Guest Imperator Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 I wrote a discussion on the storm and why it appears unlikely, but I laid out three distinct scenarios. http://www.nymetroweather.com/2013/11/07/potential-scenarios-storm-next-week/ Great write up thanks for sharing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 I wrote a discussion on the storm and why it appears unlikely, but I laid out three distinct scenarios. http://www.nymetroweather.com/2013/11/07/potential-scenarios-storm-next-week/ Great discussion. Thank you for posting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swataz Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 I wrote a discussion on the storm and why it appears unlikely, but I laid out three distinct scenarios. http://www.nymetroweather.com/2013/11/07/potential-scenarios-storm-next-week/ That was great, thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDemon Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 Not only that, its a shame that with so many other problems and issues out there, some weather professionals think they should be the center of attention and to feed their own egos make it a priority that everyone should be worried about if its going to snow next week. When all is said and done, people like me still have to wake up in the morning and go to the office to make a living and not really care if its raining or snowing outside. For every indifferent person like me there's also the sucker that falls into these weather hypesters' trap. Uh . . . ok. It's still a bit exciting to know that there is even the slightest chance of snow next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 Not only that, its a shame that with so many other problems and issues out there, some weather professionals think they should be the center of attention and to feed their own egos make it a priority that everyone should be worried about if its going to snow next week. When all is said and done, people like me still have to wake up in the morning to make a living and not really care if its raining or snowing outside. For every indifferent person like me there's also the sucker that falls into these weather hypesters' trap. Well, as Judge Smails once wisely noted, "the world needs ditch diggers too." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted November 8, 2013 Author Share Posted November 8, 2013 lol you know the GFS was ots when no one posts about it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 Gfs and ggem are ots Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StatenWx Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 Gfs and ggem are ots Hopefully the euro doesn't lose it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 Gfs and ggem are ots So is the 0z UKMET. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 lol you know the GFS was ots when no one posts about it OTS? what do you mean? There gotta be a storm there in the first place to be OTS, the GFS doesn't even show a storm in the first place lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 Euro vs everything else, and the euro is a inland runner, something has to give. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fields27 Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 Euro vs everything else, and the euro is a inland runner, something has to give. Odds say the Euro will be the one to do so. We'll see in a few. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted November 8, 2013 Author Share Posted November 8, 2013 Euro Looks a lot better than the gfs at 142 - if it rides north from its current position it could be a nice run for the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 Either the models bring it back or it's a lost cause. Give it a couple days I suppose, still a very potent cold shot, everybody goes below freezing, some well below all the way down south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 Euro will be farther east than 12z. But it's still way more amplified the other models. Closed 500mb low over Western NC at 144hr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 Either the models bring it back or it's a lost cause. Give it a couple days I suppose, still a very potent cold shot, everybody goes below freezing, some well below all the way down south. It's a lost cause. There's no real blocking over the Western Atlantic Ocean. So therefore, it will escape east and threaten NE Canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 And by 156 there is a sub 984 150 miles east of Delmarva. Any by 162 sub 978 low just SE of BM and were in the CCB getting clobbered Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 Looks very Boxing Day esque in terms of track strength and qpf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted November 8, 2013 Author Share Posted November 8, 2013 Wow this run is epic for the coast... - cant wait to see it on the wunder map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 Roughly 1.5 qpf for NYC and surrounding area basically all frozen. Jackpot would be central jersey Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted November 8, 2013 Author Share Posted November 8, 2013 Basically a perfect scenario this run for the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxoutlooksblog Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 Basically a perfect scenario this run for the coast And the chances of this happening? You do see how volatile the situation is with regards to the various solutions. They are constantly changing and if there's a trend, the Euro will take this OTS by this time tomorrow night or Saturday 12Z. WX/PT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted November 8, 2013 Author Share Posted November 8, 2013 And the chances of this happening? You do see how volatile the situation is with regards to the various solutions. They are constantly changing and if there's a trend, the Euro will take this OTS by this time tomorrow night or Saturday 12Z. WX/PT Yea, ots is still a greater possibility but everything must still be on the table until within 80 hours, especially with recent history in mind. - But having the Euro with the snow idea is a pretty good model to have in your corner if you like snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 And the chances of this happening? You do see how volatile the situation is with regards to the various solutions. They are constantly changing and if there's a trend, the Euro will take this OTS by this time tomorrow night or Saturday 12Z. WX/PT Anything can happen. The GFS and GGEM could trend towards the Euro or the Euro could trend towards them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 The storm is still too far out to be worrying about specific modeling trends. We just have to keep an eye out on the Pacific ridge breaking, as well as how fast the flow is. The flow on this run slowed down a bit as the energy off the west coast retrograded a bit more thanks to the ridge wave breaking, allowing the ridge to not "tip over" as much. Thus, the cutoff low cut off a tad later than the 12z run, giving us a favorable scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 I agree w above about trending towards OTS but the caveat here is that we're still 120-144 hours out so I would refrain from making any concrete assertions, but that's just me. My gut tells me this is OTS and its dry and very cold next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxoutlooksblog Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 Anything can happen. The GFS and GGEM could trend towards the Euro or the Euro could trend towards them. Huge difference from Boxing day. Back then there was an extremely negative NAO, very different now, with +NAO. I highly doubt GFS or GGEM will trend back this far. As I said earlier, I could see a scenario where we ended up the extreme nw edge of the precip, but if it goes amped, we're getting RAIN!...and if it doesn't, it's basically not much of anything....light snow/flurries, melting, etc. WX/PT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 Euro snowmap is just a weenie's fantasy. 12+ for NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted November 8, 2013 Author Share Posted November 8, 2013 The storm is still too far out to be worrying about specific modeling trends. We just have to keep an eye out on the Pacific ridge breaking, as well as how fast the flow is. The flow on this run slowed down a bit as the energy off the west coast retrograded a bit more thanks to the ridge wave breaking, allowing the ridge to not "tip over" as much. Thus, the cutoff low cut off a tad later than the 12z run, giving us a favorable scenario. Love your stuff DSN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 Great write up thanks for sharing. Great discussion. Thank you for posting. That was great, thanks! Thanks for the kind words, everyone! If one looks at tonight's Euro run closely, the wave in the Pacific broke a tad more efficiently, allowing more energy downstream of it to pinch off towards the south and especially west. This put a bit less "pressure" on the downstream ridge, preventing it from breaking like it did with the 12z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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