Winter 2013-14 medium range discussion

[mempho]

Don,

I realize that you like to look at climate issues and I thought this might be tight up your alley. I realize you're busy and don't want to impose But I think you'd go me it interesting and it would be of great help for us if you have some time. So, while this initially may sound like a bit of sour grapes over this winter bring so cold and snowless, many of us have reluctantly speculated that the following is not a statistical aberration.

Many of us in the region stretching from just SW of Memphis through Nashville and on up through Bowling Green, KY have seen a decimation of our snowfall averages over the past 25 years. Now, before you chalk this up to just a couple of big misses and small snowfall averages, just take a look at the numbers:

For instance, the Memphis snow record goes back to the late 1880s. In the approximately 80 years of record from inception until 1970, Memphis averaged in excess of 8 inches of snow per year (all-time average).

By the year 2000, the all-time average dropped to 5.2 inches.

After next year, 1985 will roll off the 30 year average and our 30 year average will be in the neighborhood of 3 inches.

Now, the Nashville drop is even worse (relative to normal) and Bowling Green is just as bad, perhaps worse, than Nashville.

This type of drop-off is causing great suspicion. Are we a casualty of climate change. Is this a multidecadenal storm track issue? Is there some facet of industrialisation that is causing this? Is it just bad luck? We have no idea.

Noone has seriously looked into this because so very few people know about it and I suspect even fewer would care. However, if this were to happen in the 95 corridor, this would be cited as undeniable proof of climate change.

If this is something you'd like to look at, we'd certainly appreciate your help. If you'd like, we can provide seasonal snowfall data, by winter, in Excel.

[donsutherland1]

Don,

I realize that you like to look at climate issues and I thought this might be tight up your alley. I realize you're busy and don't want to impose But I think you'd go me it interesting and it would be of great help for us if you have some time. So, while this initially may sound like a bit of sour grapes over this winter bring so cold and snowless, many of us have reluctantly speculated that the following is not a statistical aberration.

Many of us in the region stretching from just SW of Memphis through Nashville and on up through Bowling Green, KY have seen a decimation of our snowfall averages over the past 25 years. Now, before you chalk this up to just a couple of big misses and small snowfall averages, just take a look at the numbers:

For instance, the Memphis snow record goes back to the late 1880s. In the approximately 80 years of record from inception until 1970, Memphis averaged in excess of 8 inches of snow per year (all-time average).

By the year 2000, the all-time average dropped to 5.2 inches.

After next year, 1985 will roll off the 30 year average and our 30 year average will be in the neighborhood of 3 inches.

Now, the Nashville drop is even worse (relative to normal) and Bowling Green is just as bad, perhaps worse, than Nashville.

This type of drop-off is causing great suspicion. Are we a casualty of climate change. Is this a multidecadenal storm track issue? Is there some facet of industrialisation that is causing this? Is it just bad luck? We have no idea.

Noone has seriously looked into this because so very few people know about it and I suspect even fewer would care. However, if this were to happen in the 95 corridor, this would be cited as undeniable proof of climate change.

If this is something you'd like to look at, we'd certainly appreciate your help. If you'd like, we can provide seasonal snowfall data, by winter, in Excel.

I will have a look at this over the next week or two. It should be noted that one can't reliably separate the climate change signal from natural variability when it comes to such matters. Nevertheless, one might look for declines in seasonal snowfall first in areas where warming is occurring and winter precipitation is little changed. Warming coupled with little change in such precipitation could lead to fewer snowfall opportunities. At the same time, it should be noted that some literature has pointed to the PDO- as leading to more frequent and widespread droughts. It might be possible that a combination of the longer-term PDO cycle, internal variability not linked to that cycle, and climate change are all contributing. On the latter, I'll have to look for the regional climate change projections to have a better idea.  

[donsutherland1]

Updated table for the January 25-February 15, 2014 Period...

 

 

The period has proved exceptionally snowy from the Midwest to the Mid-Atlantic and southern New England region. Almost in fitting fashion, some of the region will be impacted by a moderate to significant snowfall. Boston should easily surpass 50" snowfall for the winter and there's a small chance it could reach 60" by the time the storm departs. Providence should reach 40" seasonal snowfall.

 

Next week will see a period of moderation overspread the region. Temperatures in some of the area could surge to 50° or above in New York City and even Boston at the height of the moderation and 60° or above in Washington, DC.

 

However, it increasingly looks like this period of moderation will be temporary as occurred during January. If so, cold could return toward the end of March. At the same time, the subtropical jet might again be growing a little more active. That might create renewed opportunities for snowfall. This is still far out, but it is one plausible scenario of how things might evolve.

[cny rider]

Updated table for the January 25-February 15, 2014 Period...

 

 

The period has proved exceptionally snowy from the Midwest to the Mid-Atlantic and southern New England region. Almost in fitting fashion, some of the region will be impacted by a moderate to significant snowfall. Boston should easily surpass 50" snowfall for the winter and there's a small chance it could reach 60" by the time the storm departs. Providence should reach 40" seasonal snowfall.

 

Next week will see a period of moderation overspread the region. Temperatures in some of the area could surge to 50° or above in New York City and even Boston at the height of the moderation and 60° or above in Washington, DC.

 

However, it increasingly looks like this period of moderation will be temporary as occurred during January. If so, cold could return toward the end of March. At the same time, the subtropical jet might again be growing a little more active. That might create renewed opportunities for snowfall. This is still far out, but it is one plausible scenario of how things might evolve.

 

Don thanks for your wonderful posts.  I really appreciate them.

You meant to say cold would return by the end of February, I'm hoping?

[Edge Weather]

Don thanks for your wonderful posts.  I really appreciate them.

You meant to say cold would return by the end of February, I'm hoping?

Yeah, I am pretty sure he meant by the end of February, with snow chances returning then.  

[donsutherland1]

Don thanks for your wonderful posts.  I really appreciate them.

You meant to say cold would return by the end of February, I'm hoping?

Yes. There is ensemble support for colder weather returning during the last 2 or 3 days of February.

[donsutherland1]

The final data for the 1/25-2/15 period is posted below:

 

 

In the Monday-Tuesday timeframe, Chicago and Detroit will likely pick up at least several inches of additional accumulation. Some snowfall with accumulations is also possible in such cities as Philadelphia, Newark, New York, Providence, and Boston, among others.

[Chicago WX]

Indianapolis has set their winter (DJF) snowfall record. And for the season, 2013-14 is now tied with 1995-96 for 3rd place. Records since 1884.

 

Snowiest Winter (December-February)

51.6" in 2013-14

51.0" in 1981-82

49.7" in 1977-78

46.9" in 2002-03

39.3" in 1973-74

 

Snowiest Season (July-June)

58.2" in 1981-82

57.9" in 1977-78

51.7" in 2013-14

51.7" in 1995-96

50.0" in 2002-03

46.8" in 1895-96

[odwalla]

Don,

I realize that you like to look at climate issues and I thought this might be tight up your alley. I realize you're busy and don't want to impose But I think you'd go me it interesting and it would be of great help for us if you have some time. So, while this initially may sound like a bit of sour grapes over this winter bring so cold and snowless, many of us have reluctantly speculated that the following is not a statistical aberration.

Many of us in the region stretching from just SW of Memphis through Nashville and on up through Bowling Green, KY have seen a decimation of our snowfall averages over the past 25 years. Now, before you chalk this up to just a couple of big misses and small snowfall averages, just take a look at the numbers:

For instance, the Memphis snow record goes back to the late 1880s. In the approximately 80 years of record from inception until 1970, Memphis averaged in excess of 8 inches of snow per year (all-time average).

By the year 2000, the all-time average dropped to 5.2 inches.

After next year, 1985 will roll off the 30 year average and our 30 year average will be in the neighborhood of 3 inches.

Now, the Nashville drop is even worse (relative to normal) and Bowling Green is just as bad, perhaps worse, than Nashville.

This type of drop-off is causing great suspicion. Are we a casualty of climate change. Is this a multidecadenal storm track issue? Is there some facet of industrialisation that is causing this? Is it just bad luck? We have no idea.

Noone has seriously looked into this because so very few people know about it and I suspect even fewer would care. However, if this were to happen in the 95 corridor, this would be cited as undeniable proof of climate change.

If this is something you'd like to look at, we'd certainly appreciate your help. If you'd like, we can provide seasonal snowfall data, by winter, in Excel.

Good post, and unfortunately, it is also happening along I-95; the dramatic decline in averages began in Richmond ~20 years ago, and in DC about ten years ago.

 

The same has happened to Portland and Seattle.

 

Philadelphia and NYC are next on the chopping block... I would guess by the 2030s. 

[Ed Lizard]

Looking at pix on some of the subforums of some fresh snow on top of several feet of compressed snow pack, or several inches of liquid equivalent all over the Northeast, and many frozen rivers which will produce ice floes (and ice dams/jams) when the ice starts to melt and breakup-

 

 

Late Winter into Spring- people looking at a slow and dry warm up, or minimum flooding issues, or an abrupt and wet warming, with maximum flooding issues.

[Absolute Humidity]

Good post, and unfortunately, it is also happening along I-95; the dramatic decline in averages began in Richmond ~20 years ago, and in DC about ten years ago.

 

The same has happened to Portland and Seattle.

 

Philadelphia and NYC are next on the chopping block... I would guess by the 2030s.

A lot of this looks cyclical PDO related as during the 1970 2000 period, NYC Philly were in a bit of a decline, but since 2000, we've had one of the most prolific snowy periods on record, especially north of 40.

[donsutherland1]

A few quick evening thoughts...

 

1. With a -1° reading this morning, Detroit registered its 13th subzero reading of the winter. That is the most since winter 1978-79, which also had 13 subzero mornings. With another impressive cold shot possible around or after 2/23 in the Great Lakes region, at least another such reading is a distinct possibility.

 

2. With 4.0" snow so far, Chicago's seasonal figure has risen to 66.9" Winter 2013-14 now ranks as the 5th snowiest winter on record in Chicago, just below winter 1966-67, which had 68.4" snow.

 

3. After the system now impacting the Midwest produces some accumulating snow in the Mid-Atlantic and New England regions, a moderation will occur. The moderation will be temporary. An Arctic cold front in the 2/23-24 timeframe could produce some snow, along with bringing back much colder than normal regions.

 

4. Additional accumulations of snow are likely over the next few weeks in many of the cities that already have seen 2013-14 rank among the 5-10 snowiest winters. Top 2 or 3 outcomes in such cities as Detroit, New York, Philadelphia appear possible, if not likely. Columbus, OH is within reach of its snowiest winter on record, needing just 3.9" to set a new record.

[Ottawa Blizzard]

A few quick evening thoughts...

 

1. With a -1° reading this morning, Detroit registered its 13th subzero reading of the winter. That is the most since winter 1978-79, which also had 13 subzero mornings. With another impressive cold shot possible around or after 2/23 in the Great Lakes region, at least another such reading is a distinct possibility.

 

2. With 4.0" snow so far, Chicago's seasonal figure has risen to 66.9" Winter 2013-14 now ranks as the 5th snowiest winter on record in Chicago, just below winter 1966-67, which had 68.4" snow.

 

3. After the system now impacting the Midwest produces some accumulating snow in the Mid-Atlantic and New England regions, a moderation will occur. The moderation will be temporary. An Arctic cold front in the 2/23-24 timeframe could produce some snow, along with bringing back much colder than normal regions.

 

4. Additional accumulations of snow are likely over the next few weeks in many of the cities that already have seen 2013-14 rank among the 5-10 snowiest winters. Top 2 or 3 outcomes in such cities as Detroit, New York, Philadelphia appear possible, if not likely. Columbus, OH is within reach of its snowiest winter on record, needing just 3.9" to set a new record.

Don, there is a chance could finish up with the coldest February since 1979. It all depends on how warm it gets this week and whether the cold coming the last week of the month can balance it out.

[1900hurricane]

This has probably been mentioned elsewhere, but I feel that it is worth noting that today's 12Z guidance looks very interesting pertaining to displaced Arctic cold in the medium range.

 

[Minnesota Meso]

A few quick evening thoughts...

 

1. With a -1° reading this morning, Detroit registered its 13th subzero reading of the winter. That is the most since winter 1978-79, which also had 13 subzero mornings. With another impressive cold shot possible around or after 2/23 in the Great Lakes region, at least another such reading is a distinct possibility.

 

2. With 4.0" snow so far, Chicago's seasonal figure has risen to 66.9" Winter 2013-14 now ranks as the 5th snowiest winter on record in Chicago, just below winter 1966-67, which had 68.4" snow.

 

3. After the system now impacting the Midwest produces some accumulating snow in the Mid-Atlantic and New England regions, a moderation will occur. The moderation will be temporary. An Arctic cold front in the 2/23-24 timeframe could produce some snow, along with bringing back much colder than normal regions.

 

4. Additional accumulations of snow are likely over the next few weeks in many of the cities that already have seen 2013-14 rank among the 5-10 snowiest winters. Top 2 or 3 outcomes in such cities as Detroit, New York, Philadelphia appear possible, if not likely. Columbus, OH is within reach of its snowiest winter on record, needing just 3.9" to set a new record.

 

Don:  Duluth MN just set a record for days below zero....an all time record, now this is cold.

 

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/news/display_cmsstory.php?wfo=dlh&storyid=100480&source=0

[donsutherland1]

Don:  Duluth MN just set a record for days below zero....an all time record, now this is cold.

 

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/news/display_cmsstory.php?wfo=dlh&storyid=100480&source=0

Thanks for this information. That's very impressive. This has been a remarkable winter with most of the Hemisphere's anomalous cold persistently draining into North America.

[pondo1000]

A few quick evening thoughts...

 

1. With a -1° reading this morning, Detroit registered its 13th subzero reading of the winter. That is the most since winter 1978-79, which also had 13 subzero mornings. With another impressive cold shot possible around or after 2/23 in the Great Lakes region, at least another such reading is a distinct possibility.

 

2. With 4.0" snow so far, Chicago's seasonal figure has risen to 66.9" Winter 2013-14 now ranks as the 5th snowiest winter on record in Chicago, just below winter 1966-67, which had 68.4" snow.

 

3. After the system now impacting the Midwest produces some accumulating snow in the Mid-Atlantic and New England regions, a moderation will occur. The moderation will be temporary. An Arctic cold front in the 2/23-24 timeframe could produce some snow, along with bringing back much colder than normal regions.

 

4. Additional accumulations of snow are likely over the next few weeks in many of the cities that already have seen 2013-14 rank among the 5-10 snowiest winters. Top 2 or 3 outcomes in such cities as Detroit, New York, Philadelphia appear possible, if not likely. Columbus, OH is within reach of its snowiest winter on record, needing just 3.9" to set a new record.

Hi Don,

I really enjoy reading your posts so thank you. I think CMH needs like 10-12 more inches to reach #1. I could be wrong, but could you verify? Thanks again!

[donsutherland1]

Cold and Opportunities for Snowfall Likely to Return After Brief Period of Moderation...

 

In the wake of today's system that brought light snows to parts of the Mid-Atlantic region and southern New England areas, along with localized heavier snows in parts of New England, after bringing a brief period of heavy snow to the Great Lakes region, milder conditions will overspread the region. At the height of the warmth, readings could reach or top 60° in such cities as Washington and Philadelphia. Readings in the 50s could reach parts of New England, including Boston.

 

However, the milder weather is likely to be short-lived. There is strong agreement among the GFS and ECMWF ensembles that another period of much below normal temperatures will return. Currently, the GFS ensembles suggest readings of 1.5σ 7-9 days out. This winter, one has often seen even more impressive anomalies.

 

Already, the number of subzero lows in the Midwest and Great Lakes area has been impressive. Some figures for select cities:

 

Chicago: 22 (most since 1981-82 when there were 22 and tied for 4th most such days on record)

Columbus: 8 (most since 1989-90 when there were 8 such days)

Detroit: 13 (most since 1983-84 when there were 15 and tied for 7th most such days on record)

Green Bay: 44 (most since 1976-77 when there were 48 and tied for 4th most such days on record)

Indianapolis: 12 (most since 1983-84 when there were 15 such days)

Minneapolis-St. Paul: 42 (most since 1981-82 when there were 45 such days)

 

Some of those locations are likely to see additional subzero low temperatures when the cold returns. Below are charts showing the GFS ensembles for 2/26 0z, low temperatures associated with various standardized anomalies, along with record low temperatures for the 2/25-27 period:

 

 

In addition, the return of the cold should provide for additional snowfall opportunities in an area running from the Midwest to the northern Mid-Atlantic and southern New England areas, especially as the subtropical jet might be a little more active yet again. Perhaps the best opportunities for above normal snowfall lie in the 15-day period beginning 2/24. The cold should be sufficient to allow for snowfall opportunities in Baltimore and Washington, DC, as well.

 

A number of cities in the area described above already have achieved among their 10 highest winter snowfall amounts. The below chart highlights a number of such cities:

 

 

Finally, in terms of March, the possibility of at least one significant shot of cold exists. For example, among the winters that saw 50" or more snow in New York City by the end of February, all six of those winters had their lowest March temperature below 20°, four had at their lowest March temperature below 15°, and one had its lowest March temperature below 10°. The median lowest temperature for March was 11° and the mean was 13°. Considering that Canada will likely retain a large body of anomalously cold air as March commences, cold should be available to be tapped should the pattern allow for it. Overall, odds are growing for a colder than normal March across the Northern Plains, Midwest, Great Lakes, and New England with the possibility that the cold anomalies could be even more expansive. Much of Canada, except for western Canada will probably be colder than normal. This is not yet cast in stone, but the highest probability of cold anomalies is for much of Canada (including Ontario and Quebec) and the northern tier of the CONUS.

[donsutherland1]

Hi Don,

I really enjoy reading your posts so thank you. I think CMH needs like 10-12 more inches to reach #1. I could be wrong, but could you verify? Thanks again!

I've searched the NWS data for Columbus and have not found any winters higher than 54.1" (1977-78). The site doesn't contain extremes nor month/seasonal snowfall figures that I could find. One reference terms the 54.1" a "near record" figure (http://www.columbusmemory.org/sites/columbusmemory.org/files/Columbus_Weather_Events_0.pdf) but doesn't include a higher figure or year. I don't have access to earlier data beyond the CMH site (1939-present), so I can't rule out that some earlier winter might have had more snowfall.

[gymengineer]

A lot of this looks cyclical PDO related as during the 1970 2000 period, NYC Philly were in a bit of a decline, but since 2000, we've had one of the most prolific snowy periods on record, especially north of 40.

Not "especially north of 40", it's pretty much "exclusively north of 40.":

Zwyts compiled the grim stats for DC: For the past 25 seasons, we are as of this morning the 4th "snowiest" at only 15.5", which is only 0.1" above the 1981-2010 30-year mean. So, aside from three seasons out of 25, DC hasn't had any snowy winters; this one can't be counted as particularly snowy either for the urban core (yet--- maybe we'll get a couple more storms).

[Snowman99]

Hi Don, enjoy your posts very much. What do you see for St. louis the next few weeks? Getting close to that 30 inch mark, hopefully can surpass it and get closer to 35-40. Thanks.

[donsutherland1]

Hi Don, enjoy your posts very much. What do you see for St. louis the next few weeks? Getting close to that 30 inch mark, hopefully can surpass it and get closer to 35-40. Thanks.

IMO, St. Louis is very likely to reach and exceed 30".

[Chicago WX]

I've searched the NWS data for Columbus and have not found any winters higher than 54.1" (1977-78). The site doesn't contain extremes nor month/seasonal snowfall figures that I could find. One reference terms the 54.1" a "near record" figure (http://www.columbusmemory.org/sites/columbusmemory.org/files/Columbus_Weather_Events_0.pdf) but doesn't include a higher figure or year. I don't have access to earlier data beyond the CMH site (1939-present), so I can't rule out that some earlier winter might have had more snowfall.

 

Don,

 

A poster on here named jbcmh81 is a historian of weather records for Columbus...and here's what he gave me as their top 10 snowiest seasons (records from 1878 to present).

 

1) 67.8" in 1909-10

2) 62.4" in 1880-81

3) 54.1" in 1995-96

3) 54.1" in 1977-78

5) 50.6" in 2002-03

6) 50.5" in 2013-14 thru today

7) 48.5" in 2009-10

8) 46.6" in 1966-67

9) 45.3" in 2007-08

10) 44.2" in 1969-70

 

As well to help in any further research of any kind, here's a few sites that have historical records/statistics for many cities in the U.S.

 

http://climodtest.nrcc.cornell.edu

 

http://mrcc.isws.illinois.edu/CLIMATE/ Need to register on this site, but it's free.

[donsutherland1]

 

Don,

 

A poster on here named jbcmh81 is a historian of weather records for Columbus...and here's what he gave me as their top 10 snowiest seasons (records from 1878 to present).

 

1) 67.8" in 1909-10

2) 62.4" in 1880-81

3) 54.1" in 1995-96

3) 54.1" in 1977-78

5) 50.6" in 2002-03

6) 50.5" in 2013-14 thru today

7) 48.5" in 2009-10

8) 46.6" in 1966-67

9) 45.3" in 2007-08

10) 44.2" in 1969-70

 

As well to help in any further research of any kind, here's a few sites that have historical records/statistics for many cities in the U.S.

 

http://climodtest.nrcc.cornell.edu

 

http://mrcc.isws.illinois.edu/CLIMATE/ Need to register on this site, but it's free.

Many thanks.

 

I had run both the NRCC and MRCC data earlier. My cache may not have been cleared, as the 67.8" figure shows up at home when I run the rankings. The 1880-81 data is listed as Missing.

 

The future list for snowfall totals will be updated to reflect JBCMH81's data.

[jbcmh81]

I've searched the NWS data for Columbus and have not found any winters higher than 54.1" (1977-78). The site doesn't contain extremes nor month/seasonal snowfall figures that I could find. One reference terms the 54.1" a "near record" figure (http://www.columbusmemory.org/sites/columbusmemory.org/files/Columbus_Weather_Events_0.pdf) but doesn't include a higher figure or year. I don't have access to earlier data beyond the CMH site (1939-present), so I can't rule out that some earlier winter might have had more snowfall.

 

Don, the all-time snowfall season was 1909-10 with 67.8".  1880-81 is 2nd with 62.4".  1977-78 and 1995-96 are in 3rd with the 54.1". 

[jbcmh81]

 

Don,

 

A poster on here named jbcmh81 is a historian of weather records for Columbus...and here's what he gave me as their top 10 snowiest seasons (records from 1878 to present).

 

1) 67.8" in 1909-10

2) 62.4" in 1880-81

3) 54.1" in 1995-96

3) 54.1" in 1977-78

5) 50.6" in 2002-03

6) 50.5" in 2013-14 thru today

7) 48.5" in 2009-10

8) 46.6" in 1966-67

9) 45.3" in 2007-08

10) 44.2" in 1969-70

 

As well to help in any further research of any kind, here's a few sites that have historical records/statistics for many cities in the U.S.

 

http://climodtest.nrcc.cornell.edu

 

http://mrcc.isws.illinois.edu/CLIMATE/ Need to register on this site, but it's free.

 

Thanks, I didn't see this.

[jbcmh81]

Many thanks.

 

I had run both the NRCC and MRCC data earlier. My cache may not have been cleared, as the 67.8" figure shows up at home when I run the rankings. The 1880-81 data is listed as Missing.

 

The future list for snowfall totals will be updated to reflect JBCMH81's data.

 

The 1880-81 data I got from old original COOP forms from the original Downtown station, though I can no longer find these.

[Harry]

 

Don,

 

A poster on here named jbcmh81 is a historian of weather records for Columbus...and here's what he gave me as their top 10 snowiest seasons (records from 1878 to present).

 

1) 67.8" in 1909-10

2) 62.4" in 1880-81

3) 54.1" in 1995-96

3) 54.1" in 1977-78

5) 50.6" in 2002-03

6) 50.5" in 2013-14 thru today

7) 48.5" in 2009-10

8) 46.6" in 1966-67

9) 45.3" in 2007-08

10) 44.2" in 1969-70

 

As well to help in any further research of any kind, here's a few sites that have historical records/statistics for many cities in the U.S.

 

http://climodtest.nrcc.cornell.edu

 

http://mrcc.isws.illinois.edu/CLIMATE/ Need to register on this site, but it's free.

 

That top link is awesome. Very easy to use.

 

Thanks!

[RIC Airport]

Not "especially north of 40", it's pretty much "exclusively north of 40.":

Zwyts compiled the grim stats for DC: For the past 25 seasons, we are as of this morning the 4th "snowiest" at only 15.5", which is only 0.1" above the 1981-2010 30-year mean. So, aside from three seasons out of 25, DC hasn't had any snowy winters; this one can't be counted as particularly snowy either for the urban core (yet--- maybe we'll get a couple more storms).

Agreed. And for Richmond, despite such a mediocre number, 2013-14 so far is only the 5th snowiest winter such 1990. 1990 was seemingly a significant turning point in RIC's winter snowfall.

 

1. 28.3" 1995-96

2. 28.0" 2009-10

3. 17.0" 2002-03

4. 15.4" 1999-00

5. 10.9" 2013-14

6. 10.8" 2010-11

7. 9.7" 1993-94

8. 9.3" 1992-93

9. 8.7" 2001-02

10. 8.6" 2012-13

 

These are just 10, just imagine the numerous other seasons featuring less than this. The 1981-2010 average went way down to 10.3" and the 1898-2013 average is 12.7"

[The_Global_Warmer]

The 06z GFS tries to set off Yellowstone and start Armageddon.

Absolute insanity.  One of the most insane setups I have ever seen.

As the models goes into truncation with such low resolution it splits the energy and it's a run of the mill storm.  If this kind of set up really happened that energy over British Columbia off the Washington coast would probably phase with the massive Southern stream vort.