Geos Posted November 4, 2013 Share Posted November 4, 2013 GFS is showing the track of the low across WI. Storms/convection look to fire in about the same places as the last storm produced. Then there is a small band of snow showing up on the 18z run in WI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 4, 2013 Author Share Posted November 4, 2013 On the edge of our subforum. Winter Storm Watch issued by MPX. URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN740 PM CST SUN NOV 3 2013...FIRST WINTER STORM OF THE SEASON POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY ANDTUESDAY NIGHT....A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK NORTHEAST ALONG A TIGHTTEMPERATURE GRADIENT FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO WISCONSINBY TUESDAY NIGHT. WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION WILLDEVELOP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY LATE TUESDAY...AIDED BY MOISTURE FROMTROPICAL STORM SONIA IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC. TEMPERATURES WILLCOOL TUESDAY EVENING AND ALLOW RAIN TO TRANSITION TO SNOW. IT ISPOSSIBLE MANY AREAS ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN MINNESOTA ANDWESTERN WISCONSIN COULD SEE 4 TO 7 INCHES OF SNOW. THESE AMOUNTSARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE BASED ON THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM AND HOWTEMPERATURES FALL TUESDAY EVENING. A WINTER STORM WATCH HAS BEENISSUED EAST OF A LINE FROM REDWOOD FALLS TO CLEARWATER ANDMORA...EXCEPT FOR EAU CLAIRE...PEPIN...AND FREEBORN COUNTIES.MNZ045-051>053-058>063-065>070-073>078-082>085-091-092-WIZ014>016-023>025-027-040945-/O.NEW.KMPX.WS.A.0012.131105T2200Z-131106T1200Z/KANABEC-SHERBURNE-ISANTI-CHISAGO-MEEKER-WRIGHT-HENNEPIN-ANOKA-RAMSEY-WASHINGTON-RENVILLE-MCLEOD-SIBLEY-CARVER-SCOTT-DAKOTA-REDWOOD-BROWN-NICOLLET-LE SUEUR-RICE-GOODHUE-WATONWAN-BLUE EARTH-WASECA-STEELE-MARTIN-FARIBAULT-POLK-BARRON-RUSK-ST. CROIX-PIERCE-DUNN-CHIPPEWA-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MORA...ELK RIVER...CAMBRIDGE...CENTER CITY...LITCHFIELD...MONTICELLO...MINNEAPOLIS...BLAINE...ST. PAUL...STILLWATER...OLIVIA...HUTCHINSON...GAYLORD...CHASKA...SHAKOPEE...BURNSVILLE...REDWOOD FALLS...NEW ULM...ST. PETER...LE SUEUR...FARIBAULT...RED WING...ST. JAMES...MANKATO...WASECA...OWATONNA...FAIRMONT...BLUE EARTH...AMERY...BALSAM LAKE...RICE LAKE...BARRON...LADYSMITH...HUDSON...NEW RICHMOND...RIVER FALLS...PRESCOTT...MENOMONIE...BOYCEVILLE...CHIPPEWA FALLS...BLOOMER740 PM CST SUN NOV 3 2013...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGHLATE TUESDAY NIGHT...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN HAS ISSUEDA WINTER STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOONTHROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.* SNOW ACCUMULATION: 4 TO 7 INCHES...WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.* TIMING: RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH A TRANSITION TO SNOW OCCURRING LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING. THE SNOW WILL TAPER OFF LATE TUESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.* IMPACTS: THE FIRST HEAVY SNOW OF THE SEASON IS POSSIBLE NEAR THE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY MORNING COMMUTES. IN ADDITION...IT IS LIKELY TO BE A WET SNOW AND ANY TREES WITH LEAVES LEFT ON THEM MAY BE STRESSED...LEADING TO BROKEN TREE LIMBS AND ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANTSNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL.CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.&&$$BORGHOFF Maybe DLL can squeeze out some flakes from this system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted November 4, 2013 Share Posted November 4, 2013 On the edge of our subforum. Winter Storm Watch issued by MPX. Maybe DLL can squeeze out some flakes from this system. Impressive, thought they might wait another shift or two, though agreement is there for C Minnesota and NW Wisconsin compared to other areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 4, 2013 Author Share Posted November 4, 2013 Impressive, thought they might wait another shift or two, though agreement is there for C Minnesota and NW Wisconsin compared to other areas. I figured there could be a headline tomorrow, but not tonight. NAM dumps it on more, but that's that model for ya. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted November 4, 2013 Share Posted November 4, 2013 I figured there could be a headline tomorrow, but not tonight. NAM dumps it on more, but that's that model for ya. The GEM shows a very similar solution in terms of the stripe of snow, but the GFS came in weaker, and with an even thinner stripe of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted November 4, 2013 Share Posted November 4, 2013 Some strong returns just to my northwest over MN... Must be some ice in the clouds? Nothing happening here other then some wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted November 4, 2013 Share Posted November 4, 2013 Some strong returns just to my northwest over MN... Must be some ice in the clouds? Nothing happening here other then some wind. Looking at the ARX radar on dual-pol it looks like the melting layer is around 3000ft give or take. The bright banded returns are anywhere from 3500-5000ft, so I'm guessing those are some large wet flakes aloft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 4, 2013 Author Share Posted November 4, 2013 NAM staying consistent with amounts. Total moisture this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 4, 2013 Author Share Posted November 4, 2013 12z GFS ended up pushing the snow band closer to LSE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxman1952 Posted November 5, 2013 Share Posted November 5, 2013 Its a long ways from me here in lower Michigan, but I know it won't be long and I'll get in on some of that. Good luck all those in thre track. Mike Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted November 5, 2013 Share Posted November 5, 2013 WWA's: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 5, 2013 Author Share Posted November 5, 2013 NAM trimmed amounts a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted November 5, 2013 Share Posted November 5, 2013 Gfs looks to skimp as well. 850 line definitely more NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 5, 2013 Author Share Posted November 5, 2013 Total rainfall for the system -RPM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 6, 2013 Author Share Posted November 6, 2013 23z RAP pretty generous on the rainfall around here. More so than the NAM & GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted November 6, 2013 Share Posted November 6, 2013 There are a couple 8+ inch snow reports out of sw Minnesota. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 6, 2013 Author Share Posted November 6, 2013 MSP is reporting snow. Starting to snow to the east into WI as well. 0.01" of rain so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted November 6, 2013 Share Posted November 6, 2013 Looks like Minneapolis didn't get much as the temp remained above freezing and the storm used up its snow from Nebraska into sw Minnesota. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 6, 2013 Author Share Posted November 6, 2013 Cold front pushing it's way into the Chicago and Milwaukee metros before too long. ...actually through Milwaukee and RAC already. Decent system with rain amounts, not quite as much as the Halloween storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxman1952 Posted November 6, 2013 Share Posted November 6, 2013 I seen a report that at Watton, Mi in the wstern U.P. they reported 4.8" of snow this morning. I'd expect most later melted as the temps were up there and the ground still warm. Still, nice early amount. Mike Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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