David-LI Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 Amplified means that the heights are rising out ahead of the trough which = a less progressive pattern and allows the low to come north instead of slipping OTS. thank you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 Going negative tilt at hour 150. base of the trough axis down to the FL panhandle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 Heavy snow in north Georgia at 150 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 Low is cut off over KY at 156. Really nice high pressure in perfect position to the north. Precip still knocking on the door. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 Heavy snow in north Georgia at 150 hrs. Impressive for November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 Another way to think of amplified is in terms of waves. Amplitude measures the peak height of the wave. So when the amplitude is high, the wave is high. This means that ridges are "higher" and the downstream troughs are thus "deeper". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 cONGRATS ATL LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 Really nice coastal taking shape at hour 162. Flow is completely cut off and the low as no other option than to come north. It may actually track inside its 00z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 If anything this might go west of the 0z lol euro and gfs 1000s of miles apart, jesus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 Low is inland at 168 over NC. Precip is over spreading the entire region, but the cold air is starting to erode. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 174 too far west with strong onshore flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manny Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 God, the Euro showing a consistent run back to back, but there's so much time left. The Euro is definitely showing what a combination of certain factors can lead to, and without them, we have the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 The cutoff low cuts off too far south. This can actually be tied back to the progressive pattern. Despite the ridge being amplified, the fast nature of the pattern upstream of it forces it to move east quickly and become unstable. This causes the top of it to break like a wave, forcing the energy to slide more underneath it and pinch off instead of moving east. This is why it cuts off to the south instead of to the east. So ironically, a further west solution can still mean a progressive pattern -- although this is more south and west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 Heavy rain at 174. Surface temps are in the mid to upper 30's well west of NYC and 40's and lower 50's are knocking on the door for eastern sections. I supposed that if the precip is heavy enough that we could wet bulb down a few degrees in inland areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 The Euro continues to read the shorter wave lenghts thats allows this to get trapped and not slip out . The datails RIAN / SNOW are a long way for me to worry about , but I take this a positive that the Euro likes the capture option. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 Well, we did get a hell of a storm, but it will be mostly rain for us. It crushes the western Carolinas and western Virginia with snow but it takes an inland track for us. This is the western most solution though, so any trend would likely be east from here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 180 the rain continues while cold air wraps in around DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 Temps start to crash at hour 186 as the low moves to our north. Move the coastal 100 miles further east and the results would have been very close to 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 Overall looks like a rather routine 1-2" chilly rainstorm. Plenty of time for these things to change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 Overall looks like a rather routine 1-2" chilly rainstorm. Plenty of time for these things to change.which sounds a hellvua a lot more realistic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 which sounds a hellvua a lot more realistic. This would be one very anomalous NOV cold and snow event for interior SE. The Euro drills -10c 850's to just north of ATL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFox Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 the good new here is that it is a coastal storm..fast forward to winter and then we would be in business.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 which sounds a hellvua a lot more realistic. Not really. The Euro and the GFS are now more than 1000 miles apart on a track with a storm less than 7 days out. This 12z run is actually a more extreme version of it's 00z run. That coastal takes a very long time to get its act together and then takes a long time to come north. It's quite possible that the high to the north is being moved out to quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 I'll take a nice storm if the Euro is right, it would be impressive to see snow so far south though in mid November. Any snow before mid December is rare and a gift so I wouldn't expect it. I suppose it's not a bad thing that the Euro is the westernmost solutions while the gfs is the easternmost, which would favor something in the middle perhaps. I'll gladly take a nice soaking rainstorm though, at least it would break the pattern finally. Whether it happens or not is still to be determined. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFox Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 Is their a typo in this threads header. I see "exits" or did he mean "exists"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 It's really too early for anything big snow wise on the coast..water temps just too warm...a month from now it would be much different Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 The cutoff low cuts off too far south. This can actually be tied back to the progressive pattern. Despite the ridge being amplified, the fast nature of the pattern upstream of it forces it to move east quickly and become unstable. This causes the top of it to break like a wave, forcing the energy to slide more underneath it and pinch off instead of moving east. This is why it cuts off to the south instead of to the east. So ironically, a further west solution can still mean a progressive pattern -- although this is more south and west. What remains of the ridge over SE Canada is also giving the cut-off more room upstream to amplify. The ridge is just too progressive for us on this run, if you want snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 Actually better off than I thought. I'll take 8"+ in my backyard in November any day of the week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 Nobody is bringing up the fact that more than 75% of the trees, at least in this area, have almost all their leaves still. This could be a repeat for a lot of areas from the Halloween storm regarding power outages. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 Looking at the zoomed in graphics on the Euro, it would appear that most of the snow accumulations that it shows for western areas are on the backside which is never a reliable occurrence. Our heaviest rain is at hour 180 with a sub 996mb low centered near BWI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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