Winter 2013-14 medium range discussion

[vortmax]

Don,

 

Any thoughts as to why the MJO has been so tame this season?

 

Thanks,

Jamie

[donsutherland1]

Don -- I'm not sure if you have seen this from Bill Nichols in the NWS DVN discussion (

 

 

I was wondering your reactions to his long-range thoughts...

His thoughts are very interesting. They seem to support the idea of what I have termed moderation possibly beginning during the latter half of the 2/16-22 period and then perhaps resulting in a more zonal pattern for the last 7-10 days of the month. I don't yet have sufficient confidence to go beyond that. I suspect that big changes in the MJO and SOI in coming days would provide a sort of hint that a big pattern change is, in fact, starting to unfold.

 

In the meantime, the ENSO Region 3.4 anomalies are as cool as they have been this winter (-0.7°C in the latest weekly data following a January that saw an average -0.51°C anomaly).

[donsutherland1]

Don,

 

Any thoughts as to why the MJO has been so tame this season?

 

Thanks,

Jamie

Unfortunately, I don't have any good ideas about this. Furthermore, I'm not aware of any good literature that might explain such dynamics, so I suspect that scientific understanding of such phenomena is not very good at present so one probably won't find conclusive answers in the existing body of literature.

 

I suspect, much as the stratosphere -AO link is complex, where SSWs can trigger blocking but strong blocking can also trigger SSWs, the MJO can help drive the prevalent patterns, but the prevalent patterns can also feed back to influence the MJO. The exceptional EPO- regime might have been one driver. Some very strong EPO- patterns occurred in December 1983, November and December 1985, February 1989, and December 2009. The 1983, 1989, and 2009 cases all saw at least 12 days with low amplitude. November 1985 saw the last 7 days of the month have a low amplitude MJO and then the first 27 days of December have a low amplitude MJO. The November-December 1985 case provides perhaps the strongest argument that a link might exist, but the sample involved since MJO data became available in 1974 is too small to be very reliable.

[donsutherland1]

Morning thoughts...

 

1. Yesterday, the temperature fell to -1° in St. Louis. That was the third subzero low temperature of the winter there and the most since winter 1996-97 when there were 6. Yesterday's low temperature was also that city's first subzero reading in February since February 4, 1996 when the temperature bottomed out at -7°.

 

2. So far, St. Louis has picked up 4.7" snow this month, bringing its seasonal figure to 26.1". As noted previously in this thread, I believe it is likely that St. Louis will reach or exceed 30" for winter 2013-14.

 

3. A clipper system will likely impact parts of the East Coast on Sunday night and Monday. The 6z NAM and 3z SREF guidance blew it up into a moderate event. The 9z SREF backed down. Nevertheless, this brief fluctuation in qpf may be hinting that there is uncertainty in terms of how energetic the clipper is (upstream depictions differed on the runs) and that bears watching. For now, a lighter event remains the more likely scenario, but there is some probability (perhaps 1-in-4?) of a moderate event in a winter that has seen a number of clippers overperform with the guidance picking up on that outcome in the final 24-48 hours preceding the event.

 

4. The guidance is becoming more definitive about an EPO+ pattern developing in the long-range. It remains less certain with respect to Atlantic blocking. As the wavelengths shorten, the latter could become more important for eastern North America. Before then, the guidance related to the EPO argues for moderation setting in probably around 2/20 +/- a few days. Whether or not it would be preceded by a moderate or significant snowfall for some part of the East remains to be seen.

[Jonger]

Thanks, both for the kind words, and link. I didn't have data prior to 1930. I've bookmarked the link and fixed the message.

 

It appears to me that 2nd all time looks likely in Detroit, especially since the gap between 1st and 2nd is so great. Climatologically speaking, we average enough snow from now till May 1st to pretty much lock in 2nd place.

[donsutherland1]

Updated table for the January 25-February 15, 2014 Timeframe...

 

[Heisy]

Hey Don, while 2nd half of Feb is beginning to look warm for Eastern U.S., any early thoughts on (my favorite month) March? Nothing like March with a solid NAO block. 

[Absolute Humidity]

Hey Don, while 2nd half of Feb is beginning to look warm for Eastern U.S., any early thoughts on (my favorite month) March? Nothing like March with a solid NAO block.

If one were to blend 92/93 - 93/94, well we all know what happened in March of those years

[wildweatherman179]

If one were to blend 92/93 - 93/94, well we all know what happened in March of those years

I'd even take some of that in my neck of the woods. :-)

[donsutherland1]

Hey Don, while 2nd half of Feb is beginning to look warm for Eastern U.S., any early thoughts on (my favorite month) March? Nothing like March with a solid NAO block. 

I'm still uncertain on the outcome. Canada will probably wind up cold in most places, but the big question concerns how far south the cold anomalies might be. There are a lot of variables at play, including the possible warming of ENSO Region 3.4.

[Mikehobbyst]

I'm still uncertain on the outcome. Canada will probably wind up cold in most places, but the big question concerns how far south the cold anomalies might be. There are a lot of variables at play, including the possible warming of ENSO Region 3.4.

Don, do you think NYC will get lots of 34-38 degree days finally for 2/20-2/28 range to break the subfreezing streak?  Do you think we can spend 3/1 - 3/15 in the 37-42 degree range for highs most of the time? I do not see above 40-45 degrees consistently for at least until the last week of March. I see most of the next 6 weeks at 5-10 degrees below normal with the Canadian cold spilling frequently down thru 3/15 at least consistently.  If El Nino starts up next month say hello to cold spring and chilly summer.  Almost would lock that in...  1992 summer en route....  I fear we will be dealing with a 4-6 month Greenland Block as the - EPO swaps for a long term -NAO.  I also fear backdoor conditions for most of April through mid June, with a very short period of summer temps.  Would make last summer look hot like 1993 or 1988, and I think we could be on par for blending all the yucky summers 1992/2000/2009.  Do u see the risk of this happening w/ teleconnections.

[Damage In Tolland]

Don, do you think NYC will get lots of 34-38 degree days finally for 2/20-2/28 range to break the subfreezing streak?  Do you think we can spend 3/1 - 3/15 in the 37-42 degree range for highs most of the time? I do not see above 40-45 degrees consistently for at least until the last week of March. I see most of the next 6 weeks at 5-10 degrees below normal with the Canadian cold spilling frequently down thru 3/15 at least consistently.  If El Nino starts up next month say hello to cold spring and chilly summer.  Almost would lock that in...  1992 summer en route....  I fear we will be dealing with a 4-6 month Greenland Block as the - EPO swaps for a long term -NAO.  I also fear backdoor conditions for most of April through mid June, with a very short period of summer temps.  Would make last summer look hot like 1993 or 1988, and I think we could be on par for blending all the yucky summers 1992/2000/2009.  Do u see the risk of this happening w/ teleconnections.

What are you going to do when it's in the 50's and 60's the last week of Feb? Euro ens are a torch with +8-+10 850's

[donsutherland1]

Don, do you think NYC will get lots of 34-38 degree days finally for 2/20-2/28 range to break the subfreezing streak?  Do you think we can spend 3/1 - 3/15 in the 37-42 degree range for highs most of the time? I do not see above 40-45 degrees consistently for at least until the last week of March. I see most of the next 6 weeks at 5-10 degrees below normal with the Canadian cold spilling frequently down thru 3/15 at least consistently.  If El Nino starts up next month say hello to cold spring and chilly summer.  Almost would lock that in...  1992 summer en route....  I fear we will be dealing with a 4-6 month Greenland Block as the - EPO swaps for a long term -NAO.  I also fear backdoor conditions for most of April through mid June, with a very short period of summer temps.  Would make last summer look hot like 1993 or 1988, and I think we could be on par for blending all the yucky summers 1992/2000/2009.  Do u see the risk of this happening w/ teleconnections.

I believe the warmth will be greater than highs being limited to the middle and upper 30s in the NYC area during the last week of February. The period of moderation looks real and it looks notable compared to the cold that has dominated in general over the last few weeks.

[AvantHiatus]

Don, do you think NYC will get lots of 34-38 degree days finally for 2/20-2/28 range to break the subfreezing streak?  Do you think we can spend 3/1 - 3/15 in the 37-42 degree range for highs most of the time? I do not see above 40-45 degrees consistently for at least until the last week of March. I see most of the next 6 weeks at 5-10 degrees below normal with the Canadian cold spilling frequently down thru 3/15 at least consistently.  If El Nino starts up next month say hello to cold spring and chilly summer.  Almost would lock that in...  1992 summer en route....  I fear we will be dealing with a 4-6 month Greenland Block as the - EPO swaps for a long term -NAO.  I also fear backdoor conditions for most of April through mid June, with a very short period of summer temps.  Would make last summer look hot like 1993 or 1988, and I think we could be on par for blending all the yucky summers 1992/2000/2009.  Do u see the risk of this happening w/ teleconnections.

TBH, 2013 seems about as cold as any summer you will ever observe in the NE these days. It's tough to bank on a persistent -NAO with the pacific pattern we have in place and late winter periods with high positive arctic temperature anomalies usually lead to warmer summers. Spring is still up in the air however, we could see a return to the negative -AO.

 

Models are pointing towards a +AO and +NAO in late feb and this would culminate into a pretty hefty torch if the -EPO ridge breaks down.

[Geos]

12z EURO plot of the EPO. Looks to go sky high.

 

[Harry]

12z EURO plot of the EPO. Looks to go sky high.

 

EPO.jpg

 

And as said in our sub forum the euro people appear to be off.

ftp://ftp.cdc.noaa.gov/Public/gbates/teleconn/epo.reanalysis.t10trunc.1948-present.txt

 

Unless they have ther own way of figuring that out and thus don't use the link i posted?

 

Then there is this..

ftp://ftp.cdc.noaa.gov/Public/gbates/reforecast2/teleconn/4panel.png

 

Something is gonna be wrong. What? I am not sure of.

[Geos]

 

And as said in our sub forum the euro people appear to be off.

ftp://ftp.cdc.noaa.gov/Public/gbates/teleconn/epo.reanalysis.t10trunc.1948-present.txt

 

Unless they have ther own way of figuring that out and thus don't use the link i posted?

 

Then there is this..

ftp://ftp.cdc.noaa.gov/Public/gbates/reforecast2/teleconn/4panel.png

 

Something is gonna be wrong. What? I am not sure of.

 

I was looking at the GFS data and it shows it at neutral right now. Takes the EPO to +4 by the 13th.

GFS showing the PNA at -0.85 today, not -2. Something is wrong and I'm thinking it's that source. -2 would likely mean massive ridge in the eastern US and that's obviously not the case right now.

 

I don't see anything to indicate that Arctic air is coming back into the US next week. To what degree it warms up will be interesting to see. Local met's are now siding with the model data showing this milder period.

[donsutherland1]

Updated table for the January 25-February 15, 2014 period:

 

 

Chicago has now surpassed 60" seasonal snowfall and Detroit has reached 70.0". In addition, light snow this evening should add to seasonal figures in a number of the eastern cities with perhaps Philadelphia and Islip doing best among the cities being tracked.

 

All said, the period has proved snowy. Another opportunity for snow lies ahead later this week.

[donsutherland1]

Morning thoughts...

 

Now that the great "Facebook Blizzard of '14" has departed after depositing a general 1"-3" of powdery snow in parts of the Mid-Atlantic and southern New England areas, including a "paralyzing" 2.7" in Philadelphia, the focus can turn to a genuine winter storm threat for later this week. Several thoughts:

 

1. This will be a subtropical jet steam system, and the ECMWF usually does very well with those systems, including the potential for phasing. Hence, a significant storm will likely develop and then move northward.

 

2. The timing and location of phasing and exact track will be important. But right now, at least a moderate snowfall appears likely across much of the Mid-Atlantic region and into southern New England. The potential exists for Richmond and Washington, DC, which are currently running 2.4" and 2.3" below normal respectively to move above normal. The potential for snow and ice will likely extend farther south, so the Southeast might well experience a meaningful winter weather impact.

 

3. In the longer-range, moderation still appears likely to spread into the East beginning around 2/20 +/- a few days. The closing 7-10 days of February should wind up milder than normal in a large part of the CONUS.

 

4. Out in the Pacific, the easterly trade winds have weakened. That could allow for ENSO Region 3.4, which currently has an anomaly of -0.7°C, to begin to warm. The warming that had occurred in ENSO Region 1+2 argues that there is a risk of an El Niño for next winter. In fact, if one looks at the Region 3.4 anomaly, it should be noted that both 1997 and 2009 had comparable or greater cool anomalies at this point in time. While a 1997-98 super El Niño event appears very unlikely at this point in time, something closer to 2009-10 can't be ruled out. For now, the modeling is still at a very low skill range, including the superior-performing statistical guidance.

[Ginx snewx]

Don do you have some Feb 1899 stats, track?

[donsutherland1]

Don do you have some Feb 1899 stats, track?

 

Several quick items:

 

Surface Weather Maps

 

Article by Paul Kocin et al.

 

Monthly Weather Review Articles on the Cold Wave and Snowstorms

 

A short local account (Patchogue, NY)

 

Some photos: Page 1 and 2

[Ginx snewx]

Several quick items:

Surface Weather Maps

Article by Paul Kocin et al.

Monthly Weather Review Articles on the Cold Wave and Snowstorms

A short local account (Patchogue, NY)

Some photos: Page 1 and 2

Thanks so much

[donsutherland1]

Thanks so much

You're welcome, Ginxy. Hopefully, the 2/13-14 storm will deliver in a big way.

[donsutherland1]

Updated figures for the 1/25-2/15/2014 period:

 

[donsutherland1]

Washington, DC and Richmond Poised for Biggest Snowfall in 4 Years...

 

The computer guidance continues to move into better agreement concerning the upcoming snowstorm. For perspective:

 

Last 6" snowfall:

Richmond: 2/5-6/2010: 6.6"

Washington, DC: 2/9-10/2010: 10.8"

 

Last 10" snowfall:

Richmond: 1/30-31/2010: 10.0"

Washington, DC: 2/9-10/2010: 10.8"

 

Daily Snowfall Records:

 

2/12:

Richmond: 7.5", 1899

Washington, DC: 6.7", 2006

 

2/13:

Richmond: 8.3", 1960

Washington, DC: 4.9", 1960

[MidlothianWX]

Washington, DC and Richmond Poised for Biggest Snowfall in 4 Years...

 

The computer guidance continues to move into better agreement concerning the upcoming snowstorm. For perspective:

 

Last 6" snowfall:

Richmond: 2/5-6/2010: 6.6"

Washington, DC: 2/9-10/2010: 10.8"

 

Last 10" snowfall:

Richmond: 1/30-31/2010: 10.0"

Washington, DC: 2/9-10/2010: 10.8"

 

Daily Snowfall Records:

 

2/12:

Richmond: 7.5", 1899

Washington, DC: 6.7", 2006

 

2/13:

Richmond: 8.3", 1960

Washington, DC: 4.9", 1960

Thanks for the informative post Don. We are looking forward to this one in RIC. We'll be right on the dividing line as usual but all you can do is hope for the best (i.e. a slightly east SLP track).

 

RIC needs 12.6" to break into the top 10 all-time snow events. Sadly, Richmond has not recorded over 11" of snow from one storm since 1983, making the current period a very anomalous one. There is reason to suspect that the airport's actual total in the January 1996 and 2000 events was a foot or greater but there is no true way of verifying this.

[donsutherland1]

Morning thoughts...

 

Perhaps the most disruptive and highest-impact storm of the winter is now impacting the South. Atlanta and Charleston are receiving a significant dose of freezing rain. Snow had commenced falling in Columbia, SC.

 

Farther north ahead of the storm, Boston had a reading of 8°, which was that city's coldest February reading since February 5, 2009 when the temperature fell to 8°. New York City had a low temperature of 13°, its coldest February reading since February 5, 2009 when the mercury fell to 12°. Philadelphia had a low temperature of 12°, its coldest February reading since February 11, 2008 when the temperature reached 11°.

 

Both Detroit and Chicago registered yet another subzero low temperature. Detroit has had 2 such readings this month, the most in February since 2011 when there were also 2. For the winter, that city has had 12 such low temperatures, the most since 1993-94 when there were also 12.

 

Chicago recorded its 7th subzero low of February, the most in February since 2007 when there were 8. For the winter, Chicago has had 18 subzero minimum temperatures. The last winter with at least as many was 1984-85 with 18.

 

Occasionally harsh winters have ended with a significant storm that preceded the breakdown in the predominant pattern. The ensemble guidance has been persistent that moderation lies ahead and will be spreading across the CONUS beginning next week. The last 7-10 days of February could wind up milder than normal in many areas that have seen persistent cold.

 

For now, it is too soon to know whether this moderation will mark the beginning of the end of winter 2013-14 or whether the winter will produce additional cold and snow prior to spring's taking hold.

[donsutherland1]

Parts of the Mid-Atlantic Region have picked up their largest snowfall in 4 years. At Baltimore, snowfall has so far reached 12.3". That is Baltimore's largest snowfall since February 9-10, 2010 when 19.5" fell. Philadelphia has so far received 8.8", bringing that city's seasonal figure to 52.1".

[donsutherland1]

Mid-Day Thoughts...

 

1. The ongoing snowstorm has pushed Philadelphia, New York City, and Islip past 50" for the winter. Baltimore has now surpassed 25", so the 1/25-2/15 period is delivering in a big way on the potential at which the forecast pattern was hinting. Detroit, Islip, New York City, and Newark have all received 20" or more snow during this timeframe.

 

2. The storm may yet deliver another round of very heavy snow as it pushes away from the region this evening and tonight. The 12z GFS brings almost 1" qpf to Poughkeepsie overnight. Exact details still remain to be determined.

 

3. An additional clipper system may blow up as it moves offshore bringing additional accumulations to parts of the Mid-Atlantic and New England areas on Friday night through Saturday night.

 

4. Moderation appears on course afterward. But it remains to be seen whether this moderation is a pause before winter returns for another appearance. The operational GFS turns cold in the extended range, so the return of cold and opportunities for snowfall is very much on the table as February closes/March commences.

[donsutherland1]

Thx Don...by moderation, are you thinking full blown torch? I have a family ski trip planned next weekend into the following week in central Vt and will not drive 400 miles to sit inside in a rainstorm (cutter). 

If there is storminess, next weekend could be warm enough for rain (40s). The latest GFS ensembles showed warm 850 mb readings (~1.5 sigma above normal for a time). That's still a little far out to worry about the possible storminess, but the coming milder weather has been a persistent signal.