mitchnick Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 1.5ish or a bit more. Mostly around 1.5"+ in the immediate area, up to around 2"+ in the mtns. And 4"+ in SW Va lol. sounds like that heavy 3+ day rain event we had around the 10th of October stupid me, I like where everything sits for us right now edit: well I did before I read HM's post just before me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 Well I guess if you blended the GFS & EURO we'd have a HECS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 Record temps to potentially challenge next week (lo max/min for 12,13,14 Nov): IAD: 41/22, 38/21, 35/13 BWI: 41/18, 32/22, 36/18 DCA: 41/24, 31/22, 35/19 12z GFS MOS has both IAD and BWI with a high of 44F on the 12th. That one might be reachable. Think IAD's record low max for the 13th is also reachable in some conceivable scenarios. The rest are probably unreachable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 While the MJO progression going on, Aleutian High etc. are all notorious factors here, the one thing missing is the NAO. The MJO progression has similarities to 2009, 2002, 2000, 1993, 1990, 1987, 1986, 1985 at the moment and many of these had November systems (near-coastals or coastals). In the case of 1987, the MJO was classic but so was the split stream / el nino pattern. There was also a classic retrograding -NAO anomaly with 50-50 low which forced the northern stream to dig down and phase with the southern stream s/w. In this case, we have a very strong, but quick-hitting, ridge out West that forces PV-deformation between the departing SE Canadian Low and the system that may or may not bring a coastal storm. Between typical D.A. issues and complexity of this flow, I wouldn't count on anything without the NAO. HM, I did a scatter diagram of 8 inch or greater events at DCA since 1950 and only 3 had a positive NAO and all of those had a pna in place. I'd post the figure but want to save it for a CWG piece. That's one of the reasons I still am leery of this being a meaningful snow event for dca. That said, it still could happen even though I rank the probability of meaningful snow as still be pretty low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMan1 Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 we're 6 days out and all the computers show a winter-type storm with huge potential none of the details on any of the computers today will verify and the mountains are always favored, especially so this time of year I'm pretty pleased to be where we are frankly, and so should every other weenie on this board fun few days ahead and I'm all in Exactly. And rather than cling to each successive operational run this far out, we need to first look for some growing consensus among the ensembles. As for me personally, I still tend to have more faith in the EC ensemble member trends than with the GEFS or CMC. I guess that's based on my own subjective verification. Ideally you want to see growing consensus among all the global ensembles as we draw closer to 120 hours out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 I dont think many of us would mind a 1-2" hit of snow then rain... or rain to 1-2" of snow... any snow in November is a bonus... any correlations to the Vet Day Storm in 1987? Edit -- I see HM answered that question above Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 I dont think many of us would mind a 1-2" hit of snow then rain... or rain to 1-2" of snow... any snow in November is a bonus... any correlations to the Vet Day Storm in 1987? They both happened in November. Well, assuming this storm happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 I didn't think on 11/2/13 I'd be anxiously waiting on 11/7/13 for the 12z Euro ensemble run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 I still wonder if wx bell snow maps are a bit wonky. They don't seem to match up with other maps all the. It does look like last yr.. Elevation and SW va ftw. The wording on the bottom of the image make me wonder, specifically the min temp of 32 in a 6 hour period. Makes it seem like they are just multiplying whatever QPF fell by 10 in a period with a temp at or below 32. Not really a great way to do it in a borderline situation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 Mitch is right, the fact that almost all the models agree that there will be a storm is very encouraging, we also have a transient 50/50 which gives us a miraculous shot of cold air. The real question becomes where does the shortwave wrap/close off. I mean there's still a shot is closes off in the perfect spot ala 00z euro...Its 11/7 and were tracking a winter storm, thats all I care about, its half the fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 Hr 180 smashes us all. I-95 north. SN+ This run is insanity. When was the last time upstate South Carolina got that kind of snow in November? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 12z Euro Ensemble Mean, middle of the road situation? Ens on left - OP on right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 I am sure someone else has noted that this may not be a good omen for us. Hopefully this will be one of MANY legitimate threats this season and make the past few winters a dim memory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 12z Euro Ensemble Mean, middle of the road situation? Ens on left - OP on right I think the middle of the road is better for DCA/BWI chances I wonder what the individual members show since a few either extreme can skew the mean Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 I think the middle of the road is better for DCA/BWI chances I wonder what the individual members show since a few either extreme can skew the mean Yeah, we'd need a near perfect thread the needle scenario. Goldilocks solution! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 Yeah, we'd need a near perfect thread the needle scenario. Goldilocks solution! on second look at the mean, it's further off shore than middle of the road it seems but that's still OK 6 days out in my book Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 on second look at the mean, it's further off shore than middle of the road it seems but that's still OK 6 days out in my book In Wes' WaPo Article, he says most of the Euro Ensembles are more progressive Some are nice for us though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 on second look at the mean, it's further off shore than middle of the road it seems but that's still OK 6 days out in my book The euro ens mean is way farther east than we'd want it . There seems to be more spread between it and the operational than there was with the 00Z versions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 In Wes' WaPo Article, he says most of the Euro Ensembles are more progressive Some are nice for us though. That's only from hearing what others say (Brain Hurley and Jim Cisco) and wouldn't hold up in a court of law. The Euro ens mean certainly argues that members most are more progressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 The wording on the bottom of the image make me wonder, specifically the min temp of 32 in a 6 hour period. Makes it seem like they are just multiplying whatever QPF fell by 10 in a period with a temp at or below 32. Not really a great way to do it in a borderline situation. Yeah, comparing it to one of the GFS runs it seemed like the snow line matched up with that. It was giving areas snow with 850s above freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 That's only from hearing what others say (Brain Hurley and Jim Cisco) and wouldn't hold up in a court of law. The Euro ens mean certainly argues that members most are more progressive. To be honest, I think you should have held off until the 18z DGEX came out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 No we need an 18Z NAM extrap. I thought that's what the DGEX is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 I thought that's what the DGEX is. Technically its perturbed using the GFS supercomputer I believe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 DGEX is a miss wide right, LOL. To be honest, I think you should have held off until the 18z DGEX came out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 To be honest, I think you should have held off until the 18z DGEX came out. lol, I probably should have waited until the Sunday or Monday's runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 LOL this is funny. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 Hr 180 smashes us all. I-95 north. SN+ This run is insanity. Been out all day and just catching up on things, but I'd take this right here any day. Absolutely crushes the mountains. Old news, I know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 This storm sucks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 This storm sucks. Gfs looks like it's saying what storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 The GFS/EURO seem to love this pattern. Day 10 EURO sniffs a threat but loses it. Day 7-8 GFS goes bonkers with MECS Day 5-6 EURO starts showing snowstorm while GFS goes OTS Then we find out if its for real. To be expected really. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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