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Super Typhoon Haiyan (split from WPac thread)


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It went the way of every other settlement in the eastern Philippians in history.

 

most likely, especially when that backside came through..

 

anyway, a PAGASA spokesperson was quoted as saying that the Japan-donated Doppler Radar in Guiuan was rated to survive winds of up to 250kph (didn't specify if gusts or sustained).. they're also trying to salvage any instruments in the site; hopefully they still have wind and pressure data saved...

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most likely, especially when that backside came through..

anyway, a PAGASA spokesperson was quoted as saying that the Japan-donated Doppler Radar in Guiuan was rated to survive winds of up to 250kph (didn't specify if gusts or sustained).. they're also trying to salvage any instruments in the site; hopefully they still have wind and pressure data saved...

pics show it being obliterated
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Ugly...Giant bulldozer. Seeing that makes the death toll of 10,000+ seem very plausable. One could say that it was the poor construction and infustructure that contributed to the loss of life. That may be so but I'd say that this storm would've kicked anyone's azz, developed country or not. Sad :(

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For what it's worth, the president of the Philippines believes the death toll will be much less than the estimated 10,000 number we keep hearing.  One small time Tacloban City official just gave the quick 10,000 estimate without much to back it up and I fear the media ran with it.  The official count has been leveling off in the last couple days... from 1200 to 1700... so I wouldn't be surprised if the president was right and the final number could fall in the 2000-2500 range.   

 

http://worldnews.nbcnews.com/_news/2013/11/12/21417940-typhoon-haiyan-philippines-president-says-death-toll-could-be-far-lower-than-worst-estimates?lite

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For what it's worth, the president of the Philippines believes the death toll will be much less than the estimated 10,000 number we keep hearing.  One small time Tacloban City official just gave the quick 10,000 estimate without much to back it up and I fear the media ran with it.  The official count has been leveling off in the last couple days... from 1200 to 1700... so I wouldn't be surprised if the president was right and the final number could fall in the 2000-2500 range.   

 

http://worldnews.nbcnews.com/_news/2013/11/12/21417940-typhoon-haiyan-philippines-president-says-death-toll-could-be-far-lower-than-worst-estimates?lite

 

The official count of 1700 only includes ~200 from Tacloban. Given the stories of bodies lying everywhere in Tacloban, that 200 count may be off by an order of magnitude. I don't think the death toll will reach 10,000, but something like 5000 is within the realm of possibility.

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For what it's worth, the president of the Philippines believes the death toll will be much less than the estimated 10,000 number we keep hearing.  One small time Tacloban City official just gave the quick 10,000 estimate without much to back it up and I fear the media ran with it.  The official count has been leveling off in the last couple days... from 1200 to 1700... so I wouldn't be surprised if the president was right and the final number could fall in the 2000-2500 range.   

 

http://worldnews.nbcnews.com/_news/2013/11/12/21417940-typhoon-haiyan-philippines-president-says-death-toll-could-be-far-lower-than-worst-estimates?lite

 

Well for the president's estimate to be right the death toll better stop rising quick, it's at 2344 (second deadliest Philippine typhoon) already.

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it appears to some the president on purpose is trying to downplay the number of deaths..hundreds of bodies have been buried by there relatives already and not counted plus there are scores of bodies still lying on the streets in tacloban alone..what about the other areas affected..if this is the case shame on him..

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Well for the president's estimate to be right the death toll better stop rising quick, it's at 2344 (second deadliest Philippine typhoon) already.

 

I wasn't saying he was correct, I was simply reporting it... that's why I said "for what its worth."  I just get annoyed with the 10,000 number being thrown out so recklessly as truth when it was just one official giving an estimate he could know nothing about.

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I know a few of these have been thrown around, but most have been slightly to highly inaccurate in terms of size or temperature scale conversion.  This appears to be the best so far, courtesy UWisc.

 

Haiyan vs Katrina:

attachicon.gif6a233d.png

 

Keep in mind the tropospheric height, Leyte and Samar are near the latitude of Costa Rica.  Thunderstorm cloud tops are able to get much higher at lower latitude.

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I just came across this story with an extensive slide show and a five-minute video which starts with eye passage relative calm and ramps up to what looks like cat-3/4 conditions -- taken at San Ysidro located north of Ormoc in northern Leyte.

 

http://www.examiner.com.au/story/1905673/gallery-video-in-the-path-of-yolanda/

 

The report is from a newspaper in Australia. Very dramatic video, if it seems tame in the first minute keep watching, it gets more intense towards 2-3 min. Roofs peel off houses at one point. Rather good news to read that in this town of 29,000 there were no reported fatalities.

 

From the map, and my recall of where the eye was relative to Ormoc (10-15 miles north) the eye encounter must have been very brief here as the town was situated near the northern eyewall. This is therefore as good a sample as we can hope to see of conditions after crossing Leyte.

 

Somewhat further north on Biliran Island the following reports and videos were posted ... not as dramatic but damage apparently extensive here with five deaths mentioned.

 

http://biliranisland.com/blogs/?p=4968

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I just came across this story with an extensive slide show and a five-minute video which starts with eye passage relative calm and ramps up to what looks like cat-3/4 conditions -- taken at San Ysidro located north of Ormoc in northern Leyte.

 

http://www.examiner.com.au/story/1905673/gallery-video-in-the-path-of-yolanda/

 

The report is from a newspaper in Australia. Very dramatic video, if it seems tame in the first minute keep watching, it gets more intense towards 2-3 min. Roofs peel off houses at one point. Rather good news to read that in this town of 29,000 there were no reported fatalities.

 

Wow @ 2:45 when the roof comes flying off...

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I don't know how there is anything less then 10,000 deaths.  Thats probably going to end up being a conservative number.

 

 

I'm trying to raise enough money to go to the Philippines next month and help out any way I can.  Anybody here have any ideas or know of any groups that are looking for people to go?

 

Do you have any unique skills that would be useful in the Philippines?  If not, the thousand dollars it would cost to get you to the other side of the planet would be much better spent on financial support for relief organizations that are already there, operated by locals.

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If the above refers to the San Ysidro video that I posted, the sequence is from eye conditions at start through worst of eyewall, followed by an apparent pause of several hours and further video of aftermath conditions at least hours if not a day or more later. I don't think they included any video from the approach stage before getting into the eye.

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Was looking at the latest numbers from the NDRRMC (Philippines disaster planning agency) and its rather disturbing. Over 2,000 deaths in the coastal towns south of Tacloban (i.e. Palo, Tanuaun, etc.) alone. It is also clear the numbers they have for Tacloban have to rise significantly...:(

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I know a few of these have been thrown around, but most have been slightly to highly inaccurate in terms of size or temperature scale conversion.  This appears to be the best so far, courtesy UWisc.

 

Haiyan vs Katrina:

 

How high of an altitude is a -85C cloud top?  55,600 ft, based off a recent sounding in Philippines.

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Theres all this talk of clear sky eye video, but I was wondering has any video like that ever been recorded from below?  You know cat4 to sunny blue skies back to cat4 winds?

I'd love to see that, but don't believe there's any real interest in obtaining it (probably because of little research or meteorological benefit perceived to be obtained from it). I had suggested to Jeff Masters several years ago, doing this by including a video camera attached to a dropesonde, released from a hurricane hunter's plane, which would relay digital images back to the plane). Would be interested to see the sea state, and sky conditions with possibly the coliseum effect of the eye wall, from the vantage point of being near the surface.

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Reposted here for opinions.

Most know that surge from a tropical cyclone is usually a rapid buildup of water with waves on top etc. I wondered when the tsunami type reports came in why this storm was different. Here is video that at the end indeed shows a Tsunami type situation occurred. Pretty dramatic, it shows how incredibly strong and intense this wave was. I will not speculate on the cause but will be eager to read others opinions.

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