Mid November Pretend Snowstorm

[snow.]

Social media is generally unbearable, which is why I foreswore pretty much all of it a couple years ago.  My wife is our "social media (Facebook) manager" and I'll check Tweeter for soccer news and such.  That's about it.

 

The fact that both the Euro and GFS have this storm on the horizon right now is pretty amazing, no matter how it all pans out.  I don't think that anyone except zwyts is expecting 15" of snow, so just seeing a winter weather threat for us on those two within a week out is enough reason to have fun with it.

 

I haven't posted about this storm at all or shared my thoughts anywhere

[H2O]

Doesn't seem like much differences early from 6z to 12z thru 72  

[WeSuck]

Here comes our HP at 96 hr. Coming south

Edit: At 126 hr HP much stronger. 1044 mob compared to 1032

[AmericanWxFreak]

Looks impressive through 129. Energy looking to consolidate off the coast once again

[yoda]

Only a 1045 H at 126 in the Central Plains.. impressive for this time of year

[stormtracker]

Whatever happens, I do think that impressive H pressure is the real deal.

[H2O]

Whatever happens, I do think that impressive H pressure is the real deal.

 

If it is right then cold shouldnt be a problem

[EasternUSWX]

Even more SE this run. Guess that is good for when the north trend starts. lol

[AmericanWxFreak]

Slides to the SE

[DDweatherman]

Doesn't do it this run with too much s/w progression prior to anything consolidating for us. The cold high is there however. 

[snow.]

As Coastal mentioned the pattern is progressive...these early and late season storms can sometimes do funny things, but climo is pretty adverse....

[snow.]

Doesn't do it this run with too much s/w progression prior to anything consolidating for us. The cold high is there however. 

 

 

Probably conversational flurries, --SN

[wxmeddler]

Faster and flatter.

[Bob Chill]

You can see the primary difference on the back side of the trough @ h5 compared to 0z. 0z has a negative tilt on the backside as the energy is digging. Without it the front of the trough doesn't have the amplification to wrap it up and close it off in time. 

 

It can still snow like this though but will be awfully tough to get below freezing at the surface. I brought this up earlier. Won't be heavy rates and dynamics. Just lift along the baroclinic zone. 

[WxUSAF]

Whatever happens, I do think that impressive H pressure is the real deal.

Completely agree.  

[DDweatherman]

Do I see the Euro holding up from last night? Not sure, we have potential biases playing on both ends. Euro tends to hold back h5 energy while GFS apparently overdoes hp centers post 120hrs. 

[H2O]

As Coastal mentioned the pattern is progressive...these early and late season storms can sometimes do funny things, but climo is pretty adverse....

 

yes.  flow is too fast with Atl allowing it to keep going.  

[Kmlwx]

You can see the primary difference on the back side of the trough @ h5 compared to 0z. 0z has a negative tilt on the backside as the energy is digging. Without it the front of the trough doesn't have the amplification to wrap it up and close it off in time.

It can still snow like this though but will be awfully tough to get below freezing at the surface. I brought this up earlier. Won't be heavy rates and dynamics. Just lift along the baroclinic zone.

Will be quite interesting to watch how the models handle this over the next few days. Model drama has returned for the season lol

[DDweatherman]

Bob is right, you're going to need backside energy to dig into this trough if you want more than non sticking conversational snow along the Baro zone. Could it happen? Yes, but its unlikely, especially considering climo and current indices. WIll see what the euro has to say. 

[snow.]

yes.  flow is too fast with Atl allowing it to keep going.  

 

I think climo is probably more important the modeling at this range...(not that models are even very good in mid January from this range)

 

Half the days in November have <1" record snow for the day including 9 traces or less...

[Bob Chill]

Will be quite interesting to watch how the models handle this over the next few days. Model drama has returned for the season lol

 

Big wild card is how the closed h5 low off the nw coast retrogrades. That's a big driver of pumping up the ridge over the rockies. Subtle changes in timing of that evolution has big affects down stream. Looking likely that energy will dive down in the middle of the country and a big fat cold hp on top of it. How much it digs and placement of features won't be known for days. LONG DAYS. lol

[Ian]

Looks like we're getting closer to a solution

 

[H2O]

I think climo is probably more important the modeling at this range...(not that models are even very good in mid January from this range)

 

Half the days in November have <1" record snow for the day including 9 traces or less...

 

Absolutely.  As Ji pointed out on one of his FB posts.  You need an anomalous mass of cold air this time of year to even think about snow.  

[Midlo Snow Maker]

gfs has 12z  on the13th  in the 20's everywhere, single digits in wva  18z only in the 30's

[Ian]

gfs has 12z  on the13th  in the 20's everywhere, single digits in wva  18z only in the 30's

 

[WxUSAF]

I think a solution similar to this is most likely, IMO.  With the fast flow, a relatively weak wave makes sense.  I still think that if something like that occurs, I very much doubt the vortmax goes that far south of us that we're fringed on the north.  

[mappy]

I think a solution similar to this is most likely, IMO.  With the fast flow, a relatively weak wave makes sense.  I still think that if something like that occurs, I very much doubt the vortmax goes that far south of us that we're fringed on the north.  

 

So instead of a southern mover, it would pass us further north, but be chugging along too fast to drop any major accums?

[NoVaWx]

Looks like we're getting closer to a solution

 

gfs_6hr_snow_acc_east_27.png

Now that looks probable.

[H2O]

So instead of a southern mover, it would pass us further north, but be chugging along too fast to drop any major accums?

 

Exactly.  Basically a clipper where the mts would see better results than us.

[DDweatherman]

I think a solution similar to this is most likely, IMO.  With the fast flow, a relatively weak wave makes sense.  I still think that if something like that occurs, I very much doubt the vortmax goes that far south of us that we're fringed on the north.  

In this situation, its possible the frontal snows occur here, and I do doubt in such a progressive flow the s/w at h5 would go to the SE that much. So all things considered, I suppose the frontal snows are possible in our area... its really just too early to call and a burden to even speculate.