Winter 2013-14 medium range discussion

[bluewave]

What a contrast to just two years ago. Really impressive to set an all time record monthly 

high and low temperature record  just two years apart in Flint.

 

 

RECORD EVENT REPORT

 

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
845 AM EST MON MAR 03 2014

...RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE SET AT FLINT MI...

A RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE OF -16 DEGREES WAS SET AT FLINT MI TODAY.
THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF -11 SET IN 2003. THIS ALSO SMASHES
THE ALL TIME MONTHLY RECORD LOW BREAKING THE OLD RECORD OF -12
DEGREES SET IN 1978.

 

RECORD EVENT REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO IL
740 AM CST MON MAR 03 2014

...RECORD DAILY LOW TEMPERATURE SET AT ROCKFORD IL...

THE LOW TEMPERATURE AT ROCKFORD FOR THIS MORNING...MONDAY MARCH
3RD...WAS -11 DEGREES AT 551 AM CST. THE PREVIOUS RECORD DAILY LOW
TEMPERATURE FOR ROCKFORD FOR MARCH 3RD WAS -4 DEGREES SET IN 2002.

THE LOW TEMPERATURE OF -11 DEGREES ALSO TIES FOR THE LOWEST
TEMPERATURE RECORDED IN THE MONTH OF MARCH. THE OTHER DATE THIS
OCCURRED WAS ON MARCH 1ST 1962.

RECORDS IN ROCKFORD DATE BACK TO 1905.

 

 

 

All-Time Highs for March Broken

 

 

Flint 86 degrees on 3/21/2012

[donsutherland1]

This is a nice thread that can throws in tidbits for several different regions into one don!

 

It has been agreed about by meteorologists that the winter of 2013-14 is the most severe winter in Detroit since 1880-81 for a combination of cold and snow. http://www.freep.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=2014303010014

 

Winter finished the 8th coldest on record (DJF temp 20.9F), and Satuday nights 4.6" brings the season snowfall to 83.8", easily 2nd place and creeping in on the 1880-81 record of 93.6". (It was the snowiest MET winter on record by 14.4", but thats a stat of much lesser importance imo, should always count season snowfall). Snowfall is 49.3" above normal as of March 3rd, and we have been buried under a snowpack this winter that blows away all other years on record. I only hope payment isnt TOO bad in coming years

Thanks Josh. It has been a fantastic winter in the Great Lakes area, among others. Detroit's mean winter temperature of 20.9° was the coldest winter average since 1977-78 and 8th coldest all-time. Flint had its coldest winter since 1978-79 and 5th coldest all-time.

[donsutherland1]

Current tally of subzero low temperatures for select cities (through 3/3):

 

Chicago: 23 (3rd highest all-time)

Detroit: 13 (tied 7th highest all-time)

Duluth: 69 (3rd highest all-time)

Green Bay: 51 (highest all-time; old record: 48, 1976-77)

Minneapolis-St. Paul: 50 (5th highest all-time)

[Jonger]

Detroit would have had one more had the UHI effect not squashed it..  Feb 28th the record low was -1F in Detroit, the outside areas got down to as low as -17F while the city was stuck at 0F.

 

Oh well, what a winter.

 

Tonight the record low in Detroit is quite warm, 5F..... With the forecast, it should easily be broken tonight.

[donsutherland1]

Some seasonal snowfall figures.

 

 

NOTE: Philadelphia's total includes today's snowfall.

[ORH_wxman]

 

What a contrast to just two years ago. Really impressive to set an all time record monthly 

high and low temperature record  just two years apart in Flint.

 

 

RECORD EVENT REPORT

 

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI

845 AM EST MON MAR 03 2014

...RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE SET AT FLINT MI...

A RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE OF -16 DEGREES WAS SET AT FLINT MI TODAY.

THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF -11 SET IN 2003. THIS ALSO SMASHES

THE ALL TIME MONTHLY RECORD LOW BREAKING THE OLD RECORD OF -12

DEGREES SET IN 1978.

 

RECORD EVENT REPORT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO IL

740 AM CST MON MAR 03 2014

...RECORD DAILY LOW TEMPERATURE SET AT ROCKFORD IL...

THE LOW TEMPERATURE AT ROCKFORD FOR THIS MORNING...MONDAY MARCH

3RD...WAS -11 DEGREES AT 551 AM CST. THE PREVIOUS RECORD DAILY LOW

TEMPERATURE FOR ROCKFORD FOR MARCH 3RD WAS -4 DEGREES SET IN 2002.

THE LOW TEMPERATURE OF -11 DEGREES ALSO TIES FOR THE LOWEST

TEMPERATURE RECORDED IN THE MONTH OF MARCH. THE OTHER DATE THIS

OCCURRED WAS ON MARCH 1ST 1962.

RECORDS IN ROCKFORD DATE BACK TO 1905.

 

 

 

All-Time Highs for March Broken

 

 

Flint 86 degrees on 3/21/2012

 

 

 

 

All time monthly record low maximum temperatures were broken over the weekend in the Dakotas...here's a few of the high temps on Saturday which set monthly records:

 

 

Fargo, ND:

 

2014: -8F (old record of -7F in 1948)

 

 

Grand Forks, ND:

 

2014: -11F (old record of -6F in 1974)

 

 

U. ND NWS site:

 

 

2014: -9F (old record -8F in 1955)

[AgeeWx]

Continuing the discussion regarding the UND/NWS Climate Site, the period from December 1, 2013 to February 28, 2014 saw 71 days where the low fell to zero degrees or below, which is 24 days more than the norm of 47 for the December - February period from 1980-2013.

 

Another thing to note regarding our winter so far is although it was rather snowy, we finished with 44.1" of snow for the December-February period this winter, making this the 4th snowiest winter, we are nowhere near the record of 57.7" that fell from December 1996 to February 1997, preempting the catastrophic flooding that affected the RRV in the spring.

 

More info can be located here: http://www.crh.noaa.gov/news/display_cmsstory.php?wfo=fgf&storyid=100931&source=0

[donsutherland1]

As of 11 pm, a number of cities had broken record low temperatures in the Mid-Atlantic region. Others were close. There is a chance that some could set monthly record low temperatures tomorrow morning. Some highlights:

 

Low temperature as of 11 pm:

Atlantic City: 6° (daily record: 5°, 2009)

Baltimore: 7° (old daily record: 10°, 2009)

Sterling, VA: 3° (old daily record: 12°, 2009)

 

Baltimore's single-digit reading is its 11th of winter 2013-14. That's the most there since winter 1980-81 when there were 12 single digit readings.

[donsutherland1]

Yesterday's 2° low in Atlantic City set a new March record low. Previously, the coldest temperature had been 3° on 3/4/2009. Baltimore's 5° low tied the monthly mark, which was set on 3/4/1873.

[WhiteoutWX]

Yesterday's 2° low in Atlantic City set a new March record low. Previously, the coldest temperature had been 3° on 3/4/2009. Baltimore's 5° low tied the monthly mark, which was set on 3/4/1873.

Baltimore down to 4

[donsutherland1]

Baltimore down to 4

Sterling (IAD) also recorded a -1° low temperature. That tied that city's March low, which was set on March 15, 1993.

[Srain]

RECORD EVENT REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
915 AM CST TUE MAR 4 2014

...RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE SET AT COLLEGE STATION YESTERDAY...

THE HIGH TEMPERATURE AT COLLEGE STATION YESTERDAY WAS ONLY
32 DEGREES. THIS BREAKS THE RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE
OF 39 DEGREES FOR MARCH 3RD...SET IN 1943.

 

RECORD EVENT REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
240 AM CST WED MAR 05 2014

...RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES SET AT BOTH HOUSTON BUSH
INTERCONTINENTAL AIRPORT AND HOUSTON HOBBY AIRPORT YESTERDAY...

THE HIGH TEMPERATURE AT HOUSTON BUSH INTERCONTINENTAL AIRPORT
YESTERDAY WAS ONLY 38 DEGREES. THIS BREAKS THE RECORD LOW MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURE OF 48 DEGREES FOR MARCH 4TH...SET IN 1917.

THE HIGH TEMPERATURE AT HOUSTON HOBBY AIRPORT YESTERDAY WAS ONLY 39
DEGREES. THIS BREAKS THE RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE OF 48
DEGREES FOR MARCH 4TH...SET IN 1954.


 

[vortmax]

<sub>RECORD EVENT REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
713 AM EST THU MAR 06 2014

...RECORD DAILY LOW TEMPERATURE SET AT ROCHESTER NY...
...ALL TIME RECORD MARCH LOW TEMPERATURE SET AT ROCHESTER NY...

THE LOW TEMPERATURE AT THE ROCHESTER AIRPORT FELL TO -9 THIS
MORNING...SHATTERING THE OLD DAILY RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE FOR THE
DAY OF -3 SET IN 1948.

THIS IS ALSO THE COLDEST LOW TEMPERATURE EVER RECORDED IN THE MONTH
OF MARCH...BREAKING THE OLD RECORD OF -7 SET IN 1999...1885...AND
1872.</sub>

[Matthew-Northern Italy]

What a contrast: in Italy the 2013-2014 winter has been the 2nd mildest one since 1800, but locally even the 1st (like here).

The 1st (or 2nd) mildest winter was 2006-2007.

[donsutherland1]

After the ongoing snowstorm that is moving eastward from the Great Lakes Region, parts of northern New England, including Burlington will see seasonal snowfall move from below normal to above normal.

 

With the 3.6" snowfall in Chicago, Chicago's seasonal snowfall has now risen to 79.1". That is the 3rd highest on record. Other notable snowfall totals include:

 

Columbus: 53.9" (5th highest)

Detroit: 84.1" (2nd highest)

Indianapolis: 54.7" (3rd highest)

Philadelphia: 62.9" (2nd highest)

 

In terms of subzero readings, notable figures include:

 

Chicago: 23 (4th highest)

Duluth: 71 days (2nd highest)

Green Bay: 54 (highest on record; old record: 48, 1976-77)

Minneapolis-St. Paul: 50 (5th highest)

[donsutherland1]

Don, have been checking this thread daily hoping perhaps you might issue some further prognostications on what spring holds in store, specifically for the southern lakes as we move into late March and April.  

My thinking is that aside from some short-duration milder periods, the next few weeks leading into April will likely be colder than normal on average. I don't believe Chicago or Rockford have seen their last accumulating snow.

[iceman56]

 

Philadelphia: 62.9" (2nd highest)

 

Don,

I believe Philly is still at 3rd highest.

2009-10    78.7"

1995-96    65.5"

[donsutherland1]

 

 

Philadelphia: 62.9" (2nd highest)

 

Don,

I believe Philly is still at 3rd highest.

2009-10    78.7"

1995-96    65.5"

 

You're correct. I misread my own handwriting as 62.5" when the figure was 65.5".

[donsutherland1]

With 6.6" snow, Detroit has now reached 90.7" seasonal snowfall. Only winter 1880-81 with 93.6" had more.

[Harry]

With 6.6" snow, Detroit has now reached 90.7" seasonal snowfall. Only winter 1880-81 with 93.6" had more.

 

 

1.1 away from breaking that record here which was set just back in 08-09.. Also nearing some other notable records for snow cover/snow cover streak in these parts. Has been a inch or more on the ground here since December the 8th.. Has been a foot or more since early January.. Tonight looks to add to the below 0 tally once again and perhaps break not only the daily record of 5 but also the coldest temp for so late in the year which is currently -3. Really has been a winter for the ages in these parts. If Detroit can top the 100" mark it will mark the first time in recorded history that every place from lake Michigan east along i-94 to Detroit has eclipsed the 100" mark.

[OSUmetstud]

After 13.8" from this latest storm, BUF has broke into the top 10 with 120.6".  

[donsutherland1]

With a temperature of 3° this morning, Detroit set a new record low temperature for March 13. The old record was 5°, which was set in 1896.

[JC-CT]

With a temperature of 3° this morning, Detroit set a new record low temperature for March 13. The old record was 5°, which was set in 1896.

Wow, just a brutal winter there for the non-enthusiests. Continued thanks for the info Don.

[michsnowfreak]

Wow, just a brutal winter there for the non-enthusiests. Continued thanks for the info Don.

Its been such a brutal winter from start to finish that MOST of the old folks say theyve never seen a winter like it (the same folks who always belittle snowy winters by recalling how they walked to school uphill in 6 feet of snow lol). Most winters have a defining moment..this one has just been non-stop cold, snow, and deep snowpack from start to finish. The snowfall and temperatures are what makes all the news, but for me personally one of the most interesting stats is snowpack. Though we lost most of the snowpack the  last few days of warmth/wind/sun (true March snow-eaters), we are at 92 days of 1"+ snowdepth. Average for an entire winter is 47 days of 1"+ snowdepth....this winter has had 52 days of 10"+ snowdepth!

[Quakertown needs snow]

another hit

[donsutherland1]

The guidance supports the possible intrusion of yet another Arctic airmass during the March 24-25 timeframe. Some of the coldest anomalies appear likely across the upper Midwest, which experienced its 6th coldest winter on record. The GFS ensembles suggest the potential for an air mass 2-3 standard deviations below normal to move across the Great Lakes region and then eastward. That would suggest that Chicago and possibly Detroit could experience at least another single-digit low temperature with parts of the northern Mid-Atlantic and southern New England regions seeing a day with a high temperature perhaps not far from freezing.

 

Below are the GFS ensembles for 3/25 oz and 3/26 0z, along with high/low temperatures for select standardized anomalies:

 

 

Finally, as an interesting tidbit, much as the 1899 analogy worked out with a big mid-February snowstorm following the late January Deep South snow and ice storm, both the March 1891 and 1942 cases for big Washington, DC snowfalls saw another storm impact parts of the East approximately 1-2 weeks later. Interior sections saw the largest amounts of snow. Those cases would suggest that one should watch the March 22-30 timeframe for a possible large storm. It should be noted that the March 1891 and March 1942 snowstorms were not the drivers of the subsequent events, but that they were the product of an evolving stormy pattern that presented another opportunity before more sustained warmth finally overtook the East. Given the still unfolding pattern and presence of anomalously cold air on our side of the Northern Hemisphere, I believe that it is more likely than not that Detroit will receive the 3.0" snow it needs to exceed its record snowfall amount before winter comes to a close.

[michsnowfreak]

The guidance supports the possible intrusion of yet another Arctic airmass during the March 24-25 timeframe. Some of the coldest anomalies appear likely across the upper Midwest, which experienced its 6th coldest winter on record. The GFS ensembles suggest the potential for an air mass 2-3 standard deviations below normal to move across the Great Lakes region and then eastward. That would suggest that Chicago and possibly Detroit could experience at least another single-digit low temperature with parts of the northern Mid-Atlantic and southern New England regions seeing a day with a high temperature perhaps not far from freezing.

 

Below are the GFS ensembles for 3/25 oz and 3/26 0z, along with high/low temperatures for select standardized anomalies:

 

 

Finally, as an interesting tidbit, much as the 1899 analogy worked out with a big mid-February snowstorm following the late January Deep South snow and ice storm, both the March 1891 and 1942 cases for big Washington, DC snowfalls saw another storm impact parts of the East approximately 1-2 weeks later. Interior sections saw the largest amounts of snow. Those cases would suggest that one should watch the March 22-30 timeframe for a possible large storm. It should be noted that the March 1891 and March 1942 snowstorms were not the drivers of the subsequent events, but that they were the product of an evolving stormy pattern that presented another opportunity before more sustained warmth finally overtook the East. Given the still unfolding pattern and presence of anomalously cold air on our side of the Northern Hemisphere, I believe that it is more likely than not that Detroit will receive the 3.0" snow it needs to exceed its record snowfall amount before winter comes to a close.

A few more stats on Detroits winter for you...since you are interested and have a lot to keep track of lol. Records since 1874 unless otherwise noted. In the Lakes forum there are very detailed threads ongoing pertaining to the record winter in Detroit, Chicago, and Indianapolis/Indiana

 

Season snowfall:

1.) 93.6" - 1880-81

2.) 90.7" - 2013-14 thru 3/17

3.) 78.0" - 1925-26

 

Snowiest MET winters:

1.) 78.0" - 2013-14

2.) 63.6" - 1907-08

 

Most days with high temperature AOB 32F

1.) 86 days - 1880-81

2.) 85 days - 1903-04

3.) 78 days - 1977-78

3.) 78 days - 2013-14 thru 3/17

5.) 76 days - 1911-12

 

While 13 below zero days "only" ranks 7th (tie)...the days AT or below 0F ranks 4th

1.) 25 days - 1884-85

2.) 23 days - 1874-75

3.) 19 days - 1976-77

4.) 17 days - 1983-84

4.) 17 days - 2013-14 thru 3/17

 

Most days in a winter with 1.0"+ snowfall

1.) 25 days - 1929-30

2.) 24 days - 2013-14 thru 3/17

3.) 22 days - 1880-81

 

Most days in a winter with 3.0"+ snowfall

1.) 11 days - 2013-14 thru 3/17

2.) 9 days - 2007-08

2.) 9 days - 2010-11

4.) 8 days - numerous

 

Most days in a winter with 6.0"+ snowfall

1.) 5 days - 2013-14 thru 3/17

2.) 4 days - 1880-81

2.) 4 days - 1899-00

4.) 3 days - numerous

 

The below stats...I do not have the full snowcover stats from 1885-1905

 

Winters with most 1"+ snowcover days - since 1906

1.) 93 days - 2013-14 thru 3/17

2.) 91 days - 1977-78

3.) 89 days - 1947-48

3.) 89 days - 1981-82

 

Winters with most 3"+ snowcover days - since 1906

1.) 78 days - 2013-14 thru 3/17

2.) 74 days - 1977-78

3.) 69 days - 2010-11

 

Winters with most 6"+ snowcover days - since 1906

1.) 72 days - 2013-14 thru 3/17

2.) 42 days - 1977-78

3.) 38 days - 1981-82

 

Winters with most 10"+ snowcover days - since 1906

1.) 52 days - 2013-14 thru 3/17

2.) 18 days - 1998-99

3.) 15 days - 1907-08

3.) 15 days - 1981-82

3.) 15 days - 2008-09

 

Most CONSECUTIVE days of T"+ snowcover - since 1885

1.) 119 days (Nov 25, 1903 - Mar 22, 1904)

2.) 109 days (Dec 6, 1977 - Mar 25, 1978)

3.) 101 days (Nov 30, 1919 - Mar 9, 1920)

3.) 101 days (Dec 6, 1962 - Mar 16, 1963)

5.) 99 days (Dec 9, 2013 - present) thru 3/17

 

Most CONSECUTIVE days of 1"+ snowcover - since 1885

1.) 81 days (Dec 12, 1903 - Mar 1, 1904)

2.) 77 days (Dec 31, 2013 - Mar 17, 2014) thru 3/17

3.) 74 days (Jan 1, 1978 - Mar 15, 1978)

4.) 73 days (Dec 11, 1944 - Feb 21, 1945)

[AgeeWx]

So with this most recent SSW event and the apparent return of easterlies in the upper atmosphere, does anyone else think that sustained warm temperatures for the Midwest and East Coast could arrive sooner rather than later?

[donsutherland1]

A few more stats on Detroits winter for you...since you are interested and have a lot to keep track of lol. Records since 1874 unless otherwise noted. In the Lakes forum there are very detailed threads ongoing pertaining to the record winter in Detroit, Chicago, and Indianapolis/Indiana

 

Season snowfall:

1.) 93.6" - 1880-81

2.) 90.7" - 2013-14 thru 3/17

3.) 78.0" - 1925-26

 

Snowiest MET winters:

1.) 78.0" - 2013-14

2.) 63.6" - 1907-08

 

Most days with high temperature AOB 32F

1.) 86 days - 1880-81

2.) 85 days - 1903-04

3.) 78 days - 1977-78

3.) 78 days - 2013-14 thru 3/17

5.) 76 days - 1911-12

 

While 13 below zero days "only" ranks 7th (tie)...the days AT or below 0F ranks 4th

1.) 25 days - 1884-85

2.) 23 days - 1874-75

3.) 19 days - 1976-77

4.) 17 days - 1983-84

4.) 17 days - 2013-14 thru 3/17

 

Most days in a winter with 1.0"+ snowfall

1.) 25 days - 1929-30

2.) 24 days - 2013-14 thru 3/17

3.) 22 days - 1880-81

 

Most days in a winter with 3.0"+ snowfall

1.) 11 days - 2013-14 thru 3/17

2.) 9 days - 2007-08

2.) 9 days - 2010-11

4.) 8 days - numerous

 

Most days in a winter with 6.0"+ snowfall

1.) 5 days - 2013-14 thru 3/17

2.) 4 days - 1880-81

2.) 4 days - 1899-00

4.) 3 days - numerous

 

The below stats...I do not have the full snowcover stats from 1885-1905

 

Winters with most 1"+ snowcover days - since 1906

1.) 93 days - 2013-14 thru 3/17

2.) 91 days - 1977-78

3.) 89 days - 1947-48

3.) 89 days - 1981-82

 

Winters with most 3"+ snowcover days - since 1906

1.) 78 days - 2013-14 thru 3/17

2.) 74 days - 1977-78

3.) 69 days - 2010-11

 

Winters with most 6"+ snowcover days - since 1906

1.) 72 days - 2013-14 thru 3/17

2.) 42 days - 1977-78

3.) 38 days - 1981-82

 

Winters with most 10"+ snowcover days - since 1906

1.) 52 days - 2013-14 thru 3/17

2.) 18 days - 1998-99

3.) 15 days - 1907-08

3.) 15 days - 1981-82

3.) 15 days - 2008-09

 

Most CONSECUTIVE days of T"+ snowcover - since 1885

1.) 119 days (Nov 25, 1903 - Mar 22, 1904)

2.) 109 days (Dec 6, 1977 - Mar 25, 1978)

3.) 101 days (Nov 30, 1919 - Mar 9, 1920)

3.) 101 days (Dec 6, 1962 - Mar 16, 1963)

5.) 99 days (Dec 9, 2013 - present) thru 3/17

 

Most CONSECUTIVE days of 1"+ snowcover - since 1885

1.) 81 days (Dec 12, 1903 - Mar 1, 1904)

2.) 77 days (Dec 31, 2013 - Mar 17, 2014) thru 3/17

3.) 74 days (Jan 1, 1978 - Mar 15, 1978)

4.) 73 days (Dec 11, 1944 - Feb 21, 1945)

Thank you for all this information, Josh.

[donsutherland1]

Near Record-to-Record Cold Shot to Follow Storm in the East...

 

In the wake of the bombogenesis event that will produce an offshore superstorm that will track well to the Southeast of the 40°N-70°W "benchmark," a shot of unseasonably cold air will follow. A number of locations in the East could see low temperature records challenged and perhaps broken, with March 27 being the most likely date.

 

Below are charts showing the GFS ensemble mean 850 mb anomalies and guidance vs. daily records for select cities. The warm seclusion shows up quite well on the 850 mb temperature anomalies chart, which is testament to the storm's forecast intensity.

 

 

There is a shot that the temperature could fall into the teens for a low in Baltimore during the 3/26-27 timeframe. If so, that would be the latest such readings have occurred there since 1923.