Super Typhoon Haiyan (split from WPac thread)

[wxtrackercody]

Now the busiest year since 1994.

 

[andyhb]

Haiyan now forecast to reach 130 kts at 18z Thursday per the latest JTWC advisory (likely will be higher).

 

Should still be quite strong when it reaches Luzon.

[wxtrackercody]

Haiyan has a beautiful structure with a well-defined eye already visible on microwave imagery. There is little in the way to impede development prior to landfall.

 

[Superstorm93]

Up to 65 knots. 

 

Very likely to become a STY with this rate of intensification. 

 

[Ed Lizard]

iCyclone may be chasing a very high end Cat 4, maybe a Cat 5

[icebreaker5221]

Looks like Typhoon Haiyan is well on its way to becoming a real beast, could hit cat 5?  The West Pac has just been prolific the second half of the season, making up for a lot of lost ground in terms of global ACE.

[Superstorm93]

Should absolutely explode over the next 12-24 hours or so as this traverses the highest heat content in the region with virtually no limiting factors. An EWRC shouldn't even be a concern for a while since the core formed yesterday. 

2013NOV05 173000  6.5  940.2 127.0  6.5 6.7 6.7  NO LIMIT  OFF  OFF

Definitely feeling a 140 knot STY with this one. 

 

[Ed Lizard]

Mildy curious this doesn't seem to have an easier to remember/pronounce Pagasa name yet.

 

 

Just a note- October 15th a 7.3 earthquake hit the Easternmost island in the Visayas.  Damage was also heavy in Cebu.  YouTube of the Basilica Minore del Sto. Niño on Cebu collapsing in the earthquake.     Santo Niño de Cebú was the first church established in the Philippines, in 1521, the current church building dates to 1740.  http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Lnxq1xS2dmU

(All sources, except hotlinks, Wiki)

 

The people of Bohol are hardy stock, I was just checking the internet, November 1st and 2nd (All Saints Day and All Souls Day) are traditional days to visit the graves of loved ones, people observed the holiday despite some of the tombstones toppled and the caskets exposed.

 

The San Pedro church (the current church building dates to 1734, the original church was built by Jesuit missionaries in 1602, (Wiki)) had survived almost 300 years of typhoons and earthquakes.  I'm all in favor of exciting storm chases, but a weaker than expected storm or a track further North would be a good thing.  IMHO

 

 

 

 

[Ed Lizard]

Just saw it will be given the Filipina name of 'Yolanda' when it enters the Pagasa area of responsibility.

[turtlehurricane]

Pinhole eye! Haiyan is undergoing some serious rapid intensification, Dvorak already up to 130 mph.

 

[phil882]

Oh this is well on its way to Cat 5 intensity... will probably undergo an ERC before landfall, but its likely it will be a successful ERC event which shouldn't increase the size of the TC substantially (given its low latitude and limited absolute vorticity surrounding the system). This is like Bopha all over again.

[Superstorm93]

Oh this is well on its way to Cat 5 intensity... will probably undergo an ERC before landfall, but its likely it will be a successful ERC event which shouldn't increase the size of the TC substantially (given its low latitude and limited absolute vorticity surrounding the system). This is like Bopha all over again.

 

That's exactly what I have been thinking since I saw it forming. 

 

Bopha was one hell of a STY and probably one of my favorite since I started tracking in the WPAC. 

[patrick05]

Just saw it will be given the Filipina name of 'Yolanda' when it enters the Pagasa area of responsibility.

 

their "responsibility" begins at 135E so they'd probably give it that name later tonight...

 

as far as the earthquake, the areas impacted will definitely get some rains... hopefully, the strongest winds stay farther north... there are still people in evacuation areas especially in Bohol...

 

not sure about Josh, but if he'll chase, the southern half of Samar Island has a couple of nicely-sized towns and a big city (Tacloban) on another island is physically connected by a bridge (longest in the country)... current JTWC track is putting the center around that area...

[Amped]

Oh this is well on its way to Cat 5 intensity... will probably undergo an ERC before landfall, but its likely it will be a successful ERC event which shouldn't increase the size of the TC substantially (given its low latitude and limited absolute vorticity surrounding the system). This is like Bopha all over again.

 

It's approaching 8N now which is pretty far south for a TC, nowhere close to a record though.

[Superstorm93]

Some perspective...

 

[Ed Lizard]

RGB loop

[andyhb]

Looks like as of the 6z update we have ourselves the 5th super typhoon of the year.

[hm8]

ADT up to 6.9 (7.1 adj. T#)

[Superstorm93]

RAW T up to 7.8

 

2013NOV06 125700 7.6 904.1 158.0 7.6 7.8 7.8 

 

[Superstorm93]

18z best track has Haiyan at 150 knots 

31W HAIYAN 131106 1800 8.2N 134.4E WPAC 150 911

[1900hurricane]

I imagine restricted outflow on the east side probably prevented the raw T numbers from maxing the scale.

 

[eyewall]

Any idea on what the central pressure may actually be? JMA has a 905mb estimate which seems reasonable at this intensity.

[Superstorm93]

Any idea on what the central pressure may actually be? JMA has a 905mb estimate which seems reasonable at this intensity.

 

FWIW, ADT estimates bottomed out at 875mbs earlier today, so a compromise of both should yield something close to reality. It also looks like Haiyan probably peaked in intensity and should begin an EWRC within the next 24 hours, so the 135 knot landfall intensity shown by the JWTC seems pretty plausible. 

2013NOV06 155700  7.7  875.4   +4.8  161.0  7.7 7.8 7.8

[eyewall]

 

FWIW, ADT estimates bottomed out at 875mbs earlier today, so a compromise of both should yield something close to reality. It also looks like Haiyan probably peaked in intensity and should begin an EWRC within the next 24 hours, so the 135 knot landfall intensity shown by the JWTC seems pretty plausible. 

2013NOV06 155700  7.7  875.4   +4.8  161.0  7.7 7.8 7.8

 

Incredible numbers to be sure! I would agree on the 135 knot thinking.

[turtlehurricane]

Any idea on what the central pressure may actually be? JMA has a 905mb estimate which seems reasonable at this intensity.

Based on this paper it seems a 150 kt hurricane has a delta P of ~100 mb, and pressures in the Philippines are between 1005-1010 mb, so 905 mb seems pretty reasonable. I wish we could get a dropsonde into this to see for sure, or at the least a radial profile of wind speed, from which you could calculate the gradient wind and associated pressure drop.

 

http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/WAF965.1

[Ed Lizard]

I'm not sure an EWRC is imminent.

 

Cloud tops may have warmed a smidge, but I think it maintains or nearly maintains next few hours.

 

 

[hm8]

[1900hurricane]

I'm not sure an EWRC is imminent.

 

Cloud tops may have warmed a smidge, but I think it maintains or nearly maintains next few hours.

It looks to me that eyewall replacement has already come and gone. A 1112Z SSMIS pass showed a spiral band closing off in very close proximity to the eyewall. The next good microwave pass, a 1829Z SSMI pass had a rather broad temperature gradient from the coldest updrafts in the eyewall to the eye, which is usually a sign of a recently completed eyewall replacement cycle with a dissipating inner eyewall. It seems an eyewall replacement cycle may have occured in the slightly over seven hours that passed between microwave passes.

 

[ineedsnow]

Last Updated: 11/6/2013, 1:00:00 PM (Eastern Standard Time)

Wind: 175 MPH

Location: 8.2N 225.6E

Movement: W at 20 mph\

 

wow and wind gust to 210 

[Amped]

Occasionally it looks like there might be some NE shear trying to get to the core. The eye is still +12c  and it's an ADT7.1.  so 175mph might be accurate.