Possible Record November Blocking Event Near Aleutians

[klw]

18z GFS has +4.2 SDs. Impressive

 

Bump as we approach the verification point.

 

http://weather.gc.ca/data/analysis/sai_100.gif

[Chinook]

Seems that it was 480 or more meters above normal at 180W, Aleutians, or nearly 5820 meters. The current pattern shows the idea of negative PNA (positive height anomalies in the Aleutians) and positive PNA (ridge West, trough East.) Weird.

[bluewave]

There is a +550 meter anomaly today with a new November moisture record over Bethel.

 

 

 

Update from Alaska Weather Blog:

 

http://ak-wx.blogspot.com/

 

This morning's 3 am balloon sounding from Bethel measured an atmospheric profile with higher precipitable water (total column moisture) than ever observed before in November (1.10" vs 0.98" in 1991 and 1970).  Remarkably, today's precipitable water measurement also matches the record for October (1.10" in 1970).  The chart below shows the lower atmosphere profile: note the extremely warm saturated layer up to 6000 feet and freezing level above 10000 feet.

 

 

 

 

 

[tacoman25]

This event was the impetus for the very cold weather we've seen over much of the U.S. recently.

 

And now models are indicating another major Aleutian/Alaskan blocking event developing for early December.

[tacoman25]

[N. OF PIKE]

This event was the impetus for the very cold weather we've seen over much of the U.S. recently.

And now models are indicating another major Aleutian/Alaskan blocking event developing for early December.

With wave lengths a bit different, i wonder how that will effect the conus. (Assuming similiar aleutian blocking takes place)

[tacoman25]

With wave lengths a bit different, i wonder how that will effect the conus. (Assuming similiar aleutian blocking takes place)

 

Eh, we're just talking 2-3 weeks later. It looks like it would affect the western U.S. a little more at least at first with this block, and then we'll see how the pattern evolves from there. Either way, it's a second very impressive -EPO episode this cold season, and would just about guarantee another impressive shot of cold air to the CONUS.