Guest Imperator Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 They are transient features. But there is a ridge in Western Canada and ULL in SE Canada, 24-48hrs before the storm. Is this a 10/29/11 type situation? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 Maybe our perspective has been tainted by the events of the last few years, but just keep in mind how rare a mid November snowstorm would be for this area. I guess it's possible (although again, I would say the pattern doesn't support it), but it's much more unlikely than likely. Well inland areas would be much more favored, and at high elevations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 Is this a 10/29/11 type situation? Not really. We had a weak west-based -NAO, before the trough amplification. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 6z is way less amplified than the 0z run. The coast gets brushed by the coastal. less amplified ? it is so amplified it drives the storm too far south and east that the coastal areas of the Del Marva get heavy snow - which seems unlikely this early in November in fact the NAO index forecast does not support it http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2013110706/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 Maybe our perspective has been tainted by the events of the last few years, but just keep in mind how rare a mid November snowstorm would be for this area. I guess it's possible (although again, I would say the pattern doesn't support it), but it's much more unlikely than likely. Well inland areas would be much more favored, and at high elevations. Disagree. Cold.air isn't the issue. The issue is the flow. Its either ots or a snow bomb. Cutter isn't happening. There is cold air a plenty. And.climo should be tossed. Look at past two years Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 Disagree. Cold.air isn't the issue. The issue is the flow. Its either ots or a snow bomb. Cutter isn't happening. There is cold air a plenty. And.climo should be tossed. Look at past two years It would take a hugely anomalous upper air low and major lift/VVs to get heavy accumulating snow down to sea level this time of the year. It can be hard enough well inland and over 1000 feet to get accumulating snow this time of year. It's possible but I would say the pattern doesn't argue that strongly for it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 Disagree. Cold.air isn't the issue. The issue is the flow. Its either ots or a snow bomb. Cutter isn't happening. There is cold air a plenty. And.climo should be tossed. Look at past two years One thing we have going for us is with the perfect track there is plenty of juice and energy available for this storm because of the cold air interacting with a still very warm Atlantic BUT the pattern has to amp perfectly with a perfect track which is not likely especially since the NAO index forecast is not supporting it YET Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 It would take a hugely anomalous upper air low and major lift/VVs to get heavy accumulating snow down to sea level this time of the year. It can be hard enough well inland and over 1000 feet to get accumulating snow this time of year. It's possible but I would say the pattern doesn't argue that strongly for it. Huh? I got 9 inches of snow a year ago today. It can happen. Not that tough. I understand long beach sucks for snow but the cold air is canada is very impressive. Keep an eye on that source. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 One thing we have going for us is with the perfect track there is plenty of juice and energy available for this storm because of the cold air interacting with a still very warm Atlantic BUT the pattern has to amp perfectly with a perfect track which is not likely especially since the NAO index forecast is not supporting it YET Agreed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathermedic Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 It would take a hugely anomalous upper air low and major lift/VVs to get heavy accumulating snow down to sea level this time of the year. It can be hard enough well inland and over 1000 feet to get accumulating snow this time of year. It's possible but I would say the pattern doesn't argue that strongly for it. Isn't that what people were saying Oct 2011 and Nov of last year? Yet we still managed accumulating snow here in the city. Point is, just about anything can happen with the weather, and sometimes it does. Interesting to watch how this scenario will play out over the next few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 Isn't that what people were saying Oct 2011 and Nov of last year? Yet we still managed accumulating snow here in the city. Point is, just about anything can happen with the weather, and sometimes it does. Interesting to watch how this scenario will play out over the next few days. Those airmasses were borderline as well, I should say last year's was, the October 2011 air mass was very cold but it was only October, 11/13 is vastly different than October, each week at this time of year astronomically increases the chances for snow at the coast in a borderline setup. The GFS shows -9 850s with strong CAA, that would easily be cold enough for snow with moderate-heavy precip rates in mid November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 we are in a cycle that has early season snowfalls...there have been other times when NYC got early snowfalls in a short period of years...1952 had some snow in October and 1953 had snow in early November...1955 had snow in mid November...it wouldn't surprise me to see another early snowfall but with the predicted storm still a long ways from here I'm not running for milk and eggs yet... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 It would take a hugely anomalous upper air low and major lift/VVs to get heavy accumulating snow down to sea level this time of the year. It can be hard enough well inland and over 1000 feet to get accumulating snow this time of year. It's possible but I would say the pattern doesn't argue that strongly for it. We got between 6 and 9 inches of snow last year a week earlier in an airmass that was not anywhere near as cold as the one progged. I don't think it's that difficult. It's just that cold air is never around this time of year making a snow scenario very unlikely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 Looks like the 12z GFS is going to be well offshore this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 The trough axis is way too far East for us this run, and even though it looks primed to be a bomb at hr 147 it's going to be to little to late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 GFS is further east than the 6z run. Man it's cold tough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 Cold air is in place though but the 12z GFS kicks the storm well east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 Thank god it's the GFS showing this garbage and not the Euro. The flow on the GFS is initially too fast, no cut off low, no negative tilted trough, just a big phase offshore. The low ends up almost 1000 miles east of NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 The only way we can get a big snowstorm in here or any storm for that matter is if that cut off low forms over the TN Valley. Without that it's game, set, match. The 12z GFS looks like the 00z GGEM. I guess it's a possibility but it's hard to go against the Euro, especially when it has decent ensemble support. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wannabehippie Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 The danger with these Pacific dominated blocking patterns is that things get going too late like Christmas 1989. But it will be interesting to see what the Euro comes up with later. The 0z ensembles were east of the OP. 122318.png How are the sea surface temps compared to a year ago when we got an early snow? We all know that this time of year, those temps can be the difference between rain and snow for NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 The 12z GGEM has the cold front with an overrunning wave on it next Tuesday. But the big coastal storm later on, is well offshore. There some precip in the area with inverted trough though at 144hr: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 How are the sea surface temps compared to a year ago when we got an early snow? We all know that this time of year, those temps can be the difference between rain and snow for NYC. The near shore waters are cooler this year, but this will come down to track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 The only way we can get a big snowstorm in here or any storm for that matter is if that cut off low forms over the TN Valley. Without that it's game, set, match. The 12z GFS looks like the 00z GGEM. I guess it's a possibility but it's hard to go against the Euro, especially when it has decent ensemble support. I can easily go against the euro at this range. In fact, I think the risk is more east as opposed to coming up the coast. However, it's certainly on the table at this stage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 With shorter wave lengths , I can see what the Euro sees . The GFS does love to rush everything east time to time . In fairness the GFS was the first to catch this but sometimes the GFS sees it early and loses it in the mid range . If we were in a long wave pattern I would easily be in the whiff camp . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 12z UKMET is MUCH closer to the coast than the GFS and looks quite interesting with the potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 UKMET looks like the Canadian. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 The ECMWF saw this first at the 0z run on Tuesday, then lost it, then brought it back this morning. With shorter wave lengths , I can see what the Euro sees . The GFS does love to rush everything east time to time . In fairness the GFS was the first to catch this but sometimes the GFS sees it early and loses it in the mid range . If we were in a long wave pattern I would easily be in the whiff camp . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 UKMET is quite a bit further west than the Canadian and the GFS and the Euro will probably be even more so due to the higher resolution. The higher resolution models tend to see these storms being closer to the coast for some reason. UKMET looks like the Canadian. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 UKMET is quite a bit further west than the Canadian and the GFS and the Euro will probably be even more so. Right, I mean the evolution of it. Euro was so far west that it probably will come east a bit, but may be west of the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 12z gefs is further west than the op. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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