Bari Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 WD Index.JPG thanks for making my day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 The high pressure is super critical here for a few reasons... Sets up a sharp baroclinic zone as well. It's seemed overdone but it keeps showing up., I tend to agree about it being overdone. The higher odds of snow falling from the sky is a less amplified solution. Basically being on the n'ern edge of the precip sheild as everything glides along the front. But that won't get surface temps down imo. The deeping low at the base of a pretty narrow and sharp trough is acting like a very efficient cold vacuum at the surface. Big ?'s are of course track and placement IF we want to see a pretty big/wound up synoptic event. I would have to assume we are on the fringe given the time of year. A bump north and we cry in our cold rain. Good thing our emotions will be toyed with endlessly for the time being. Good warmup for met winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 The high pressure is super critical here for a few reasons... Sets up a sharp baroclinic zone as well. It's seemed overdone but it keeps showing up., I tend to agree about it being overdone. The higher odds of snow falling from the sky is a less amplified solution. Basically being on the n'ern edge of the precip sheild as everything glides along the front. But that won't get surface temps down imo. The deeping low at the base of a pretty narrow and sharp trough is acting like a very efficient cold vacuum at the surface. Big ?'s are of course track and placement IF we want to see a pretty big/wound up synoptic event. I would have to assume we are on the fringe given the time of year. A bump north and we cry in our cold rain. Good thing our emotions will be toyed with endlessly for the time being. Good warmup for met winter. I think the presence of a pretty anomalously cold HP is a pretty safe bet right now. But even that would probably only get us to highs in the 40s and lows in the upper 20s under clear skies. We need the storm to get amplified and draw the coldest air down towards us (0z Euro had -10C 850s!!) if we have a chance of snow. As you say, Bob, if there's a very weak wave, like yesterday's 12z Euro and some earlier GFS runs showed, I think it could still snow lightly if it fell at night and the HP gets here 12-24 hours in advance of any clouds/precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 Euro has been showing this storm off and on since like hr 240 a few days ago. Who knows, maybe just maybe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 I think the presence of a pretty anomalously cold HP is a pretty safe bet right now. But even that would probably only get us to highs in the 40s and lows in the upper 20s under clear skies. We need the storm to get amplified and draw the coldest air down towards us (0z Euro had -10C 850s!!) if we have a chance of snow. As you say, Bob, if there's a very weak wave, like yesterday's 12z Euro and some earlier GFS runs showed, I think it could still snow lightly if it fell at night and the HP gets here 12-24 hours in advance of any clouds/precip. Yea, it's definitely a wild setup if you take the runs verbatim. Pretty much a perfect placement close off and ramp up. 6z like stated earlier is a miss south. Heh, a miss south in early November? Possible but not probable. I worry too of an overhead track. That won't do it. With the strong temp gradient and baroclinic zone, there could be plenty of lift for a weaker wave scenario to snow decently but snow and melt all things considered. Pretty nutty wavelength setup from west to east. 0z gfs had a negative tilt on the back side of the trough as h5 closes off. Lotsa dynamics in that setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 well, now i feel dumb; re: WD index Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeSuck Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 Does the 6z GFS obliterate ORF? Haven't checked surface temps yet but that would be the epic lulz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 Twirling your chip's and waiting to place your bet?The euro is good but it messes up enough not to freak out yet. Social media will be unreadable today at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 The euro is good but it messes up enough not to freak out yet. Social media will be unreadable today at least. would be funny if we got 6-10 inches before CWG winter forecasts came out. Or if they use the storm to "adjust" their winter forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 I just "disliked" Jay Hatem Weather on facebook Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 The euro is good but it messes up enough not to freak out yet. Social media will be unreadable today at least. Absolutely Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 The euro is good but it messes up enough not to freak out yet. Social media will be unreadable today at least. and tomorrow, and the next day, and probably for the rest of the fall/winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 The euro is good but it messes up enough not to freak out yet. Social media will be unreadable today at least. The ensembles still are all over the place. I guess TWC put us in snow for later next week on one of their graphics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 this threat actually has more legs than any threat that i can think of last winter except for the sequester storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 Euro has been showing this storm off and on since like hr 240 a few days ago. Who knows, maybe just maybe. Thanks for the update, Mr. B Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 I like the 1031 and 1032 dual highs in Saskatchewan at 84 on the 12z NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 The ensembles still are all over the place. I guess TWC put us in snow for later next week on one of their graphics.Last night they posted a crippling storm could hit Bismarck to DC. Supposedly it was an underling and shouldn't have read like that but who knows. I'm sure the people who talked about it 'first' would be eager to claim that should it happen. A good snow with near peak color would be pretty cool so I'm tempted to root for it IMBY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCAlexandria Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 Ian, do any of us ever root against snow? ;-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted November 7, 2013 Author Share Posted November 7, 2013 WJLA has a 90% chance of snow next Tuesday on their website. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 WJLA has a 90% chance of snow next Tuesday on their website. lol I dont see it -- http://www.wjla.com/weather/maps/featured/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 Ian, do any of us ever root against snow? ;-)By the end of the season I do at least partly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 Last night they posted a crippling storm could hit Bismarck to DC. Supposedly it was an underling and shouldn't have read like that but who knows. I'm sure the people who talked about it 'first' would be eager to claim that should it happen. A good snow with near peak color would be pretty cool so I'm tempted to root for it IMBY. Yes it would, would be very picturesque as well. Even if it melts like a day later or we have a few inches of snow at night and gets wiped away by rain the next day, still would be cool Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted November 7, 2013 Author Share Posted November 7, 2013 I dont see it -- http://www.wjla.com/weather/maps/featured/ I saw it on my phone app. Wed is 50% chance of light rain/snow with a high of 32 in Prince William County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 all I can say at this point is, statistically, we are due for a fluke Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 all I can say at this point is, statistically, we are due for a fluke The Whirrdoo Storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeSuck Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 12z GFS coming in now. Are we really starting this already? Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 12z GFS coming in now. Are we really starting this already? Lol DGEX is now on board http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/mmbpll/dgexops.conus/eta.snow_animate.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 DGEX is now on board http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/mmbpll/dgexops.conus/eta.snow_animate.html Well... DGEX/EURO combo? la-la-lock it up! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 lets try to keep this on topic about the storm and save the worthless stuff for the banter thread thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 The euro is good but it messes up enough not to freak out yet. Social media will be unreadable today at least. Social media is generally unbearable, which is why I foreswore pretty much all of it a couple years ago. My wife is our "social media (Facebook) manager" and I'll check Tweeter for soccer news and such. That's about it. The fact that both the Euro and GFS have this storm on the horizon right now is pretty amazing, no matter how it all pans out. I don't think that anyone except zwyts is expecting 15" of snow, so just seeing a winter weather threat for us on those two within a week out is enough reason to have fun with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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