11/13 - 11/16 Potential Storm Threat

[CoastalWx]

Does P001 look a little like the Euro or what?  Even further inland with the precipitation though and closer to the coast.  Has another near miss with P005 in later frames too.  Had no members that were hits on prior run.  

 

What are you locking in?

[Edge Weather]

I am not locking in anything at this point.  There is a very real possibility that this storm will head out to sea or not happen at all, but I believe there is also a real possibility that this storm will happen.  I guess I am just leaning more heavily towards it than against it at this point.  It would also NOT surprise me at all if the Euro lost this storm for a few runs then brought it back.  Remember Boxing Day, the Euro had that one at 7-5 days, then lost it until 24 hours out.  I am leaning more towards it than against it, but I am definitely not ready to lock anything in 7 days out.  If by any chance the Euro does this for another couple of runs, then I WILL lock it in, but I honestly don't expect such an easy forecast.  That would make the forecast too easy now right?  It does not usually work like that.  We need to work for our money a bit.  Besides it makes it more interesting this way also.  

 

What are you locking in?

[Saturn510]

Do you guys secretly hope the EURO is wrong so when the rest of the models show a snow storm and the Euro says no , you give yourself hope. Lol. Here you have the opposite and everyone dismisses it and says the Euro is wrong. It is pretty rare that we have DR No on our side. Loved watching the weather channel showing both gfs and euro last night and mentioned the euro much superior to the gfs and one of the hosts said its usually the "answer key" haha.

[NycStormChaser]

I am not locking in anything at this point. There is a very real possibility that this storm will head out to sea or not happen at all, but I believe there is also a real possibility that this storm will happen. I guess I am just leaning more heavily towards it than against it at this point. It would also NOT surprise me at all if the Euro lost this storm for a few runs then brought it back. Remember Boxing Day, the Euro had that one at 7-5 days, then lost it until 24 hours out. I am leaning more towards it than against it, but I am definitely not ready to lock anything in 7 days out. If by any chance the Euro does this for another couple of runs, then I WILL lock it in, but I honestly don't expect such an easy forecast. That would make the forecast too easy now right? It does not usually work like that. We need to work for our money a bit. Besides it makes it more interesting this way also.

Great post.

[CoastalWx]

I am not locking in anything at this point.  There is a very real possibility that this storm will head out to sea or not happen at all, but I believe there is also a real possibility that this storm will happen.  I guess I am just leaning more heavily towards it than against it at this point.  It would also NOT surprise me at all if the Euro lost this storm for a few runs then brought it back.  Remember Boxing Day, the Euro had that one at 7-5 days, then lost it until 24 hours out.  I am leaning more towards it than against it, but I am definitely not ready to lock anything in 7 days out.  If by any chance the Euro does this for another couple of runs, then I WILL lock it in, but I honestly don't expect such an easy forecast.  That would make the forecast too easy now right?  It does not usually work like that.  We need to work for our money a bit.

 

This seems to be a thread the needle deal and it will be awfully difficult. I'd lean against, but that's me.

[CoastalWx]

You guys are also ignoring the more skilled ensemble.

[ORH_wxman]

Do you guys secretly hope the EURO is wrong so when the rest of the models show a snow storm and the Euro says no , you give yourself hope. Lol. Here you have the opposite and everyone dismisses it and says the Euro is wrong. It is pretty rare that we have DR No on our side. Loved watching the weather channel showing both gfs and euro last night and mentioned the euro much superior to the gfs and one of the hosts said its usually the "answer key" haha.

 

 

Its 6 days out, if it was something like 84 hours out, it would be a different beast right now. If the Euro had some support from its own ensembles, I'd think more highly of the chances for this storm....but given its own ensembles decidely do NOT support the OP run and the synoptic flow for this storm has a lot of issues with it, there's plenty of reason to hedge wide right.

[Guest Imperator]

Finally a voice of reason among all these weenies that treat models like a videogame on their X box.

Its 6 days out, if it was something like 84 hours out, it would be a different beast right now. If the Euro had some support from its own ensembles, I'd think more highly of the chances for this storm....but given its own ensembles decidely do NOT support the OP run and the synoptic flow for this storm has a lot of issues with it, there's plenty of reason to hedge wide right.

[Edge Weather]

How are we ignoring the European ensembles when they have shown virtually the same exact thing for the past 3 runs in a row?  This is courtesy of WxMan1 in the Middle Atlantic forum.

 

We now have the 00Z 11/08 EC ensemble member snowfall output.  Below are the number of members with at least 1, 4, 6, and 10 inches total cumulative snowfall (for DCA):

 

                                           At least 1”                  At least 4”                  At least 6”                  At least 10”

 

 

00Z 11/07/13 Run                   21                                12                               7                                3

12Z 11/07/13 Run                   26                                14                               9                                5

00Z 11/08/13 Run                   28                                10                               8                                4

 

 

Its 6 days out, if it was something like 84 hours out, it would be a different beast right now. If the Euro had some support from its own ensembles, I'd think more highly of the chances for this storm....but given its own ensembles decidely do NOT support the OP run and the synoptic flow for this storm has a lot of issues with it, there's plenty of reason to hedge wide right.

[NEG NAO]

Henry Marugsity from Accuweather stated he likes the Euro evolution for next week (via Twitter)

is that supposed to give us a warm fussy feeling ? lol - still remembering his Sandy call several days out saying it was going out to sea

[PB GFI]

Right now the only thing I see supporting the Euro OP is the evolution of the shorter wavelengths that may do the trick. But I do agree ORH the Euro ENS is east so that worries me much more than if the GFS sees it in its mid range

Last point and mayb it's just because I would like see this evolve the Euro doesn't usually miss the bigger stuff , so if the ENS start to see it

I'm biting

[ORH_wxman]

How are we ignoring the European ensembles when they have shown virtually the same exact thing for the past 3 runs in a row?  This is courtesy of WxMan1 in the Middle Atlantic forum.

 

We now have the 00Z 11/08 EC ensemble member snowfall output.  Below are the number of members with at least 1, 4, 6, and 10 inches total cumulative snowfall (for DCA):

 

                                           At least 1”                  At least 4”                  At least 6”                  At least 10”

 

 

00Z 11/07/13 Run                   21                                12                               7                                3

12Z 11/07/13 Run                   26                                14                               9                                5

00Z 11/08/13 Run                   28                                10                               8                                4

 

 

 

That might be useful if I lived in DC.

 

Have you even seen the ensembles? They don't support the OP run...maybe like 5 members out of 52.

[Edge Weather]

How does that compare with the prior two runs?

 

That might be useful if I lived in DC.

 

Have you even seen the ensembles? They don't support the OP run...maybe like 5 members out of 52.

[CoastalWx]

How does that compare with the prior two runs?

 

The mean is east.

[Edge Weather]

Also, is not the operational run at a MUCH higher resolution than all the individual ensemble members, therefore averaging of the individual members would be night and day anyway, except in a much easier forecast.  Is that not correct?  How did the ensemble average do with Sandy and Boxing Day in comparison to the operational model?  

 

 

That might be useful if I lived in DC.

 

Have you even seen the ensembles? They don't support the OP run...maybe like 5 members out of 52.

[Edge Weather]

I am not concerned with the mean, I am asking about the number of individual members on each run.  The ones that were a significant hit did NOT change in DC.  How about up here.  I don't have access to that information and would be interested if you have it.

 

The mean is east.

[Guest Imperator]

I am not concerned with the mean, I am asking about the number of individual members on each run.  The ones that were a significant hit did NOT change in DC.  How about up here.  I don't have access to that information and would be interested if you have it.

 

He said only 5 of the 52 looked like the OP.

[Edge Weather]

Right, but on the prior two runs before this run, how many.  I am indeed looking to see if we have fewer or more member coming on board.

 

He said only 5 of the 52 looked like the OP.

[IntenseBlizzard2014]

Still not convinced by the ECM. The reality of the Ridge/Trough axis will be too far east for any true amplification.

[Guest Imperator]

Right, but on the prior two runs before this run, how many.  I am indeed looking to see if we have fewer or more member coming on board.

 

I dont know if ORH or anyone else that has other things to worry about has the time to look at old news. Regardless, you cant get much more worse against the operational than 47 of 52.

[CoastalWx]

I can't see individual members, but regardless it's more important to notice trends. Of course anything can happen 7 days out, but it's probably not a good idea to convince yourself why one member like the operational run or the control run might be more right than wrong. I also think the GFS op is probably too flat...maybe something middle of the road like the Canadian is possible?

[Edge Weather]

That is called weather forecasting.  Isn't that why we are all here?

 

I dont know if ORH or anyone else that has other things to worry about has the time to look at old news. Regardless, you cant get much more worse against the operational than 47 of 52.

[IsentropicLift]

Just took a look at the 00z Euro. It got back to the idea of keeping the initial precipitation associated with the arctic front over the region which is further north than any other model. In fact, precipitation begins at hour 114 and is continuous through hour 168. It's actually a very quick hitting coastal that is in and out of here in less than 18 hours with a grand majority of the precipitation falling in a twelve hour period.  

 

Taking a look at the thermal profiles more closely, the low is in nearly the most perfect position that it could possibly be in. 50 miles further west and the coast is all rain and 50 miles further east and most of us are high and dry.

 

Taking a look at the rest of the guidance and taking into account the model swings that we tend to see as time goes on I see four possible outcomes. I will list them in order from most likely to least likely.

 

1) The flow is too fast and development occurs well offshore. This is agreed upon by the GEFS/ECMWF ensemble means and the GGEM. We end up light snow showers and very cold temperatures for a day or two before the high moves out and things moderate.

 

2) The flow is so fast that the energy never has time to consolidate. The flow is fast and flat and no coastal develops. This is what the GFS has been showing for the past several runs.

 

3) The ridge axis breaks causing the closed low to cut off too quickly and too far to our south and west. The coastal takes forever to develop and by then, the cold air source is long gone. We end up a nice soaking 1-2" rainstorm. The 12z ECMWF showed this exact scenario.

 

4) And last but not least, but the least likely scenario is that we manage to thread the needle. The flow slows down enough allowing the closed low to cut off later. A coastal then develops in enough time, and with a far enough track offshore that it's able to tap into the cold air source and we end up with a mega snowstorm. This is supported by the 00z runs of both the 11/7 and 11/8 ECMWF op.

 

I will go as far as saying that if I had to pick one model to put my money on, it would be the Euro every time. Sure it has had some major screw ups, but it's overall performance record speaks for itself.

[IsentropicLift]

I dont know if ORH or anyone else that has other things to worry about has the time to look at old news. Regardless, you cant get much more worse against the operational than 47 of 52.

I'm going to take a stab and say you know very little about meteorology or model physics. Take a look at model performance statistics and then come back and talk.

[Edge Weather]

Great post but your final statement contradicts your ordering of #'s 1-4 and would argue for the reverse ordering.  

 

Just took a look at the 00z Euro. It got back to the idea of keeping the initial precipitation associated with the arctic front over the region which is further north than any other model. In fact, precipitation begins at hour 114 and is continuous through hour 168. It's actually a very quick hitting coastal that is in and out of here in less than 18 hours with a grand majority of the precipitation falling in a twelve hour period.  

 

Taking a look at the thermal profiles more closely, the low is in nearly the most perfect position that it could possibly be in. 50 miles further west and the coast is all rain and 50 miles further east and most of us are high and dry.

 

Taking a look at the rest of the guidance and taking into account the model swings that we tend to see as time goes on I see four possible outcomes. I will list them in order from most likely to least likely.

 

1) The flow is too fast and development occurs well offshore. This is agreed upon by the GEFS/ECMWF ensemble means and the GGEM. We end up light snow showers and very cold temperatures for a day or two before the high moves out and things moderate.

 

2) The flow is so fast that the energy never has time to consolidate. The flow is fast and flat and no coastal develops. This is what the GFS has been showing for the past several runs.

 

3) The ridge axis breaks causing the closed low to cut off too quickly and too far to our south and west. The coastal takes forever to develop and by then, the cold air source is long gone. We end up a nice soaking 1-2" rainstorm. The 12z ECMWF showed this exact scenario.

 

4) And last but not least, but the least likely scenario is that we manage to thread the needle. The flow slows down enough allowing the closed low to cut off later. A coastal then develops in enough time, and with a far enough track offshore that it's able to tap into the cold air source and we end up with a mega snowstorm. This is supported by the 00z runs of both the 11/7 and 11/8 ECMWF op.

 

I will go as far as saying that if I had to pick one model to put my money on, it would be the Euro every time. Sure it has had some major screw ups, but it's overall performance record speaks for itself.

[IsentropicLift]

Great post but your final statement contradicts your ordering of #'s 1-4 and would argue for the reverse ordering.  

Haha I know that the statement is a little contradicting but thanks for the compliment. It's the weenie in me that tries to defy logic.

[ORH_wxman]

Also, is not the operational run at a MUCH higher resolution than all the individual ensemble members, therefore averaging of the individual members would be night and day anyway, except in a much easier forecast.  Is that not correct?  How did the ensemble average do with Sandy and Boxing Day in comparison to the operational model?  

 

 

Boxing Day actually had significant ensemble support 6 days out...but that is a special case since pretty much all guidance lost the storm between 84 hours out down to about 48 hours out.

 

Sandy's ensemble mean took it up through SE SNE IIRC in the medium range.

 

Regardless, there is no objective reason to be bullish on this storm at 6 days out with minimal support both from model guidance and the longwave pattern progged. That's not a reason to stop watching the models and assume a whiff, but I'd put the chances of a major snowstorm like the Euro shows close to 0...probably about 5% or less. If it snows, its more likely to be something from a weaker overrunning wave along the arctic front before everything gets shunted eastward. In that case, we'd be talking about a minor snowfall...which is still pretty noteworthy in middle November for NYC if it happens.

[Weathergun]

While lack of ensemble and other model support does reduce the chances alot. Looking back, the ECMWF didn't have much ensemble or model support for February blizzard this year until about 96hr. The flow was progressive too and there was also a ridge that popped over the Rockies (this one has a higher amplitude though). We just have to wait have for agreement and consistency from the reliable guidance, before totally dismissing or accepting any solution.

[bluewave]

The NAM/SREF came in more amped closer to Euro/ Ensemble blend.

So it would be west of the GFS but maybe not as far west as the

Op Euro. Possibly something closer to Euro ensemble mean? The

UL is further west near James Bay as opposed to the GFS further

east position at 84 hrs.

[IsentropicLift]

While lack of ensemble and other model support does reduce the chances alot. Looking back, the ECMWF didn't have much ensemble or model support for February blizzard this year until about 96hr. The flow was progressive too and there was also a ridge that popped over the Rockies (this one has a higher amplitude though). We just have to wait have for agreement and consistency from the reliable guidance, before totally dismissing or accepting any solution.

The GFS has just been so unstable that it would not surprise me in the slightest if it completely caved to the Euro at any time. The run to run shifts by the Euro have been more gradual. The GFS also has a known bias for losing storms in the medium range.