SnoSki14 Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 It's still a nice cold shot though, very strong high moving into the CONUS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 It's still a nice cold shot though, very strong high moving into the CONUS. And what good is that? It's November, it shouldn't feel like January. I never understood the obsession with cold dry patterns that produce nothing but dry skin and high heating bills. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 The 12z GEFS mean is now completely dry leading me to believe that any members that were showing a Euro type solution at 6z are now gone. The 6z Ensemble mean had precip fields back to the lakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 This is why it's always a red flag for the OP Euro when there is significant spread between the ensemble mean. The ensemble mean is the best piece of guidance on average day 6-10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 And what good is that? It's November, it shouldn't feel like January. I never understood the obsession with cold dry patterns that produce nothing but dry skin and high heating bills. Who cares who likes what? Save this for banter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hooralph Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 All we are doing is offering our opinion. When each one of us is throwing an opinion casting doubts on the storm...there are reasons why. Not sure why it's frowned upon to say that the chances of snow are bleak. The last two years have spoiled people into thinking November snows are anything but extremely unlikely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 And what good is that? It's November, it shouldn't feel like January. I never understood the obsession with cold dry patterns that produce nothing but dry skin and high heating bills. Perhaps but having such strong highs diving down now could be a positive heading into winter, especially when it comes to overrunning events, which I think most of our snow threats will come from this season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 This is why it's always a red flag for the OP Euro when there is significant spread between the ensemble mean. The ensemble mean is the best piece of guidance on average day 6-10. MSLP_North32America_144.gif Absolutely. The best one could say at this time is that a meaningful snowstorm is a low probability scenario on the guidance. When climatology is factored in, one should be especially wary of medium-term outlier solutions, until those solutions have support. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 Perhaps but having such strong highs diving down now could be a positive heading into winter, especially when it comes to overrunning events, which I think most of our snow threats will come from this season. It could also be a sign that the pattern is going to be progressive and suppressed. That would favor a big winter for the southern Mid-Atlantic and not much up our way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 The 12z ECMWF has initialized! Will the Euro fold like a cheap suit or hold serve? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 I, for one, am just happy to be here learning and tracking the possibility of a winter storm this early in the season --- regardless of the odds. I've learned through the mets and seasoned posters how to look way up stream for the progressiveness of the pattern and what that means on the other side of the country in an instance like this. Great posting! Thanks to you all that keep this site about learning for me. Sure, I want snow --- and it will surely come. But really, I want to learn and you guys certainly provide more than an ample amount of your time and energy to share your knowledge with folks like me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JCsnow17 Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 I, for one, am just happy to be here learning and tracking the possibility of a winter storm this early in the season --- regardless of the odds. I've learned through the mets and seasoned posters how to look way up stream for the progressiveness of the pattern and what that means on the other side of the country in an instance like this. Great posting! Thanks to you all that keep this site about learning for me. Sure, I want snow --- and it will surely come. But really, I want to learn and you guys certainly provide more than an ample amount of your time and energy to share your knowledge with folks like me. +1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 Through hour 72 I see no major differences with the Euro from its previous run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 This is why it's always a red flag for the OP Euro when there is significant spread between the ensemble mean. The ensemble mean is the best piece of guidance on average day 6-10. MSLP_North32America_144.gif As John put it, it's easy to spot a likely bogus storm just given the overall pattern. With no blocking and a fast zonal flow coming from the Pacific and the West, a major storm blowing up near us just isn't likely. With Sandy, it was easy to see how the pattern supported a Perfect Storm-like evolution because of the massive block which showed up consistently on many models and the strong energy diving in from the Midwest to phase into it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted November 8, 2013 Author Share Posted November 8, 2013 The 12z GEFS mean is now completely dry leading me to believe that any members that were showing a Euro type solution at 6z are now gone. The 6z Ensemble mean had precip fields back to the lakes. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/ENSPRS_12z/ensloopmref.html Yea all misses, Euro needs to hold to buy time for the other models and for me to keep hope lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 I, for one, am just happy to be here learning and tracking the possibility of a winter storm this early in the season --- regardless of the odds. I've learned through the mets and seasoned posters how to look way up stream for the progressiveness of the pattern and what that means on the other side of the country in an instance like this. Great posting! Thanks to you all that keep this site about learning for me. Sure, I want snow --- and it will surely come. But really, I want to learn and you guys certainly provide more than an ample amount of your time and energy to share your knowledge with folks like me. That's the best attitude to have when you're here. And never post like you know more than the professionals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted November 8, 2013 Author Share Posted November 8, 2013 The arctic high is about 5mb stronger at the surface on this run at 96 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 That's the best attitude to have when you're here. And never post like you know more than the professionals. Thanks man. Enjoy your posts as well. The cool part (while we wait for the Euro) is that I can use words like trough, ridge, progressive, Norlun, vertically stacked, deformation, climatology, etc. --- in conversation in the real world and know what the heck I'm talking about thanks to this site. But because I know those terms does not make me one to challenge the very folks who taught them to me. Good luck on this run snow lovers! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 this run is going to show a miss Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted November 8, 2013 Author Share Posted November 8, 2013 heights a little lower at 96 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 The differences between the Euro and the GFS are comical. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 Digging all the way to the gulf at hour 120, I strongly doubt it's going to fold this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted November 8, 2013 Author Share Posted November 8, 2013 The differences between the Euro and the GFS are comical. I cant believe how strong that arctic high is on this run, its almost 31in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 dead Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 The trough axis this run is deeper but flatter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 I love 2 different interpretations of the same model run. Oh well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 Your so called most consistent model is now a whiff. We can put the consistency comments of the euro past day 7 to rest now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 The flow was faster this run -- the ridge is a bit more unstable and the cold ULL is way further northeast than last run -- as a result the energy dives well south of the already much further east trough axis, so there is no room to turn a corner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 I love 2 different interpretations of the same model run. Oh well. one is from a wishcasting weenie and one is from a met. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 12 Z ECM @ 120 hours out! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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