Dsnowx53 Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 Right, I mean the evolution of it. Euro was so far west that it probably will come east a bit, but may be west of the GFS. East definitely still concerns me due to the fast flow of the pattern, but with that Pacific ridge breaking forcing a retrograde and a ridge popping in the Rockies, I have to say I'm a bit more intrigued than I was yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 12z GEFS mean is a decent hit and two individual members are pretty wrapped up with rain/snow. One just prior to this panel is pretty snowy and looks somewhat similar to the ECMWF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 what time does the 12z Euro come out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 what time does the 12z Euro come out? Starting to come out now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 The ECMWF saw this first at the 0z run on Tuesday, then lost it, then brought it back this morning. You are correct . 12 z GFS had it yesterday then took it east . But yeh 0Z Euro run Tues did show the cut off 1st . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 The 12z GEFS mean has the placement of precipitation nicely right over us with with a temperature structure that looks quite close to the Euro. Honestly the mean of the GEFS looks much like the 0Z Euro in many ways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 Starting to come out now Got it through 24hr now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxoutlooksblog Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 Right, I mean the evolution of it. Euro was so far west that it probably will come east a bit, but may be west of the GFS. I'm still going to argue that the pattern we are in does not support these amped solutions. I am not even close to ready to buy into the idea of a track through the benchmark with cold and accumulating snow with this system and far closer to buying into the suppressed out to sea type solutions. At this time, at best, I'd think we'd be on the northwest edge of this system with periods of light wet snow and rain mixed of little or no consequence. But we shall see what future model runs spit out. WX/PT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 I only know this because I did a quadruple take on Tuesday morning at 4am when I woke up and looked at it. It looked nuts at the time and was the only model showing anything even remotely like that. You are correct . 12 z GFS had it yesterday then took it east . But yeh 0Z Euro run Tues did show the cut off 1st . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
threeyoda Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 what time does the 12z Euro come out? Yes, can someone post a list of the model times now that DST is over and we're heading into the winter season? Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 I'm still going to argue that the pattern we are in does not support these amped solutions. I am not even close to ready to buy into the idea of a track through the benchmark with cold and accumulating snow with this system and far closer to buying into the suppressed out to sea type solutions. At this time, at best, I'd think we'd be on the northwest edge of this system with periods of light wet snow and rain mixed of little or no consequence. But we shall see what future model runs spit out. WX/PT Yeah if you read my earlier posts I'm still thinking a more progressive solution is possible. However, if this has a hair follicle of room to amplify, look out. This can be done by either the euro solution which split the energy and created enough separation to allow the srn s/w to dig for oil, or have the energy like the Canadian to be a bit more concentrated and further north thus allowing for a more frontal/overunning wave turning into a coastal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 Yes, can someone post a list of the model times now that DST is over and we're heading into the winter season? Thanks! It's an hour earlier than previous model times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 I'll believe it when I see it, this is still very far out there so we will see numerous changes, the teleconnections are not favorable for a big coastal storm, and the pattern we've been in has featured very little precipitation over the past two months or more. I'll go with the cold because that is looking very likely, but I think storm will be OTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 That monster pig of an arctic high is still on the Euro. Easily over 1040mb at hour 96. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 Nice 50/50 low there too. And a piece of the polar vortex is dropping down with the big high. That monster pig of an arctic high is still on the Euro. Easily over 1040mb at hour 96. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 Nice 50/50 low there too. Yup, so far I see no major flags. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 if the Euro shows another storm I'm out to the grocery store to buy salt and milk! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 That ridge spike out west looks pretty good... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 The high pressure diving more north to south is actually a sign of the pattern being more amplified and less progressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 That pig of a high is further south this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 The 12z GFS and the 12z Euro at hour 132 are like night and day. The trough axis is hundreds of miles further west on the Euro and digging nicely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 This run is much more amplified. No comparison. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 I think we are going to have one hell of a storm here in a minute. At 138 hrs the low appears to be starting to take shape over inland South Carolina. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 Light snow up to about Philly by 6z Wed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 Pressure falls over SC at 138 with precip to South Jersey. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 This run is much more amplified. No comparison. amplified means good for a snowstorm? explain the difference please Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 Low popping over eastern GA at hour 144. Digging nearly all the way to the gulf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 At 144 hrs snow on our doorsteps. Snow all the way down to northern Alabama and Mississippi. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 amplified means good for a snowstorm? explain the difference please Amplified means that the heights are rising out ahead of the trough which = a less progressive pattern and allows the low to come north instead of slipping OTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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