mappy Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 Exactly. Basically a clipper where the mts would see better results than us. Which is usually how it works out anyways. Flakes flying in mid-November is still nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 Now that looks probable. I don't think Norfolk is getting 3", but the general idea of a weak, progressive solution seems to makes sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 In this situation, its possible the frontal snows occur here, and I do doubt in such a progressive flow the s/w at h5 would go to the SE that much. So all things considered, I suppose the frontal snows are possible in our area... its really just too early to call and a burden to even speculate. That's kind of what I'm thinking. Moisture will ride a boundary. Should be some enhanced lift "somewhere" along it. IF this is how it's going to go down, our only chance is to be on the northern edge with some enhanced lift. The 132 h7 panel shows some nearby. We have a long way to go. Like all events, this one is nailbiter with greater odds of things going wrong than right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 Exactly. Basically a clipper where the mts would see better results than us. I think the Mountains will do pretty well (by our standards) in just about any of these scenarios. Good time to go up to jonjon's or Deep Creek if one's able. In this situation, its possible the frontal snows occur here, and I do doubt in such a progressive flow the s/w at h5 would go to the SE that much. So all things considered, I suppose the frontal snows are possible in our area... its really just too early to call and a burden to even speculate. From the type of scenario the 12z GFS shows (but shifted more over our area, which I think is more probable given the situation), I think conversational snow in many spots with some light accums in colder locations is possible. The model snow maps are always fun, but are even less realistic in November than they are in DJF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 I think the Mountains will do pretty well (by our standards) in just about any of these scenarios. Good time to go up to jonjon's or Deep Creek if one's able. If the storm happens on Wednesday, I may seriously consider that (or Seven Springs) since I am free that day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 call me silly, but I just don't see NC or S-VA getting accumulating snows this time of year if this system does bring snow, it will be further north than GFS depicted at 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 call me silly, but I just don't see NC or S-VA getting accumulating snows this time of year if this system does bring snow, it will be further north than GFS depicted at 12z or no one around here will.. but that might be silly too. a storm getting squashed south and trying to develop leaving a band of higher qpf seems reasonable tho. you know one thing these days--a storm will either hit SE VA or Boston or both while missing us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 Looks like we're getting closer to a solution gfs_6hr_snow_acc_east_27.png Looks a lot like last years snows....ROA and BLK FTW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 Stupidity... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 you know one thing these days--a storm will either hit SE VA or Boston or both while missing us. Stop..... even hinting at anything that reminds me of 12/26/10 makes me nauseous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 Stupidity... why is it stupid? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 why is it stupid? Do you really have to ask that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 or no one around here will.. but that might be silly too. a storm getting squashed south and trying to develop leaving a band of higher qpf seems reasonable tho. you know one thing these days--a storm will either hit SE VA or Boston or both while missing us. well, I did say "this time of year" I think climo rules....what's the record first date of areas getting substantial measurable snow where the GFS depicts? idk, but I'm betting the 12z GFS snow map date is well before those dates Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 Do you really have to ask that? Yes. Otherwise he wouldn't have asked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 Looks a lot like last years snows....ROA and BLK FTW Our HOT streak continues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 Do you really have to ask that? it makes a lot more sense than the euro.. tho the storm could totally whiff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 well, I did say "this time of year" I think climo rules....what's the record first date of areas getting substantial measurable snow where the GFS depicts? idk, but I'm betting the 12z GFS snow map date is well before those dates Most areas near and west of the Blue Ridge Parkway 10-10 (79) RIC is 11-6 (53?) and ORK is 11-29 (81) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 Most areas near and west of the Blue Ridge Parkway 10-10 (79) RIC is 11-6 (53?) and ORK is 11-29 (81) When there is such an anomalous event, I'm not sure the clouds read climo or care about 100 miles either direction. I favor the more northern track, but can see a path for the GFS type event. how did your area fair in 1979? LYH had 2.4 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 12z GGEM has a reasonable solution, IMO, and one that's probably our best chance at something legit. Flatter and faster than last night's Euro, but farther north than the GFS. Vortmax passes just south of us or maybe right over us (hard to tell exactly). Precip falls at night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 12z UKIE looks a bit better than the 12z GFS regarding SLP placement off the east coast -- http://meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_12/GZ_D5_PN_144_0000.gif h5 heights are in the mid 530s, which is decent correct if we want to see snow? Or do h5 heights not matter as much? Cant see the vort (stops at 72) unless others have it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 When there is such an anomalous event, I'm not sure the clouds read climo or care about 100 miles either direction. I favor the more northern track, but can see a path for the GFS type event. how did your area fair in 1979? LYH had 2.4 inches. Varied by elevation, 4-5 inches in Covington itself where I lived, out in counties (Alleghany and Bath) 10-12 fell. I remember well the 'shotgun' sounds as hundreds of trees got snapped/pulled down by the heavy snow. Friend I currently work with was working on the Pumped Storage Project for Vepco at the time he said he was trapped by downed trees trying to get home, watched as a large tree went right through the middle of an abandoned car several in front of him! He said 12-16 inches fell up there that night/morning. Of course, that is near 3000 foot elevation too. I've seen 'reports' of 10 inches for Covington, but I'd say that was for a 'county' area, not city itself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 Still a pretty big spread on the 12z GEFS. A couple look like the Op. A few are really wound up (and not all snow in those scenarios). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 Still a pretty big spread on the 12z GEFS. A couple look like the Op. A few are really wound up (and not all snow in those scenarios). Member P010 FTW lol. Looks like euro last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 Still a pretty big spread on the 12z GEFS. A couple look like the Op. A few are really wound up (and not all snow in those scenarios). The 850 temps on most look pretty warm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 Stupidity... Its not to far off for the likely scenario. Cold air will be coming into the region, low could go up the coast and have strong winds around it and snow in the appalachians. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 Its not to far off for the likely scenario. Cold air will be coming into the region, low could go up the coast and have strong winds around it and snow in the appalachians. Just seems early to be having maps like this out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 Euro is looking interesting... might be better then last nights run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 The 850 temps on most look pretty warm On the wound up members, they do. If the storm goes boom, it really depends on where it rapidly deepens to determine whether the coldest air gets wrapped up over us or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 Just seems early to be having maps like this out. How is any different than other people on here posting snowfall total maps and the such? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 Out to 126 the ridge is perfect on the euro... i think another weenie solution results.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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