CoastalWx Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 The GFS has just been so unstable that it would not surprise me in the slightest if it completely caved to the Euro at any time. The run to run shifts by the Euro have been more gradual. The GFS also has a known bias for losing storms in the medium range. Euro op is about as unstable if not moreso than the GFS at day 7 and beyond. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 The 12z GFS shows something promising at last. It was close to cutting off the low but the flow was again simply too fast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 the threat is deadyour trolling might as well be also. While it's looking bleak no reason to throw the towel in yet. Rain or Snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 I don't really get what the excitement is about. Pattern doesn't support this, ensembles don't support this, the models that have had it have had absolutely no run-to-run consistency. Has fail written all over it. I'm more interested in the arctic fropa on Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 I wouldn't mind getting any type of snow at this point. That overrunning scenario the ggem has yesterday would be perfectly acceptable to me. Hopefully we get something, even if it's rain, we can use the moisture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 I don't really get what the excitement is about. Pattern doesn't support this, ensembles don't support this, the models that have had it have had absolutely no run-to-run consistency. Has fail written all over it. I'm more interested in the arctic fropa on Tuesday. To be fair I would never expect to see any large degree of run to run consistency at the range we are looking at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 I don't really get what the excitement is about. Pattern doesn't support this, ensembles don't support this, the models that have had it have had absolutely no run-to-run consistency. Has fail written all over it. I'm more interested in the arctic fropa on Tuesday. So you back up your statement with one quote from a met in the New England forum? Until the Euro caves it has to be considered a possibility. We've gotten snowstorms before in worse setups. If the GFS was the one showing the storm and the Euro had nothing it would more merit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 The 12z GEFS should be telling. If the GFS is going to trend any further in the right direction, there should be more members showing hits this time around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 The trend of the Euro has been east so we will see if it continues to trend east. If it does happen again, you can say that the GFS has been better than the Euro of late. Should be interesting to see what happens. The Euro is by itself with the solution. Actually it started as a coastal bomb, then went inland and brought us rain, and is now back off the coast again. This "storm' is not moving in one direction; in fact it is oscillating between off the coast and inland. That doesn't mean this thing can't still be a phantom, just that it hasn't been moving east the whole time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 sandy had ensemble support the entire time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 All we are doing is offering our opinion. When each one of us is throwing an opinion casting doubts on the storm...there are reasons why. Not sure why it's frowned upon to say that the chances of snow are bleak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxoutlooksblog Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 Exactly, declaring a threat over when one of the major models still has a major event is setting yourself up for failure. I think you've been watching the Euro long enough to know its behavior. Firstly, if you go back a week, the Euro had nothing there. It looked just as the GFS looks now. Then, about three days ago, it suddenly blows up this system out of nowhere. Whatever it was picking up on was WRONG. I repeat WRONG. How do we know this? Because almost every model that followed it and had picked up on it has dropped it now for over 24 hours and not only have the other models dropped it, some of them have now completely lost the sharpening trough and all the other features that were WRONG in the first place on those maps. The other models are not that much worse than the Euro and in some cases they are better. This is one of those cases and we saw the same thing last January (I think) with a storm the Euro was first to pick up on and last to drop. WX/PT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 i've seen the euro overamplify SE moving s/w's plenty of times... remember when it busted badly on a 4 day forecast in mid dec 2010? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 All we are doing is offering our opinion. When each one of us is throwing an opinion casting doubts on the storm...there are reasons why. Not sure why it's frowned upon to say that the chances of snow are bleak. I will be happy if I get flurries out of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 All we are doing is offering our opinion. When each one of us is throwing an opinion casting doubts on the storm...there are reasons why. Not sure why it's frowned upon to say that the chances of snow are bleak. I don't think anyone is really frowning upon the opinions themselves. Chances for snow are always bleak around here lol there's a reason why we only average between 25 and 30 inches. It's just that the lead time is so significant that it feels wrong to write something off at 150 hours. To tell you the truth the fact that we are even tracking anything at this lead time is ridiculous. Since when did we start looking at storms at 180+ hours? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 Are we bringing Sandy into this? Last time I checked, you can't relate model performance from a situation that had originated from the Deep Tropics. This storm that we are looking at is from an entirely different origin. A mid latitude cyclone, in a non tropical nature. Although, I agree that this threat is dead so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 I think you've been watching the Euro long enough to know its behavior. Firstly, if you go back a week, the Euro had nothing there. It looked just as the GFS looks now. Then, about three days ago, it suddenly blows up this system out of nowhere. Whatever it was picking up on was WRONG. I repeat WRONG. How do we know this? Because almost every model that followed it and had picked up on it has dropped it now for over 24 hours and not only have the other models dropped it, some of them have now completely lost the sharpening trough and all the other features that were WRONG in the first place on those maps. The other models are not that much worse than the Euro and in some cases they are better. This is one of those cases and we saw the same thing last January (I think) with a storm the Euro was first to pick up on and last to drop. WX/PT The Euro first had this at hour 240 and it was quickly dismissed. The GGEM was the second model to show it. I don't put much stock if any at all in the GGEM. I just think dismissing this threat is a tad premature and I'll leave it at that. I'm not hugging one model or the other. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 sandy had ensemble support the entire time OP is where it's at Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxoutlooksblog Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 I think you've been watching the Euro long enough to know its behavior. Firstly, if you go back a week, the Euro had nothing there. It looked just as the GFS looks now. Then, about three days ago, it suddenly blows up this system out of nowhere. Whatever it was picking up on was WRONG. I repeat WRONG. How do we know this? Because almost every model that followed it and had picked up on it has dropped it now for over 24 hours and not only have the other models dropped it, some of them have now completely lost the sharpening trough and all the other features that were WRONG in the first place on those maps. The other models are not that much worse than the Euro and in some cases they are better. This is one of those cases and we saw the same thing last January (I think) with a storm the Euro was first to pick up on and last to drop. WX/PT If there other major models such as the GFS and GGEM were shifting back and forth, then I'd agree, it would not yet be time to dismiss this threat. But that's not the case. The other factor which we've discussed is that there is a positive NAO. There's really no underlying reason for the the development of the trough or cut-off low the Euro developed in the first place. The pattern doesn't support this. Ballgame over, the Yankees win! WX/PT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 i've seen the euro overamplify SE moving s/w's plenty of times... remember when it busted badly on a 4 day forecast in mid dec 2010? All of the models did. That low eventually helped setup Boxing Day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 no, the euro was on its own and the snow weenies sounded just like they do now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 i've seen the euro overamplify SE moving s/w's plenty of times... remember when it busted badly on a 4 day forecast in mid dec 2010? Agree. But the major player, IMO, is the H5 closed low in Canada. Historically, the euro handles northern energy much better then the GFS but given the euro's erratic behavior over the past few months, it is unknown if that applies here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 Given the dry pattern of late, hard to imagine a storm that drops 1-2 inches of QPF. Granted it's persistence forecasting, but we've been in a progressive pattern where fronts just speed off the coast with little moisture to work with in the last 3-5 months Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 sandy had ensemble support the entire time Def. But I can name a bunch of storms that had almost no ensemble support in this range. One of them being Feb. 2013. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 This thread is filled with lots of modelology and model hugging and not enough analysis of the actual weather pattern. The big ridge in the Pacific is elongated towards the Aleutian Islands. While extremely anomalous and strong -- it is west of where you would like to see it for big time amplification of the pattern down across the CONUS. This is not to say that the storm has zero percent chance of happening, but it doesn't take much to understand why the pattern is progressive. Because this ridge is elongated and farther west, the ridge that comes over the top of the Central US is inherently progressive and ends up too far east. The storm system and associated energy over the Central US that tries to amplify, as a result, has very little time to do so. As long as every model and ensemble member has a good general idea as to what is going on, this pattern is way too fast to support any organized or strengthening storm tucking in near the coast and providing significant precipitation to our area. Simple as that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxoutlooksblog Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 This thread is filled with lots of modelology and model hugging and not enough analysis of the actual weather pattern. The big ridge in the Pacific is elongated towards the Aleutian Islands. While extremely anomalous and strong -- it is west of where you would like to see it for big time amplification of the pattern down across the CONUS. This is not to say that the storm has zero percent chance of happening, but it doesn't take much to understand why the pattern is progressive. Because this ridge is elongated and farther west, the ridge that comes over the top of the Central US is inherently progressive and ends up too far east. The storm system and associated energy over the Central US that tries to amplify, as a result, has very little time to do so. As long as every model and ensemble member has a good general idea as to what is going on, this pattern is way too fast to support any organized or strengthening storm tucking in near the coast and providing significant precipitation to our area. Simple as that. fast.png Extremely well put! WX/PT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Imperator Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 This thread is filled with lots of modelology and model hugging and not enough analysis of the actual weather pattern. The big ridge in the Pacific is elongated towards the Aleutian Islands. While extremely anomalous and strong -- it is west of where you would like to see it for big time amplification of the pattern down across the CONUS. This is not to say that the storm has zero percent chance of happening, but it doesn't take much to understand why the pattern is progressive. Because this ridge is elongated and farther west, the ridge that comes over the top of the Central US is inherently progressive and ends up too far east. The storm system and associated energy over the Central US that tries to amplify, as a result, has very little time to do so. As long as every model and ensemble member has a good general idea as to what is going on, this pattern is way too fast to support any organized or strengthening storm tucking in near the coast and providing significant precipitation to our area. Simple as that. fast.png A+ John. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 John FTW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 So far through hour 126 the 12z GFS ensemble mean is actually slightly more progressive early on than the 12z GFS op and then ends up west of the OP with some sagging back to the southwest. Splitting hairs at this point though. The 12z GGEM is also way east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 This thread is filled with lots of modelology and model hugging and not enough analysis of the actual weather pattern. The big ridge in the Pacific is elongated towards the Aleutian Islands. While extremely anomalous and strong -- it is west of where you would like to see it for big time amplification of the pattern down across the CONUS. This is not to say that the storm has zero percent chance of happening, but it doesn't take much to understand why the pattern is progressive. Because this ridge is elongated and farther west, the ridge that comes over the top of the Central US is inherently progressive and ends up too far east. The storm system and associated energy over the Central US that tries to amplify, as a result, has very little time to do so. As long as every model and ensemble member has a good general idea as to what is going on, this pattern is way too fast to support any organized or strengthening storm tucking in near the coast and providing significant precipitation to our area. Simple as that. fast.png Today's 12z GGEM, UKMET and GFS all show what you are talking about perfectly. I would be surprised if the Euro didn't make a major correction since the entire 12z suite is way OTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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