and residents there reported a solid lull, so that remains my estimate.

[Cypress]

Super Typhoon Haiyan Storm Surge Survey Finds High Water Marks 46 Feet High

 

incredible  http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=2676

 

 

[HurricaneJosh]

They surge values are cool, but the track of the center is way off in that Tajima study—like way.

 

They have the landfall point near Tanauan, which is very far N of where JMA put it (Dulag), where PAGASA put it (Tolosa), and where I put it (in Tolosa, 2.7 n mi S of Downtown).  My analyzed landfall location is based on interviews with about 50 residents in towns all along the coast. Only some residents in Tanauan reported calm, and those that did said it was very brief—whereas Tolosa had a longer, more distinct calm that was universally reported by all residents.  Given this, the landfall point here is way too far N.

 

My findings and detailed landfall map can be found here:  http://www.icyclone.com/upload/now/apr_2014/iCyclone_HAIYAN_in_Tacloban_City_040314.pdf

[wxmeddler]

They surge values are cool, but the track of the center is way off in that Tajima study—like way.

 

They have the landfall point near Tanauan, which is very far N of where JMA put it (Dulag), where PAGASA put it (Tolosa), and where I put it (in Tolosa, 2.7 n mi S of Downtown).  My analyzed landfall location is based on interviews with about 50 residents in towns all along the coast. Only some residents in Tanauan reported calm, and those that did said it was very brief—whereas Tolosa had a longer, more distinct calm that was universally reported by all residents.  Given this, the landfall point here is way too far N.

 

My findings and detailed landfall map can be found here:  http://www.icyclone.com/upload/now/apr_2014/iCyclone_HAIYAN_in_Tacloban_City_040314.pdf

 

The good news is that Dr. Masters linked your report in his blog. It's a bit farther down, but still there.

[HurricaneJosh]

The good news is that Dr. Masters linked your report in his blog. It's a bit farther down, but still there.

 

Thanks, James-- I was glad to see that.  P.S.  Good luck on the Plains this week!  

[HurricaneJosh]

Hi, folks-

 

I've been doing some really exhaustive research on HAIYAN over the last six months.

 

Here you can download my detailed report on the cyclone's impact in Leyte: http://www.icyclone.com/now/2014/apr/03-april-2014.html

 

And below is an infographic I produced for the AMS tropical conference.

 

Enjoy!

 

[Windspeed]

Great work, Josh! I do have a question, however. You have "first time since 1979 ... ". Wouldn't Hurricane Andrew bend that? I mean, technically, the eyewall did not cross over downtown Miami. However, it did cross over the southern metropolitan and suburban areas of Coral Gables, Kendall, the Bay, Homestead, etc., with highest estimated sustained winds of 165 mph. I always figured that as the last great Cat 5 to directly impact a large metropolitan area. Anyway, thanks for all the hard work man!

[HurricaneJosh]

Great work, Josh! I do have a question, however. You have "first time since 1979 ... ". Wouldn't Hurricane Andrew bend that? I mean, technically, the eyewall did not cross over downtown Miami. However, it did cross over the southern metropolitan and suburban areas of Coral Gables, Kendall, the Bay, Homestead, etc., with highest estimated sustained winds of 165 mph. I always figured that as the last great Cat 5 to directly impact a large metropolitan area. Anyway, thanks for all the hard work man!

 

I based it on whether a city proper was in a Cat-5 eyewall-- not a metro area.  And the last time that occurred was Santo Domingo in David 1979.  Miami proper was not in Andrew 1992's eyewall and Cancun proper was not in Gilbert 1988's.  Tacloban City was in Haiyan's eyewall.  As per my landfall map, I don't think the absolute highest winds raked Downtown, but Downtown was in that core-- and the S outskirts of the city proper, a couple miles S of Downtown, had a pocket of wind damage that hit the top of my five-point scale I used for my survey. (That's the N-most instance of Level-E damage on the map.)

 

This aside, thank you for the kind words-- glad you liked the research!!  

 

[Windspeed]

Understood. Thanks for clarifying/clearing that up. And good luck at the conferences this year! I'm sure you'll be a very busy bee.