11/13 - 11/16 Potential Storm Threat

[bluewave]

The Euro ensemble wins again...

[Allsnow]

Euro goes poof

[IsentropicLift]

It still closes off a low at hour 138. Low pressure forming off the Florida coast.

[IsentropicLift]

Way different from previous runs. Low pressure coming north at hour 144.

[WE GOT HIM]

It still closes off a low at hour 138. Low pressure forming off the Florida coast.

Yea the storm is still there unlike the gfs but at this point the gfs seems to have had the right idea first (I have observed it doing well all summer so maybe some of the upgrades have already made it much better than last year)

[jm1220]

Your so called most consistent model is now a whiff. We can put the consistency comments of the euro past day 7 to rest now.

Its dead-on range isn't until within 96 hours. The crazy wrapped-up solutions of the last few days just made no sense to me with a flat, progressive overall pattern.

[ag3]

The flow was faster this run -- the ridge is a bit more unstable and the cold ULL is way further northeast than last run -- as a result the energy dives well south of the already much further east trough axis, so there is no room to turn a corner. 

 

 

The ULL being further NE made it obvious that this run would be a miss from as early as hour 72.

You aren't getting a vort to amplify in time in this flow with the ULL in that position.

[IsentropicLift]

Quite the storm blowing up well offshore at hour 150. Has no chance of reaching us. Another model run and another solution.

[IsentropicLift]

The differences at H5 between the Euro and the GFS are still worlds apart.

 

Looks like for now the threat is closed, although stranger things have happened.

[cleetussnow]

Going to be cold for november in a lot of places in the eastern half of the conus.

[ORH_wxman]

Its dead-on range isn't until within 96 hours. The crazy wrapped-up solutions of the last few days just made no sense to me with a flat, progressive overall pattern.

 

 

People need to stop treating the Euro beyond day 6 as if it is much different from any other global guidance...its big scores really come inside of day 5. Ensemble mean is much better further out than any OP run.

 

I think the fact that Euro data is easier to come by nowadays has more people analyzing a 162 hour prog as if its meaningful. It isn't....if it was something like 90 hours, then it would be worthy of a lot more attention.

[WE GOT HIM]

Threat is not happening. You can track the cold front with some snow flurries possibly.

Yea i still give it about 2% chance at this point, I would want to wait until the first clipper system passes, and we can get a sample, to completely throw in the towel.

- We have seen plenty of storms in the past disappear in this range only to show up 2 days later but this time the pattern is not supportive so everything would have to go just right. (which is a long shot right now) especially with the NAO much more positive than just yesterday for this time frame.

[IsentropicLift]

Quite the cold shot on the Euro extended as well. 30's make it all the way to the FL panhandle.

[Blizzard-on-GFS]

People need to stop treating the Euro beyond day 6 as if it is much different from any other global guidance...its big scores really come inside of day 5. Ensemble mean is much better further out than any OP run.

 

I think the fact that Euro data is easier to come by nowadays has more people analyzing a 162 hour prog as if its meaningful. It isn't....if it was something like 90 hours, then it would be worthy of a lot more attention.

Yes, yes, and yes. When the EURO OP stands alone with no support from it's ensembles or any other model outside of 120 hours there is no reason that it's solution should be taken this seriously. 

[IsentropicLift]

It was exciting to have something to track for the first time in months, regardless of the fact that it was a pipedream.

[JSantanaNYC]

I really didn't understand why everyone even the news were hyping this. I lost faith on the Euro after what happened 2-3 weeks ago with the storm that was suppose to give us plenty of rain.

 

 

Plus, how can we ask for  snow if we can't even get rain around here ..lol

[WE GOT HIM]

I really didn't understand why everyone even the news were hyping this. I lost faith on the Euro after what happened 2-3 weeks ago with the storm that was suppose to give us plenty of rain.

 

 

Plus, how can we ask for  snow if we can't even get rain around here ..lol

There is no excuse for the news to have been hyping this storm, in here is one thing, I think everyone knew chances were low, but as a met you shouldn't hype a storm to the public 9 days out.

[bluewave]

This is why you need to use the ensemble means past 120 hrs:

 

 

 

 

[eduggs]

We've seen this countless times with big storms.  Hints of something big in the long range... disappears as we enter the midrange, only to reappear 2-4 days out.  The problem is it's almost impossible to distinguish these cases from the more typical convergence towards final solution... and ultimate miss.

 

The incipient shortwave that ends up near the Dakotas at day 3.5 (12z data) might be getting lost here.  The final solution is extremely sensitive to this shortwave, so much so that ensemble modeling can't possibly reflect it.  There is so much baroclinicity that it will rapidly and severely amplify the longwave trof.  If this s/w is more defined than the 12z guidance depicts, or if it enters the US at a slightly different angle, the outcome could include the range of stormy solutions shown by most models over the past few days.  The disappearing shortwave scenario has occurred numerous times leading up to big storms. 

 

I suppose it's a reasonable argument to say that the "pattern" doesn't support a high QPF event, but I often get a little lost when discussing the predictive utility of "patterns."  Anomalous events tend to make patterns instead of developing within the confines of them (and are therefore difficult to detect without hints from models).  Unfortunately I think we are kind of at the mercy of the models when trying to sniff things out.  Will the trof develop like yesterday's ECMWF or today's GFS?  It will make a big difference.  The forecasted "speed of the flow" or "progressiveness of the pattern" 5 days from now should not be used to predict the synoptics in the same timeframe.  Both result from the same sequence of causal events.  There is certainly a persistence effect (progressive begets progressive to some extent) and anomalous events are rare by definition.  But this forecast wisdom only works until it fails. 

 

Even in the high impact storm scenarios, the trof develops late and fairly far E (sometimes S or SW).  So this thing would have to really come together fast to pull something off.  But a big ingredient that is usually missing in November, cold air, looks to be in place.  That alone warrants a little excitement and continued model watching from snow starved easterners.  And as others have said, the arctic front looks squally.  I don't think this threat is dead.  It's a common winter situation where we just need to roll double 6s and we'll get buried if we do.

[jm1220]

Everyone on tv was hyping this storm. I had many people ask me if a storm was coming

The hyping has been ridiculous. I guess they learned nothing from the debacle last winter prior to the 2/8 storm, where gas stations and supermarkets were rushed because of people fearing power and gas shortages again. Anything for ratings I guess.

[RU848789]

People need to stop treating the Euro beyond day 6 as if it is much different from any other global guidance...its big scores really come inside of day 5. Ensemble mean is much better further out than any OP run.

 

I think the fact that Euro data is easier to come by nowadays has more people analyzing a 162 hour prog as if its meaningful. It isn't....if it was something like 90 hours, then it would be worthy of a lot more attention.

 

Best post in thread.  My comment on another forum was that there are dozens of individual global model runs at 7 days out showing a major snowstorm, but only a couple a season typically verify.  Would be interesting to actually keep track of that...

[wolfsheepsheadbay]

They were not hyping anything on TV. They simply said a storm was possible. They even repeated "possible" on all stations. They did nothing wrong. Not their fault if the viewers choose to respond foolishly.

[Stormlover74]

They were not hyping anything on TV. They simply said a storm was possible. They even repeated "possible" on all stations. They did nothing wrong. Not their fault if the viewers choose to respond foolishly.

I mostly blame social media. The problem is is this stuff spreads like wildfire so somebody mentions that one model run showed a blizzard and everybody starts freaking out. The media then has no choice but to address it. The problem is most people don't understand the difference between one model run and an actual forecast

[Heisy]

Mentioning a storm possibility on the news is the right thing to do. Can't see why anyone would be upset at that. 

 

Fact remains most people don't have a clue about meteorology & forecasting models so when they see a chance of snow they ignore the word "potential" and have no idea whats going on.

 

------

 

Looking very bleak, but I'm not giving up. If the GFS is to pick back up on the storm I'd say it will in the 84 HR time period where it has in the past during other big snowstorms. 

[Chaser25973]

Well, that was fun to chase, but a blizzard in November is about as possible as a blizzard in May. I for one am glad that the storm isn't coming in November. Each time it snows before December 1, we always get a terrible winter.

[SnoSki14]

If the models show a storm several days out and the teleconnections are very favorable for a snowstorm, then I would strongly believe in a storm. In that case, even if the models lose the storm or displace it, then you really have to look at the pattern as a whole and not individual model runs because it's the pattern in place and teleconnections that tell the tale. 

 

In this situation, the typical parameters that favor a storm are not there so it's not surprising that the storm is gone and may not return on the models. We should get some very nice negative departures with the cold air though, so that's something. It could really change the monthly departures for this month.

[IsentropicLift]

Anyone have the Euro ensembles yet?

[jm1220]

If the models show a storm several days out and the teleconnections are very favorable for a snowstorm, then I would strongly believe in a storm. In that case, even if the models lose the storm or displace it, then you really have to look at the pattern as a whole and not individual model runs because it's the pattern in place and teleconnections that tell the tale. 

 

In this situation, the typical parameters that favor a storm are not there so it's not surprising that the storm is gone and may not return on the models. We should get some very nice negative departures with the cold air though, so that's something. It could really change the monthly departures for this month.

Exactly. There's a difference between modelology and meteorology, and it's easy to see from the overall pattern how the models showing a huge blowing up low were probably out to lunch.

[Weathergun]

Anyone have the Euro ensembles yet?

 

Ensemble mean is weaker and east. Pacific trough further into Central US. I think this threat for us is over.

 

 

[nzucker]

Well, that was fun to chase, but a blizzard in November is about as possible as a blizzard in May. I for one am glad that the storm isn't coming in November. Each time it snows before December 1, we always get a terrible winter.

The idea that early season snowstorms lead to a poor winter is mostly unfounded. Last year we had a 11/7 snowfall and Central Park got 26", around average. I had 52" in Westchester, which represents 130" of average. February was cold and March was frigid.

Nov 27, 2002 was also a major snowfall for SE areas and the NYC metro saw 50-60" of snowfall that winter. My town had over 60" as well as memorable cold in January. November 1995 us another example.

I think the best indication for a warm snowless winter is a dry and mild fall. This year hasn't had much precipitation but the fall is turning out cooler than many expected. September was -1, October was mild, but November has turned sharply colder with a modest cold shot thus weekend and the potential for near record cold next week. I strongly believe November finishes below normal as Tuesday through Thursday should be a string of -10 to -15 departures. NYC might not get out of the 30s Wednesday.