usedtobe Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 This storm sucks. Gotta love the GFS and Euro both going towards their sometimes biases in the longer ranges. The GFS nor the euro change anything. This storm probably will suck for 2 or 3 more days with multiple weenie suicides that may be warranted or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 All plays to known biases as well. The Euro Control run was a nice track, better than operational run, but a bit warmer at the 850 level. The GFS/EURO seem to love this pattern. Day 10 EURO sniffs a threat but loses it. Day 7-8 GFS goes bonkers with MECS Day 5-6 EURO starts showing snowstorm while GFS goes OTS Then we find out if its for real. To be expected really. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 Gotta love the GFS and Euro both going towards their sometimes biases in the longer ranges. The GFS nor the euro change anything. This storm probably will suck for 2 or 3 more days with multiple weenie suicides that may be warranted or not. I'm beholden to climo as we all know. I just can't get behind it no matter how much I want to. Also, predictable. I need a "this storm sucks" key next to my "meh" key. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 Rain or Snow is mentioned in the zones Tues Night/Wed night (Fairfax is the one I clicked on) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 Unless things have changed I don't see modeled storms at 5-6 days, and longer being anything you'd want to hang your hat on. At this point I guess you just say "you never know" GFS ens members on PSU don't show much of a storm either, but they did the same thing last year with the Christmas storm and the early march storm if my memory is right (had a big storm, lost it, found it type of thing). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 I'm beholden to climo as we all know. I just can't get behind it no matter how much I want to. Also, predictable. I need a "this storm sucks" key next to my "meh" key. I mean, that's pretty much the safe bet: climo. That's appropriate for any time of the year down here, but ESPECIALLY this early. I'm in the same boat...I want to be excited and it is intriguing, but at the end of the day, when I'm not on here yapping away...you know climo is going to win. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 Don't know about DC, but climo says BWI should get measurable snow in November. Hasn't happened much since I was born, but it's still there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 I'm beholden to climo as we all know. I just can't get behind it no matter how much I want to. Also, predictable. I need a "this storm sucks" key next to my "meh" key. Was that 'TSS" first of the season? Not that we are counting.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 I mean, that's pretty much the safe bet: climo. That's appropriate for any time of the year down here, but ESPECIALLY this early. I'm in the same boat...I want to be excited and it is intriguing, but at the end of the day, when I'm not on here yapping away...you know climo is going to win. We're around here for extremes not climo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 Sheesh, I ignore the boards for a few days and a "snowstorm" thread blows up. I guess by this time any threat of real snow is gone and we are tracking some cold, patchy drizzle and a HECS for New England? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 Don't know about DC, but climo says BWI should get measurable snow in November. Hasn't happened much since I was born, but it's still there. In the current 30 yr norm period it's only a 20%er, at least 0.1"+. Plus I assume there is a heavy weight toward late month. But, we are due. Actually, BWI is not due (2005), but IAD (does Oct count?) and DCA (1996) are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lindsaywx Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 00z gfs sucks!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TerpWeather Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 GFS basically said "LOL, what storm? Oh you mean that one I'll develop 500 miles off your coastline? Oh well, here have some bitter cold instead" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 LOL this is funny. That really Is funny and has some tiny truth in it. I think DC is going to miss some south and east this year. Norfolk may get more. I'm OK with missing on this because big November snowstorms tend to equal mostly lousy DJF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 That really Is funny and has some tiny truth in it. I think DC is going to miss some south and east this year. Norfolk may get more. I'm OK with missing on this because big November snowstorms tend to equal mostly lousy DJF any stats to back this up? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 GFS basically said "LOL, what storm? Oh you mean that one I'll develop 500 miles off your coastline? Oh well, here have some bitter cold instead"Bitter. Maybe vwodka. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 any stats to back this up? I imagine that data set is pretty small. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 any stats to back this up? Just trying to relate in a friendly way that my experience with around DC is that when we get a rare sizable snow in November the follwing winters tend not be so great. Edited-My memory was really 87-88 which had a decent 13.5" after the event so normal. Nov 78 had 3.1" and then the monster 1979 snowstorm. 1967 Nov had 6.9" and 14.5" followed so that's good then 1955 had 2.3 with 9" following and 1955 6.7" with 11.3" following. I am glad you asked it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 Just way to progressive and flat now. Betting the euro finally bails. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 You can look it up if you want to disprove it. Just trying to relate in a friendly way that my experience with around DC is that when we get a rare sizable snow in November the follwing winters tend not be so great. I looked into it further and you raised a good point. For DCA after a 2.0"+ snowfall in Nov going back to 1950 the following winters are mostly at normal snowfall levels, or slightly below, the rest of the way. 87-88 had nice 13" January total after the big Veterans Day 11". Dec and Feb were way low 87-88 but still a nice winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 I think the Euro will hold and at least have a storm (most likely not an I-95 snowstorm though) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 I wouldn't jump ship yet. Still 6 days out, models can lose it and bring it back. I think the likely scenario may be a moderate snow event Hartford providence boston corridor. Impressive cold either way so kind of a win win I hope Matt doesn't see this one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 Pretty strong consensus on a dry front pass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 I think the Euro will hold and at least have a storm (most likely not an I-95 snowstorm though) oh yay *** ALERT *** 0z FRIDAY EURO MODEL GOES BOOM! ** still has Major East coast Low NOV 13-14. HEAVY SNOW INLAND over western half of VA western & central MD much of PA nw NJ se NYC Interior New England https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=601969416516987&set=a.148807335166533.25889.129478830432717&type=1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 oh yay *** ALERT *** 0z FRIDAY EURO MODEL GOES BOOM! ** still has Major East coast Low NOV 13-14. HEAVY SNOW INLAND over western half of VA western & central MD much of PA nw NJ se NYC Interior New England https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=601969416516987&set=a.148807335166533.25889.129478830432717&type=1 2 days ago he was saying there is no chance this will happen, now he is honking like a MECS is coming . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 2 days ago he was saying there is no chance this will happen, now he is honking like a MECS is coming . We all know why Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 Now hear me out..... But honestly...I would like to see the GFS show this as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 Now hear me out..... But honestly...I would like to see the GFS show this as well. This place is hilarious we always dream that the king shows it, when it does we then need the GFS to show it as well to make ourselves feel good. You know with 90% certainty it is not happening even if the Goofus shows it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 We all know why If the Euro told him to come back here, he would listen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Martin Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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