icebreaker5221 Posted November 6, 2013 Share Posted November 6, 2013 Hello meteorological community, I think it's pretty common knowledge that the ensemble mean forecast outperforms the deterministic, on average, during the 7-10 (or 7-14) day range. This appears to be true for both the GFS/GEFS and the ECMWF/ECME, and probably many others. Does anyone know any peer-reviewed papers that demonstrate this to be true? I know I've seen at least one of them before that focuses on 500 mb heights but cannot find it right now. Much appreciated!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted November 15, 2013 Share Posted November 15, 2013 Hopefully this provides some insight. Looked through my collection of digital publications and found nothing.http://eyewall.met.psu.edu/ensembles/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 Hello meteorological community, I think it's pretty common knowledge that the ensemble mean forecast outperforms the deterministic, on average, during the 7-10 (or 7-14) day range. This appears to be true for both the GFS/GEFS and the ECMWF/ECME, and probably many others. Does anyone know any peer-reviewed papers that demonstrate this to be true? I know I've seen at least one of them before that focuses on 500 mb heights but cannot find it right now. Much appreciated!!! This one may help - http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/yzhu/gif/pub/AAS200512_Zhu.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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