WxMan1 Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 12Z had some showing the storm when the OP wasn't so hopefully more jump on board now. Yes. 12Z had 4 members with 8+ inches for DCA (4/50). Some were very close though. I agree with you. When you get an "unperturbed" run giving you that much snow...you have to wonder what some of the ensembles are gonna show... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 Wait, what? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 The DT Facebook feed is the highest of comedy starting at 10:00 pm last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 I'm hugging everything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 The waterboi whammer is going to happen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMan1 Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 00Z EC Ensemble data...12 of the 50 members give DCA at least 4 inches, while 7 give at least 8 inches, 3 give 12+ inches. Again, DCA only, as there are a bunch of near misses N-NW-W and even SW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 Well....is it that we enjoy looking at model runs that show wall to wall warmth and dry with no hope of relief or do we get a kick out of these fun runs? I know which one I pick Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 we may as well enjoy this now because it may be until JAN before we go through this again assuming this winter is like most Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 00Z EC Ensemble data...12 of the 50 members give DCA at least 4 inches, while 7 give at least 8 inches, 3 give 12+ inches. Again, DCA only, as there are a bunch of near misses N-NW-W and even SW. At some point I would love for anyone with knowledge to explain in somewhat technical terms the reasons why this storm may happen. I already know a lot of the reasons why it won't: climo, unfavorable set ups, etc. But why the nodels think it could happen is interesting to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 At some point I would love for anyone with knowledge to explain in somewhat technical terms the reasons why this storm may happen. I already know a lot of the reasons why it won't: climo, unfavorable set ups, etc. But why the nodels think it could happen is interesting to me. We have a transient 50/50, little ridge out west. The storm forms on a stalled cold front I believe, I think in response to that deep trough in the Pacific....i'm no met. though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 At some point I would love for anyone with knowledge to explain in somewhat technical terms the reasons why this storm may happen. I already know a lot of the reasons why it won't: climo, unfavorable set ups, etc. But why the nodels think it could happen is interesting to me. Quirky stuff can happen this time of year with short wavelengths and the flow all screwy. In this case you have some ridging out in the Rockies, although it is moving along. At the same time, there is a s/w targeted to dive south rather sharply. What allows this thing to develop is a ridge anomaly that moves across srn Canada and acts like a bootleg block to allow the storm to move slowly up the coast. The problem is that the overall flow is progressive so my enthusiasm would be tempered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 6z gfs should make all of the boring "realistic" people happy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 Quirky stuff can happen this time of year with short wavelengths and the flow all screwy. In this case you have some ridging out in the Rockies, although it is moving along. At the same time, there is a s/w targeted to dive south rather sharply. What allows this thing to develop is a ridge anomaly that moves across srn Canada and acts like a bootleg block to allow the storm to move slowly up the coast. The problem is that the overall flow is progressive so my enthusiasm would be tempered. Thanks, Scott. I looked at the 6z after my post and it kinda showed why the models have the storm. Cut-off well off the WC popping a brief west ridge and allowing that s/w to round just to our south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 Morning wood..... Is what I will need to get from the backyard and put on the fire if the power goes out.... Seriously, where did this come from? Connection to the 'record' Aleutian high, I assume? So if that doesn't prove as strong, does this also go away? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 i think the euro is smoking something, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeSuck Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 Euro is the definition of Sick Nasty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 6z gfs should make all of the boring "realistic" people happy I think the s/w cutting so far south that we miss anything on the NORTH end is one of the least likely scenarios, IMO. Far more likely this s/w goes over us or to the north of us given this pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 I still need to mow my yard one more time. Why bother if 15 inches of Euro snow is on the way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 I think the s/w cutting so far south that we miss anything on the NORTH end is one of the least likely scenarios, IMO. Far more likely this s/w goes over us or to the north of us given this pattern. Agree. Can we save it as "famous last words"? NWS Blacksburg even FB the 6z GFS snow map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 6z gfs should make all of the boring "realistic" people happy unfortunately, boring is realistic most of the time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 unfortunately, boring is realistic most of the time. Unless it's 100+ degree weather (I know 100 degree days get Ian excited). We do that pretty well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 Part of me doesn't want to believe the temps can do it for us low elevation dwellers but that is one impressive hp dropping down into the center of the country and near perfect interaction with the developing low to drag what appears to be an airmass that can produce snow. Looks like DCA will get it's first freeze in the wake of the departing low regardless of whether it snows or not. It's hard to overlook the WD index as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 Part of me doesn't want to believe the temps can do it for us low elevation dwellers but that is one impressive hp dropping down into the center of the country and near perfect interaction with the developing low to drag what appears to be an airmass that can produce snow. Looks like DCA will get it's first freeze in the wake of the departing low regardless of whether it snows or not. It's hard to overlook the WD index as well. I agree WD index is getting up there... lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 What's the WD index? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 What's the WD index? We're due... lol it is a joke. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 What's the WD index? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 So I swore off winter storm forum discussions until Dec. 1. I'm sucked in. I admit it I got problems! So what is the WD index? Weenie Decibel levels? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 Part of me doesn't want to believe the temps can do it for us low elevation dwellers but that is one impressive hp dropping down into the center of the country and near perfect interaction with the developing low to drag what appears to be an airmass that can produce snow. Looks like DCA will get it's first freeze in the wake of the departing low regardless of whether it snows or not. It's hard to overlook the WD index as well. The high pressure is super critical here for a few reasons... Sets up a sharp baroclinic zone as well. It's seemed overdone but it keeps showing up., Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 WD Index.JPG LOL quite the spike. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 The high pressure is super critical here for a few reasons... Sets up a sharp baroclinic zone as well. It's seemed overdone but it keeps showing up., Twirling your chip's and waiting to place your bet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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