The_Global_Warmer Posted February 19, 2014 Author Share Posted February 19, 2014 The 12z GFS is off it's rocker. Or not. But it's unreal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted February 19, 2014 Author Share Posted February 19, 2014 And then the Superstorm coming out of the SW into that arctic airmass. How about a 700-1000 miles horizontal zone of warning criteria snow/sleet/zr? Jan 1st 1999 anyone? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 19, 2014 Share Posted February 19, 2014 Afternoon Thoughts: The Guidance Delivers Renewed Winter... 1. The GFS ensembles have grown even more impressed with the upcoming cold. Now, the ensembles are showing areas of cold anomalies of 2.5 sigma. If that materializes cities such as Chicago, Detroit, and Green Bay could add to their impressive number of subzero temperatures. 2. As noted previously, the cold will be coming at a time when the subtropical jet could be growing a little more active. As a result, the potential exists for above normal snowfall in parts of the eastern CONUS where seasonal snowfall has already been excessive. 3. In the longer-range, the Atlantic SSTAs are becoming somewhat similar to those of March 1967, with a strip of warm anomalies running off the East Coast. As wavelengths shorten in the midst of what appears to be at least a cold start to the month, the potential could exist for a large-scale winter storm at some point. In fact, the GFS ensembles are hinting of such an event in the March 2-5 timeframe. While that is still speculative, the probability of a colder than normal March across much of the eastern CONUS (and Canada) continues to increase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shsg Falls Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 Don, The Omega block across the eastern Pacific seems to have been persistent since late October 2013. Do you have an idea of when the ridge may begin to collapse? Climatology would say it shouldn't last throughout Spring, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew-Northern Italy Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 Good luck guys, you have an heck of a winter ... this year you seem to have stolen all our frost and snow ... Here it's simply the mildest winter of the past 300 years ... till now in my town we have had 17 days of frost (lows <32°F) since november, and 0 in february ... it's just unbelievable ... continuous western flow with one atlantic low after another since mid-december ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 Good luck guys, you have an heck of a winter ... this year you seem to have stolen all our frost and snow ... Here it's simply the mildest winter of the past 300 years ... till now in my town we have had 17 days of frost (lows <32°F) since november, and 0 in february ... it's just unbelievable ... continuous western flow with one atlantic low after another since mid-december ... Mother nature's way of balancing things out after you stole all of our cold for a couple of winters this decade. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 24, 2014 Share Posted February 24, 2014 Morning thoughts... 1. A colder pattern is now returning to much of the eastern half of the CONUS. The coldest anomalies over the next 7-14 days will likely cover the Northern and Central Plains, Great Lakes region, Ohio Valley region, northern Mid-Atlantic, and New England areas, along with Ontario and Quebec. 2. During the height of the cold, one or more days with subzero low temperatures are likely in such cities as Chicago, Detroit, and Green Bay. Green Bay currently has 45 such days for the winter. That ranks 2nd, tied with winters 1958-59 and 1962-63. The all-time record for Green Bay is 48 days, which was established in winter 1976-77. Green Bay has a shot to match or beat that record by the time the cold recedes. 3. An increasingly active subtropical jet coupled with the cold should allow for above normal snowfall for the February 25-March 10 timeframe in the Midwest/Great Lakes region eastward to the northern Mid-Atlantic and southern New England areas. By the end of this period, seasonal snowfall totals will likely exceed 70" in Allentown, 70" in Chicago, 80" in Detroit, 60" in Boston, 60" in New York City and 60" in Philadelphia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew-Northern Italy Posted February 24, 2014 Share Posted February 24, 2014 Mother nature's way of balancing things out after you stole all of our cold for a couple of winters this decade. Just winter 2005-2006 has been an awesome winter with a nice mix of cold and snow (but waaay milder than many other winters of the past century), but the majority of the recent winters have been above the average and not that snowy, believe me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 Just winter 2005-2006 has been an awesome winter with a nice mix of cold and snow (but waaay milder than many other winters of the past century), but the majority of the recent winters have been above the average and not that snowy, believe me I thought 2009-2010 and 2010-2011 were cold and snowy in western Europe? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mempho Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 Good luck guys, you have an heck of a winter ... this year you seem to have stolen all our frost and snow ... Here it's simply the mildest winter of the past 300 years ... till now in my town we have had 17 days of frost (lows <32°F) since november, and 0 in february ... it's just unbelievable ... continuous western flow with one atlantic low after another since mid-december ... We've had zero snow, Matthew. Sent from my SCH-L710 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 Don, The MJO is looking to get quite active in regions 7,8 and 1. Any thoughts? Thanks, Jamie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 Don, The MJO is looking to get quite active in regions 7,8 and 1. Any thoughts? Thanks, Jamie The MJO's evolution is increasing my confidence that March will wind up colder and probably snowier than normal in a large part of the area that has already enjoyed a lot of snow and perhaps even a little farther south (e.g., Baltimore-Washington metro area). The 2/25-3/10 period still looks favorable for above normal snowfall and the MJO's evolution is one of the pieces that is falling into place to make it possible. Another big piece is the AO's turn to negative, as some of the biggest March snowstorms have occurred when the AO was negative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 Yesterday saw light snow accumulations in Columbus and Detroit. With 0.3", Columbus reached 50.9" snowfall for the season. That is the 5th highest figure on record. Detroit reached 78.9", tying it with winter 1925-26 for its second snowiest winter on record. Also, just before 11 pm CST, the temperature fell to -1° in Green Bay. With a temperature of -9° this morning, Green Bay has now had 47 days on which the temperature fell below zero degrees. Only winter 1976-77 had more such days with 48. Green Bay should set a new record later this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Also, just before 11 pm CST, the temperature fell to -1° in Green Bay. With a temperature of -9° this morning, Green Bay has now had 47 days on which the temperature fell below zero degrees. Only winter 1976-77 had more such days with 48. Green Bay should set a new record later this week. That's pretty amazing Don for the cold in that region to be on par with the historic '77 winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 The closest 500mb pattern match from previous winters appears to be 1994, followed by 1984 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew-Northern Italy Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 I thought 2009-2010 and 2010-2011 were cold and snowy in western Europe? Not everywhere. Here in northern Italy they have been average at best. @ Mempho: but at least you have had some pretty cold shots even down there in Memphis. Here since mid december we are having a non-stop atlantic/western flow ... deadly boring and mild ... with the only "plus" of the load of snow on the mountains ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 With a temperature of -2° at 7 am CST, Green Bay recorded its 48th day with a below zero low temperature this winter. That ties the all-time mark established during winter 1976-77. Duluth registered its 65th such low temperature. That ranks 4th below winters 1874-75, 1964-65, and 1958-59. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swflow Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Don, Do you think the pattern transitions to a warmer phase around days 11-15? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 International Falls, MN hit -33F this morning. That sets a new record for Feb 27th breaking the old record of -30F in 1962. As of February 26th, both Duluth, MN and International Falls, MN had the 2nd coldest winter on record there. The coldest winter on record at Internaional Falls was 1978-1979 with an average temperature of -2.9F. The current average through February 26th is -2.5F. The final record will be close as the projected temperature using NWS forecasts would dip to -2.8F. The coldest winter on record at Duluth, MN is 3.7F in 1874-1875. The current average through February 26th is 4.1F. The projected average by February 28th is 3.8F...again, very close to the all time record coldest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 If my calculation is correct, Chicago's met winter average temperature through 2/26 is 18.9. So given the cold today and the cold start tomorrow, already a lock for #3 coldest winter at least. #1 is 1903-1904 at 18.3 and #2 is 1979-79 at 18.4. Sent from my SCH-I535 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Don, Do you think the pattern transitions to a warmer phase around days 11-15? In most of the cases where there has been severe early March cold, the pattern transitioned to less cold relative to normal toward mid-March. At the same time, there were some periodic shots of cold toward the end of March and in some cases snowfall opportunities even after the pattern had become milder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew-Northern Italy Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 lol at all these records ... Here if we would have the coldest winter of the past, to say, 100 years, it would be almost a disaster, because people have been so "spoiled" by the mildness of the past 30 years. I've forgot when has been our last winter (dec-jan-feb) below average. Winter 2005-2006, one of the best of the past 20 years, closed about the historic averages ... That's the main difference we see between U.S. and Europe: you don't have any problem to break old records of snow and cold or close months and seasons below average, while here lately it's a success to have values near the averages ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 This morning saw Green Bay record its 49th subzero low temperature of the winter. That sets a new all-time mark for most subzero minimum temperatures during a winter. In addition, the -20° temperature at 6 am CST broke the daily record low reading of -17°, which was set in 1962. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Morning Thoughts: The Remarkable Winter of 2013-14 Continues to Deliver... 1. This morning saw more impressive cold covering a large part of eastern North America. Green Bay had a daily record low temperature of -21°, its coldest reading this late in the season since March 2, 1962 when the temperature also reached -21°. New York City had a low temperature of 9°, its coldest reading this late in the season since March 19, 1967 when the temperature fell to 8°. 2. Green Bay established a new record for most subzero temperatures during a winter with its 49th such temperature this morning. The old record was 48, which was set in 1976-77. Duluth registered its 66th such temperature, tying it for 3rd on the all-time list with winter 1958-59. 3. A light accumulation of snow pushed Detroit to its 2nd snowiest winter on record. Seasonal snowfall for select cities in comparison to all-time records through 2/27 is as follows. 4. The 2/25-3/10 period remains on course to be a snowier than average one for cities such as Allentown, Boston, Bridgeport, Chicago, Columbus, Detroit, New York City, Newark, and Philadelphia. The possibility also exists for Baltimore and Washington, DC. By the time a storm exits on March 4, Boston should have more than 60" seasonal snowfall, Chicago should have reached 70", Detroit should have reached 80", New York City should be past 60" and perhaps near 70", and Philadelphia should be past 65" and perhaps also near 70". 5. The forthcoming storm, which increasingly looks to produce an area of 10" or greater snows is forecast to occur near the anniversary of the March 2-5, 1960 blizzard, though it does not appear likely that the upcoming storm will have as big an impact as that earlier storm. In short, such storms are not unprecedented. Below is some information concerning the March 1960 blizzard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitelakeroy Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 lol at all these records ... Here if we would have the coldest winter of the past, to say, 100 years, it would be almost a disaster, because people have been so "spoiled" by the mildness of the past 30 years. I've forgot when has been our last winter (dec-jan-feb) below average. Winter 2005-2006, one of the best of the past 20 years, closed about the historic averages ... That's the main difference we see between U.S. and Europe: you don't have any problem to break old records of snow and cold or close months and seasons below average, while here lately it's a success to have values near the averages ... It has been one incredible winter here in several parts of Michigan and parts of the Great Lakes. The amount of records being broken in just this one season is unbelievable and I know this is going to be a once in a lifetime winter. There are records not just broken but smashed. Here is a good thread showing the Detroit records: http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/42672-detroit-winter-201314-record-watch/ You right though that this type of historic winter in some areas could be a devastating. Thankfully here most of the devastation is just our roads and some peoples pockets (heating bills)! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 4. The 2/25-3/10 period remains on course to be a snowier than average one for cities such as Allentown, Boston, Bridgeport, Chicago, Columbus, Detroit, New York City, Newark, and Philadelphia. The possibility also exists for Baltimore and Washington, DC. By the time a storm exits on March 4, Boston should have more than 60" seasonal snowfall, Chicago should have reached 70", Detroit should have reached 80", New York City should be past 60" and perhaps near 70", and Philadelphia should be past 65" and perhaps also near 70". 5. The forthcoming storm, which increasingly looks to produce an area of 10" or greater snows is forecast to occur near the anniversary of the March 2-5, 1960 blizzard, though it does not appear likely that the upcoming storm will have as big an impact as that earlier storm. In short, such storms are not unprecedented. Below is some information concerning the March 1960 blizzard. Don. Allentown, PA needs only 8.6 inches to break their all-time seasonal snowfall record. I believe that it's certainly quite possible that they accomplish this feat by Tuesday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 International Falls, MN hit -33F this morning. That sets a new record for Feb 27th breaking the old record of -30F in 1962. As of February 26th, both Duluth, MN and International Falls, MN had the 2nd coldest winter on record there. The coldest winter on record at Internaional Falls was 1978-1979 with an average temperature of -2.9F. The current average through February 26th is -2.5F. The final record will be close as the projected temperature using NWS forecasts would dip to -2.8F. The coldest winter on record at Duluth, MN is 3.7F in 1874-1875. The current average through February 26th is 4.1F. The projected average by February 28th is 3.8F...again, very close to the all time record coldest. The final numbers for Duluth and International Falls puts 2013-2014 as the 2nd coldest winter on record for both locations...the top coldest are as follows for each site by average temperature: Duluth, MN: 1. 3.7F (1874-1875) 2. 3.8F (2013-2014) 3. 4.1F (1884-1885) 4. 4.6F (1916-1917) 5. 5.0F (1903-1904) 6. 5.2F (1978-1979) International Falls: 1. -2.9F (1978-1979) 2. -2.7F (2013-2014) 3. -0.9F (1908-1909) 3. -0.9F (1958-1959) 5. 0.8F (1964-1965) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stradivarious Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 With a temperature of -2° at 7 am CST, Green Bay recorded its 48th day with a below zero low temperature this winter. That ties the all-time mark established during winter 1976-77. Duluth registered its 65th such low temperature. That ranks 4th below winters 1874-75, 1964-65, and 1958-59. Winter of 1976-1977 I was in Winnipeg, Canada. The locals didnt think the winter was so bad that year but to me (especially since I had moved there from Orlando) it was down right amazing. I dont recall it getting much below 40 degrees below zero, but we had a three week spell where temps hovered between -15 to -35 below F...Weather Forecast communications were in one way very primitive, but also cutting edge. All TV was Cable, and there was a channel dedicated to weather. (That was cutting edge) It was totally and only typeface. I guess the thing that was most amazing was the very short notice we got when major arctic fronts came thru. Since it was before good weather satellites, and virtually no one lives north of the southern shore of Lake Winnipeg...about 100 miles north of the city, you got about one hours notice. Like, "extreme cold wave arriving within the hour, and exposed skin will freeze in less that a minute." So you had to really be aware, and respect the cold, because it could kill you. Fast. Even it it was a balmy day only -10 F., because it could change on a dime. I dont know if most people realize from a practical sense, that there is not much different between F and C...when you are talking 35-45 below zero. -38 and 50 mph winds are scary, and I think the winds got quite a bit higher as they funneled between the 20 story buildings..It's coming directly from Siberia, with nothing but permafrost or ice to travel over. Snow was on the road from October to April, they drove like New Yorkers...steam would come out of every manhole cover, every nook and cranny of every building when it got real cold. Some nights when there was no wind, the steam would rise in pillars all over the city, perhaps 500-1000 feet high, or more, just a breath taking sight... well enough, It is a different world of winter up there, everyone should experience it at least once Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 On Saturday, Bradley International Airport in Windsor Locks, Conn. recorded a March temperature of 0F for only the second time in the past 46 years. (3/7/2003, -6F) The last time it happened before that was March 1967. They could possibly flirt with zero again tomorrow morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 This is a nice thread that can throws in tidbits for several different regions into one don! It has been agreed about by meteorologists that the winter of 2013-14 is the most severe winter in Detroit since 1880-81 for a combination of cold and snow. http://www.freep.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=2014303010014 Winter finished the 8th coldest on record (DJF temp 20.9F), and Satuday nights 4.6" brings the season snowfall to 83.8", easily 2nd place and creeping in on the 1880-81 record of 93.6". (It was the snowiest MET winter on record by 14.4", but thats a stat of much lesser importance imo, should always count season snowfall). Snowfall is 49.3" above normal as of March 3rd, and we have been buried under a snowpack this winter that blows away all other years on record. I only hope payment isnt TOO bad in coming years Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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