Mid November Pretend Snowstorm

[Fozz]

EURO Snowfall.png

lol I'm in the bullseye

[ravensrule]

lol I'm in the bullseye

That is 18-24 snowflakes, don't get so excited.

[WxMan1]

Anxiously awaiting the 00Z EC ensemble member snowfall output.  This is where I'd like to see a trend that would be our friend.  For those keeping score (strictly for DCA, the number of members with at least 1, 4, 6, and 10 inches total cumulative snowfall):

 

                                           At least 1”                  At least 4”                  At least 6”                  At least 10”

 

 

00Z 11/07/13 Run                   21                                12                               7                                3

12Z 11/07/13 Run                   26                                14                               9                                5

00Z 11/08/13 Run                   ??                                 ??                              ??                              ??

[The_Global_Warmer]

Anxiously awaiting the 00Z EC ensemble member snowfall output.  This is where I'd like to see a trend that would be our friend.  For those keeping score (strictly for DCA, the number of members with at least 1, 4, 6, and 10 inches total cumulative snowfall):

 

                                           At least 1”                  At least 4”                  At least 6”                  At least 10”

 

 

00Z 11/07/13 Run                   21                                12                               7                                3

12Z 11/07/13 Run                   26                                14                               9                                5

00Z 11/08/13 Run                   ??                                 ??                              ??                              ??

 

 

Great great data points.  Good stuff.

 

I wish I knew how to create graphic out put so we could make a time series for our major cities from ensemble spread like you did above in numerical form.

[stormtracker]

Anxiously awaiting the 00Z EC ensemble member snowfall output.  This is where I'd like to see a trend that would be our friend.  For those keeping score (strictly for DCA, the number of members with at least 1, 4, 6, and 10 inches total cumulative snowfall):

 

                                           At least 1”                  At least 4”                  At least 6”                  At least 10”

 

 

00Z 11/07/13 Run                   21                                12                               7                                3

12Z 11/07/13 Run                   26                                14                               9                                5

00Z 11/08/13 Run                   ??                                 ??                              ??                              ??

Like the way this is presented.    Now you're stuck doing this for the entire winter.   Congrats.

[Edge Weather]

The Euro has many times proven that it does not need support from other models.  This situation reminds me very much of Sandy and the Boxing Day storm when mets were saying on TV that 11 models had it going out to sea but only one has it coming inland so it isn't going to happen.  Yeah.  Sure it would be nice to have other models showing it, but this is how it works so very often.  The Euro shows it close to the coast and the other models have it WAY out to sea.  Typical actually.

 

Now hear me out.....

 

But honestly...I would like to see the GFS show this as well.   

[North Balti Zen]

Excellent. If you average the GFS and the Euro, we get 9-12. Done and done. Fast forward to Wednesday.

Always amazed when the models are this different 4-5 days out. That's a massive difference between no storm for pretty much anyone and a historic storm for a lot of people.

[Edge Weather]

Remember Sandy?

 

Excellent. If you average the GFS and the Euro, we get 9-12. Done and done. Fast forward to Wednesday. Always amazed when the models are this different 4-5 days out. That's a massive difference between no storm for pretty much anyone and a historic storm for a lot of people.

[H2O]

Remember Sandy?

Totally different reasons for that. Might as well say "remember the Alamo"

[North Balti Zen]

Remember Sandy?

 

Um, yes. I was also amazed at those differences. Am I not allowed to be amazed each time it happens?

[WxMan1]

We now have the 00Z 11/08 EC ensemble member snowfall output.  Below are the number of members with at least 1, 4, 6, and 10 inches total cumulative snowfall (for DCA):

 

                                           At least 1”                  At least 4”                  At least 6”                  At least 10”

 

 

00Z 11/07/13 Run                   21                                12                               7                                3

12Z 11/07/13 Run                   26                                14                               9                                5

00Z 11/08/13 Run                   28                                10                               8                                4

 

The operational ECMWF is an obvious amplified outlier, you realize that when it tracks the sfc low from Danville VA to Columbia SC (i.e. ssw shift).  Given the orientation of the cold air/strong high moving in...and northerly flow to build in across the Gulf Coast states...it would appear we have very little latitudinal real estate to work with.  A much more plausible solution is cyclogenesis holding off until farther off the mid Atlantic coast. 

 

The fact that there are more members for the 1" amounts, while fewer for the higher end amounts tells me that the ensembles are trending a little toward a more progressive pattern with the cold air coming in quickly and cyclogenesis not being able to crank until farther off the mid Atlantic coast. Me thinks a flatter wave per the EC ensemble mean and operational UKMet and CMC would be the best solution to follow at this point if I had to choose. 00Z ECMWF clearly an outlier.. 

[Edge Weather]

Yes, my point was that amazing things can and do sometimes happen and they seem to be happening all the time now.  Look at the typhoon that just hit the Philippines as well.  Lots of crazy stuff going on.  That is all.  

 

 

Um, yes. I was also amazed at those differences. Am I not allowed to be amazed each time it happens?

[mitchnick]

 

thx WxMan1!

growing consensus on Euro ensembles on us seeing snow, and that's nice to see

the more the merrier

[psuhoffman]

Just saw the euro and it looks nothing like the descriptions on here. Seems to show a much more progressive solution then earlier runs. Blasts east of 95 and Delmarva and nj but very little precip west of 95. Either I have bad data or some people can't read maps (cough DT)

[eurojosh]

Do any of the euro ensembles look like the GFS?

[North Balti Zen]

Just saw the euro and it looks nothing like the descriptions on here. Seems to show a much more progressive solution then earlier runs. Blasts east of 95 and Delmarva and nj but very little precip west of 95. Either I have bad data or some people can't read maps (cough DT)

Sorry, haven't seen it at all. Was going by the snow map posted above. If that was wrong, scratch all of my comments. Although DT is indeed woof'ing over something. 

[Heisy]

Just saw the euro and it looks nothing like the descriptions on here. Seems to show a much more progressive solution then earlier runs. Blasts east of 95 and Delmarva and nj but very little precip west of 95. Either I have bad data or some people can't read maps (cough DT)

 

That map above that says "ECMWF" at the top isn't the right snowfall output for the 00z run. Seems like last nights or something made for a news station....

[psuhoffman]

Sorry, haven't seen it at all. Was going by the snow map posted above. If that was wrong, scratch all of my comments. Although DT is indeed woof'ing over something.

He is woofing because it shows snow for him. His description everywhere else is awful.

[North Balti Zen]

He is woofing because it shows snow for him. His description everywhere else is awful.

 

Should have known, thanks.

[WxUSAF]

WxMan1...very helpful info on the Euro ensembles!  Thanks!

 

There's really no reason to put stock in the Euro solution right now.  It has little support, from it's own Ensembles or any other major model, and it's a hard to expect a slow/deep system with this fast progressive flow.  I think if we want snow, we should be hoping for some lift after the frontal passage aided by the vorticity rotating through.  It seems like the cold air is a lock, so I think hoping for moisture is the way to go.  

[isohume]

Sorry, haven't seen it at all. Was going by the snow map posted above. If that was wrong, scratch all of my comments. Although DT is indeed woof'ing over something. 

 

He certainly is. 

[I-83 BLIZZARD]

lol I'm in the bullseye

That is the best place to be 5 days out!

[Bob Chill]

There's really no reason to put stock in the Euro solution right now. It has little support, from it's own Ensembles or any other major model, and it's a hard to expect a slow/deep system with this fast progressive flow.

This is a very good point. When I was looking at the runs yesterday it was obvious that without a very sharp backside to the digging trough there would be no significant storm. The energy diving down is weak and quite dry. The amplified solutions spun it up at the base. That's only plausible when the flow is sharp enough to start the spin. This is quite different than an energetic vort diving down that already has moisture/precip/lift before it hits the base. Seeing the GFS completely abandon the idea of strong vorticity forming at the base because the flow is too flat is a very bad sign regardless of the euro.

I haven't even looked at last nights euro but I have to assume it's handling the closed low retrograding off the west coast differently and showing a sharper/more amplified ridge downstream. Correct me if I'm wrong though.

Until I see the globals agree on the flow buckling hard as the energy drops and not after I have little optimism.

[usedtobe]

 

We now have the 00Z 11/08 EC ensemble member snowfall output.  Below are the number of members with at least 1, 4, 6, and 10 inches total cumulative snowfall (for DCA):

 

                                           At least 1”                  At least 4”                  At least 6”                  At least 10”

 

 

00Z 11/07/13 Run                   21                                12                               7                                3

12Z 11/07/13 Run                   26                                14                               9                                5

00Z 11/08/13 Run                   28                                10                               8                                4

 

The operational ECMWF is an obvious amplified outlier, you realize that when it tracks the sfc low from Danville VA to Columbia SC (i.e. ssw shift).  Given the orientation of the cold air/strong high moving in...and northerly flow to build in across the Gulf Coast states...it would appear we have very little latitudinal real estate to work with.  A much more plausible solution is cyclogenesis holding off until farther off the mid Atlantic coast. 

 

The fact that there are more members for the 1" amounts, while fewer for the higher end amounts tells me that the ensembles are trending a little toward a more progressive pattern with the cold air coming in quickly and cyclogenesis not being able to crank until farther off the mid Atlantic coast. Me thinks a flatter wave per the EC ensemble mean and operational UKMet and CMC would be the best solution to follow at this point if I had to choose. 00Z ECMWF clearly an outlier.. 

 

 

Thanks for the ensemble breakdown.  Are we below freezing with all those 1" members or are some of them snow but above freezing?  I don't see much of a trend either way in terms of the euro ens except there may have been an increase in the number forecasting an inch.  All the other thresholds have changed very little over the past 3 runs, not enough to draw any conclusions from the trends.  It's interesting because the GEFS members seem to have trended flatter while the euro ens mean if anything is a little more amped than yesterday even if it is much flatter and farther east than the op euro. 

[EasternUSWX]

 

[IsentropicLift]

As unlikely as it seems, I don't see how one could completely dismiss the Euro. It's performance record speaks for itself. 24 hours before Sandy the GFS still had it backing into Cape Cod. We will likely need at least a few more model cycles until this is all sorted out.

[eurojosh]

NAM at 84 looks more like the EURO than the GFS...  Less flat, more diggy...

 

#

[Bob Chill]

As unlikely as it seems, I don't see how one could completely dismiss the Euro. It's performance record speaks for itself. 24 hours before Sandy the GFS still had it backing into Cape Cod. We will likely need at least a few more model cycles until this is all sorted out.

 

I'm not dismissing the euro as much as placing the odds in solid favor of a more progressive evolution. Even a compromise between the 2 models doesn't get the job done. 

 

The h5 config on the backside of the trough is worlds apart between the gfs/euro. We have to have a sharp dig and at the very least a neutral tilt on the backside of the trough for anything to close off in time. The euro is on it's own here. If the euro trends towards a more progressive flow over the western half of Canada then the storm will vanish. We'll see what happens @ 12z. My guess is a trend towards the gfs. 

 

 

 

[WxUSAF]

As unlikely as it seems, I don't see how one could completely dismiss the Euro. It's performance record speaks for itself. 24 hours before Sandy the GFS still had it backing into Cape Cod. We will likely need at least a few more model cycles until this is all sorted out.

I'm not sure anyone's dismissing it out of hand, but I think many people realize it's the extreme end member in a range of possibilities.  The GFS is on the other end of that spectrum, but a solution MORE like the GFS makes sense right now.  This isn't Sandy.  

[Bob Chill]

I'm not sure anyone's dismissing it out of hand, but I think many people realize it's the extreme end member in a range of possibilities.  The GFS is on the other end of that spectrum, but a solution MORE like the GFS makes sense right now.  This isn't Sandy.  

 

I would feel a whole lot better if this was some long track vort traversing the country with a range of solutions vs the product of perfect placement of features spawning the storm virtually on our doorstep. That fact alone should throw a heavy blanket of caution on any perfect solution. I suppose it's been long enough since we've had a favorable thread/timing storm. WD index at its best.