Winter 2013-14 medium range discussion

[donsutherland1]

January 2014 ending after Highlight Cold...

 

During January, numerous cities saw their coldest 10-day stretch in almost a decade or longer. In addition, monthly snowfall allowed many cities to build large anomalies above normal snowfall to date. Below is a table that provides related data for select cities:

 

 

Ice-covered Hudson River (Sleepy Hollow, New York)

[Absolute Humidity]

January 2014 ending after Highlight Cold...

 

During January, numerous cities saw their coldest 10-day stretch in almost a decade or longer. In addition, monthly snowfall allowed many cities to build large anomalies above normal snowfall to date. Below is a table that provides related data for select cities:

 

 

Ice-covered Hudson River (Sleepy Hollow, New York)

Pretty amazing stats Don and great picture. It's really been a long time since the east has seen such cold anomalies. I don't think I can ever remember seeing so much snow fall below 15 degrees on numerous occasions, over 28" here at least IMBY this month.

[michsnowfreak]

January 2014 ending after Highlight Cold...

 

During January, numerous cities saw their coldest 10-day stretch in almost a decade or longer. In addition, monthly snowfall allowed many cities to build large anomalies above normal snowfall to date. Below is a table that provides related data for select cities:

 

 

Ice-covered Hudson River (Sleepy Hollow, New York)

Nice pic.

 

While the 10-day coldsnap was impressive, January as a whole finished 6th coldest on record at Detroit (11th coldest of any month), and with 10 days below zero, only two months on record (Feb 1875 & Jan 1977) saw more subzero days. Of course, all this played second fiddle to the snow, becoming the snowiest January & month on record with 39.1". Toledo, OH also saw their snowiest all-time month with 40.2", and Chicago their 3rd snowiest month all-time (33.7"). February is starting where January left off, and DTW may very well be at 60" on the season by nightfall, with winter just half over

[Ottawa Blizzard]

Toronto Pearson saw the seventh coldest January since 1980 and tied with January 1963 and 1978 for the 13th coldest since 1938.

[donsutherland1]

Evening thoughts...

 

1. The idea that the January 25-February 15 period would likely see above normal snowfall in the areas that have already received it and perhaps a wider area continues to look reasonable.

 

2. With today's snowfall, Detroit has reached 59.3" for the season. Snowfall totals to date include 33.5" at Boston, 28.3" at New York City, and 33.5" at Boston.

 

3. Two storms (Monday and Wednesday) should add to those accumulations, even as the snow may yield to a soaking rain in the Mid-Atlantic and possibly southern New England areas. By the end of Wednesday at the latest, Boston and Philadelphia will likely have surpassed 40" seasonal snowfall, New York City will likely have reached or exceeded 30", and Detroit should be above 60".

[donsutherland1]

Nice pic.

 

While the 10-day coldsnap was impressive, January as a whole finished 6th coldest on record at Detroit (11th coldest of any month), and with 10 days below zero, only two months on record (Feb 1875 & Jan 1977) saw more subzero days. Of course, all this played second fiddle to the snow, becoming the snowiest January & month on record with 39.1". Toledo, OH also saw their snowiest all-time month with 40.2", and Chicago their 3rd snowiest month all-time (33.7"). February is starting where January left off, and DTW may very well be at 60" on the season by nightfall, with winter just half over

Thanks for this information Josh and thanks to Ottawa Blizzard for Toronto's information. Winter 2013-14 is becoming a memorable winter in some areas and it will be interesting to see how February turns out.

[donsutherland1]

Pretty amazing stats Don and great picture. It's really been a long time since the east has seen such cold anomalies. I don't think I can ever remember seeing so much snow fall below 15 degrees on numerous occasions, over 28" here at least IMBY this month.

Thanks Absolute Humidity. Even as the severe cold has abated for now, more snow lies ahead. Parts of NJ have done quite well so far and look to do well again on Monday.

[Chicago WX]

Fort Wayne, Indiana had their snowiest January and month on record, with 30.3".

 

Indianapolis finished with their second snowiest January on record with 26.9"...and fourth snowiest month overall.

[odwalla]

If the 00Z EURO and GFS from 2/2 pan out, NYC will be above 50" within ten days, and the season could possibly make a run at 60"+, which is quite rare.

[donsutherland1]

Morning thoughts...

 

1. After yesterday's snowfall of 3.8", Chicago's seasonal total has reached 52.6". Detroit's 4.1" snowfall brought its seasonal figure to 59.9".

 

2. I have little change in my thinking. By the end of Wednesday at the latest, Boston and Philadelphia will likely have surpassed 40" seasonal snowfall, New York City will likely have reached or exceeded 30", and Detroit should be above 60".

 

3. Monday's system should focus its heaviest snows across eastern Pennsylvania and central and perhaps northern New Jersey. While this event will likely not be a blockbuster, a solid 4"-8" accumulation with locally higher amounts appears possible in the area cited.

 

4. Wednesday's storm should have more moisture. However, it currently appears that the focus of heaviest snow from that storm will cover southeast New York (north of NYC and its nearby suburbs) across parts of southern and central New England (away from the coast). The storm is sufficiently in the future that details could change somewhat.

 

5. In the long-range, there are hints that an EPO+ pattern could be unfolding as the EPO ridge retrogrades well away from where it has resided most of the winter. If so, the last 7-10 days of February might wind up on the mild side for much of the CONUS except perhaps the northern tier. Much of Canada could remain cold. Right now, that's far enough into the future that there remains substantial uncertainty, but the possibility is noted as it has been a recurrent theme on some of the recent guidance.

[NavarreDon]

Per GSP: Asheville had the 8th coldest January on record with avg temp 30.6. Coldest Jan 1977 with 24.8.

 

A personal note....in the 11 years I have lived @ my current location January 2014 provided the three coldest morning lows. (-2.3, -2.2, & 0.1)

[donsutherland1]

Morning Thoughts: The January 25-February 15 Period Continues to Deliver...

 

Back on January 13, the teleconnection cases and GFS objective analogs were highlighting the potential for above normal snowfall during the January 25-February 15 timeframe. At that time, I had noted in #541:

 

The second aspect is that the pattern appears increasingly likely to become snowier from the Great Lakes region eastward to the northern Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas. Both among the teleconnection cases and GFS ensemble's objective analogs in recent days, one finds a number of dates that were fairly close to moderate or sizable snowfalls. Those dates have included late January 1961, late January 2003, and just after mid-January 2005. In short, it increasingly appears that the pattern evolution should result in the above-noted areas seeing above normal snowfall for the January 25 through February 15 period.

 

Through February 2, snowfall beginning on January 25 was as follows for select cities:

 

Boston: 0.1"

Chicago: 6.8"

Detroit: 13.7"

New York City: 1.8"

Philadelphia: 3.4"

 

Today, a snowstorm is blanketing parts of the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas. If one examines the daily snowfall records for select cities, one finds a number of dates from 1961 (one of the teleconnection and objective analog cases):

 

 

With today's snowfall, New York City should easily reach 30" seasonal snowfall. Philadelphia should reach 40". More storms with at least some accumulations of snow lie ahead. A candidate for the biggest storm might exist in the February 8-10 timeframe, but details will need to be worked out. The potential exists and it has been signaled on the ensembles for some time. A number of winters that featured severe cold have culminated with a blockbuster snowstorm, so historic climatology may lend some degree of support to the ensembles. Of course, there are no guarantees, but at least potential is on the table.

 

Overall, by the time the January 25-February 15 period is finished, it would not surprise me if Philadelphia were well above 40" seasonal snowfall, New York City was near or above 40", and Boston was near or perhaps even above 50" seasonal snowfall.  The potential also exists that meaningful snows could make it to Baltimore and Washington, D.C., too.

 

If so, this winter will provide another example where winter tipped its proverbial hand in December when Boston, New York City, and Philadelphia all received 8" or more snowfall for the month and confirmation with an early January snowfall. The seasonal snowfall for those cities following such cases is below:

 

 

All in all, what promises to be a fun period for winter weather lovers continues to unfold in wintry fashion.

[DaculaWeather]

Don, I know it's relatively easy to predict snow and winter weather for the north, but what are your thoughts for the system next weekend for the south (I'm in Atlanta...)? The models seem to be hinting at the potential for something significant, but exactly where is the question. I'd like to keep people aware and alert to the possibilities, and there is a lot of talk and speculation, and probably misinformation, going around about that period down here.

 

Thanks for all your insight!

[donsutherland1]

Don, I know it's relatively easy to predict snow and winter weather for the north, but what are your thoughts for the system next weekend for the south (I'm in Atlanta...)? The models seem to be hinting at the potential for something significant, but exactly where is the question. I'd like to keep people aware and alert to the possibilities, and there is a lot of talk and speculation, and probably misinformation, going around about that period down here.

 

Thanks for all your insight!

It's still a tough call on that system this far out. Even up here where there has been ensemble support for a potential large-scale event, it's too soon to have much confidence. My biggest worry for down south is that the southeast ridge might be a bit too strong to allow for a significant winter impact, but that's sufficiently far out that the details could change quite a bit.

[donsutherland1]

Evening thoughts...

 

1. The pattern is king so to speak. Much of what was written in #541 from back on January 13 and #626 holds: the January 25-February 15 period should see above normal snowfall in the areas that have already seen it. The potential also exists that Washington and Baltimore could join the snowfall harvest.

 

2. The period has already been productive in terms of snowfall in Chicago, Detroit, Philadelphia, and New York, but not yet for Boston. That will change tomorrow night into Wednesday morning.

 

3. In the extended range, one should not latch onto the details or precise qpf amounts. Both are subject to change. What is important is that the guidance continues to insist on one or two moderate or big qpf events beyond tomorrow night's storm. Each of those events has the potential to produce snowfall, even if there is some liquid precipitation involved.

 

4. With a lot of cold air retaining its grip over Canada, the possibility of one more bout of severe cold e.g., the kind of air mass that could send temperatures back into the single digits in such cities as New York and Baltimore and below zero in Chicago and Detroit remains on the table.

 

5. There continue to be hints that the EPO could go positive down the road leading to a period of moderation, perhaps over the last 7-10 days of February, but uncertainty persists. Whether or not that outcome, if it materializes, would be temporary remains to be seen.

[Ottawa Blizzard]

Evening thoughts...

 

1. The pattern is king so to speak. Much of what was written in #541 from back on January 13 and #626 holds: the January 25-February 15 period should see above normal snowfall in the areas that have already seen it. The potential also exists that Washington and Baltimore could join the snowfall harvest.

 

2. The period has already been productive in terms of snowfall in Chicago, Detroit, Philadelphia, and New York, but not yet for Boston. That will change tomorrow night into Wednesday morning.

 

3. In the extended range, one should not latch onto the details or precise qpf amounts. Both are subject to change. What is important is that the guidance continues to insist on one or two moderate or big qpf events beyond tomorrow night's storm. Each of those events has the potential to produce snowfall, even if there is some liquid precipitation involved.

 

4. With a lot of cold air retaining its grip over Canada, the possibility of one more bout of severe cold e.g., the kind of air mass that could send temperatures back into the single digits in such cities as New York and Baltimore and below zero in Chicago and Detroit remains on the table.

 

5. There continue to be hints that the EPO could go positive down the road leading to a period of moderation, perhaps over the last 7-10 days of February, but uncertainty persists. Whether or not that outcome, if it materializes, would be temporary remains to be seen.

This is good to hear Don. I wouldn't mind having Toronto Pearson airport touch minus 20 Celsius (minus 4 Fahrenheit ) one last time this winter to help bring our mean temperature down. I know we're not going to match the Februaries of 1978 and 1979 for cold, but I would like to see Toronto end the month below normal temperature-wise just so we can say that every month between November and February averaged colder than normal. haven't seen that in awhile!

[wildweatherman179]

I would like and hope for it to be temporary. Would be awesome for it to let that last southern plains snowstorm through come early march. Would make this season one of the best in years around here.

[mempho]

Don,

Why is the TN Valley getting almost continual cold but with no snow? Memphis just finished with the coldest January since 1985 and no snow. Nashville is holding about the same.

Modeling continues to go from consensus snow to no snow in about the 4 day range. The models have just been awful locally. A lot of huge misses even within 24 hours have been occurring.

So, while we are having our struggles, a lot of our most experienced people are really struggling to assess what's actually going on.

Sent from my SCH-L710 using Tapatalk

[donsutherland1]

Morning thoughts...

 

1. The January 25-February 15 period is proving snowy for the areas that have received above average snowfall this winter, with Boston so far having the least snowfall during this period. The storm tonight into tomorrow should provide at least several inches of snow there and the possibility of 6" or more exists. Here's how the aforementioned timeframe has worked out so far:

 

 

2. For some time, the ensemble and model guidance has been signaling the possibility of a potential large-scale event along the East Coast for the 2/9-10 timeframe. Details have differed on a run-to-run basis as should be expected from this far out.

 

3. With respect to KU-type potential, most February KU storms have occurred when the Arctic Oscillation (AO) has been negative. The latest guidance indicates that the AO will likely go negative prior to and during the 2/9-10 timeframe.

 

 

4. Out in the Plains States, St. Louis has so far picked up 21.5" snowfall for the winter. I still believe that odds favor seasonal snowfall reaching 30" before the winter is finished.

[donsutherland1]

Don,

Why is the TN Valley getting almost continual cold but with no snow? Memphis just finished with the coldest January since 1985 and no snow. Nashville is holding about the same.

Modeling continues to go from consensus snow to no snow in about the 4 day range. The models have just been awful locally. A lot of huge misses even within 24 hours have been occurring.

So, while we are having our struggles, a lot of our most experienced people are really struggling to assess what's actually going on.

Sent from my SCH-L710

To date, it appears that when the cold was available, the storm track was not favorable and/or there were no storms. Right now, at least through the next week or so, things don't look any better. Hopefully, afterward there will be some opportunities for snowfall in the Nashville area.

[donsutherland1]

Morning update on the 1/25-2/15 Period...

 

 

Highlights:

1. Detroit reached 60" seasonal snowfall for the first time since winter 2010-11.

2. New York City reached 40" seasonal snowfall for the first time since winter 2010-11.

3. Newark reached 40" seasonal snowfall for the first time since winter 2010-11.

[donsutherland1]

Late morning thoughts...

 

1. The pattern continues to deliver in terms of snowfall for the areas that have seen above normal snowfall (Midwest to the northern Mid-Atlantic/southern New England). That is likely to continue to be the case for the remainder of the period through 2/15. There remains the possibility of a large-scale storm prior to the breakdown of the current pattern.

 

2. Guidance continues to hint that the closing 7-10 days of February could see a more zonal flow develop, leading to a milder regime across much of the CONUS. If so, the 2/16-22 timeframe could witness the development of milder weather during the latter part of that timeframe.

 

3. With wavelengths shortening as the calendar advances toward spring, the potential exists that renewed troughing could try to develop in eastern North America afterward. But that's way out and a lot can change.

[donsutherland1]

Today, Detroit picked up another 7.6" snow. That brought the seasonal figure to 67.9", which is 7th highest on record. The last winter with more snow was 2010-11 when 69.1" fell.

 

Chicago picked up 5.7" snow bringing its seasonal figure to 59.6". That is the highest figure there since 2007-08 when 60.3" fell. It is also the 8th highest on record.

[Mikehobbyst]

Late morning thoughts...

 

1. The pattern continues to deliver in terms of snowfall for the areas that have seen above normal snowfall (Midwest to the northern Mid-Atlantic/southern New England). That is likely to continue to be the case for the remainder of the period through 2/15. There remains the possibility of a large-scale storm prior to the breakdown of the current pattern.

 

2. Guidance continues to hint that the closing 7-10 days of February could see a more zonal flow develop, leading to a milder regime across much of the CONUS. If so, the 2/16-22 timeframe could witness the development of milder weather during the latter part of that timeframe.

 

3. With wavelengths shortening as the calendar advances toward spring, the potential exists that renewed troughing could try to develop in eastern North America afterward. But that's way out and a lot can change.

Don, do you think we are going to have a very cold spring this year in the NYC area with much delayed green up and snow pack melt out. The QBO state really increases the chance for Greenland and Davis Straight blocking to get established and hold for a very long time. Didn't we have some Strat warming showing up as well ?That says cold weather in March and till mid April seems the wise way to hedge. May and June probably will be very backdoorish with very chilly near shore Northeastern ocean waters. I bet May into early June is a fog fest this year and comes in with 48/48 and 50/50 degree over dewpoint days for LI and New England.  I think we challenge the cool summers of 1992/2000 and 2009 this year with a recent cool monthly cycle we seem to got ourselves into and with exceptionally chilly waters to contend with this year.  I think we only get to 60-65 degree surf temps this summer south of LI, so it could be chilly summer on the coast. I think the cold spring will be the start of a chilly summer this year... Feeling a 1992 or 2000 summer.... Do not see much chance of this being a hot summer..... I don't see a positive temperature month coming up anytime soon.  Wonder if we get to challenge last March very cold pattern, and if winter snowy landscapes hold on till May 20th north of 45 degrees north. Closer to April 15th for 40 degrees north.  I see trees and forsynthia opening 2-3 weeks late....

[donsutherland1]

Don, do you think we are going to have a very cold spring this year in the NYC area with much delayed green up and snow pack melt out. The QBO state really increases the chance for Greenland and Davis Straight blocking to get established and hold for a very long time. Didn't we have some Strat warming showing up as well ?That says cold weather in March and till mid April seems the wise way to hedge. May and June probably will be very backdoorish with very chilly near shore Northeastern ocean waters. I bet May into early June is a fog fest this year and comes in with 48/48 and 50/50 degree over dewpoint days for LI and New England.  I think we challenge the cool summers of 1992/2000 and 2009 this year with a recent cool monthly cycle we seem to got ourselves into and with exceptionally chilly waters to contend with this year.  I think we only get to 60-65 degree surf temps this summer south of LI, so it could be chilly summer on the coast. I think the cold spring will be the start of a chilly summer this year... Feeling a 1992 or 2000 summer.... Do not see much chance of this being a hot summer..... I don't see a positive temperature month coming up anytime soon.  Wonder if we get to challenge last March very cold pattern, and if winter snowy landscapes hold on till May 20th north of 45 degrees north. Closer to April 15th for 40 degrees north.  I see trees and forsynthia opening 2-3 weeks late....

It's too soon to know for sure how the spring will turn out. A lot will depend on the evoution of ENSO as the wavelengths shorten.

[Whitelakeroy]

Today, Detroit picked up another 7.6" snow. That brought the seasonal figure to 67.9", which is 4th highest on record. The record is 74.0", which was set in 1981-82. The last winter with more snow was 2010-11 when 69.1" fell.

 

Chicago picked up 5.7" snow bringing its seasonal figure to 59.6". That is the highest figure there since 2007-08 when 60.3" fell. It is also the 8th highest on record.

Hello Don.   Your posts are just awesome.  I look forward to them. Thanks.

 

I am not sure where you got those record numbers in Detroit.

 

Here is a good link from DTX about the current status of the records for DTW and FNT :

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/news/display_cmsstory.php?wfo=dtx&storyid=100198&source=0

 

This has the DTW record at 93.6" (1880-81).   Currently ranked 7th.

 

Here are top 20 Snowfall Seasons there:

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/dtx/display_climate.php?file=snowseas.htm

[donsutherland1]

February 16-22, 2014 Thoughts...

 

Following what has already distinguished itself as a snowy period from St. Louis eastward to Philadelphia and Boston, the period will likely start cold. The potential for additional snow could exist. By that time, Boston will likely have 50" or more seasonal snowfall and Detroit will likely be near or above 70" seasonal snowfall. However, there remain persistent hints on some of the guidance that moderation could try to unfold during the latter part of the period and perhaps persist through the closing 7-10 days of February, perhaps as the pattern then reloads for the first half of March.

 

Below are temperature anomalies from the teleconnection cases having a reasonable match to the last 30 days, as well as the GFS ensembles centered on 2/20 0z:

 

 

Areas in which there are agreement are the Southwest, western Canada, and much of the East. The area of big disagreement concerns the placement of warmth around the Hudson Bay/James Bay (GFS ensembles) and the larger expanse of warmth across eastern Canada and New England (teleconnection cases).

 

Given the combination of persistence and larger set of teleconnection cases, I believe the warmth shown on the smaller set of teleconnection cases is probably overdone.

 

My thoughts are as follows:

 

Western half of the CONUS, including Southwest and Plains States: Warmer than normal and much warmer than normal in the Southwest

 

Pacific Northwest: Somewhat below normal to near normal

 

Canada (except for the Hudson Bay/James Bay region and northwestern Ontario and northwestern Quebec): Colder than normal; the exceptions will likely be warmer than normal

 

Eastern half of the CONUS except for the Southeast and Gulf Coast: Colder than normal

 

Gulf Coast and Southeast: Warmer than normal

 

It should be noted that milder air will likely spread into the East toward the end of the period. The above anomalies are for the period as a whole.

 

Finally, among the teleconnection cases was 2/19/1979, which coincided with the President's Day snowstorm. When one looks at February, the breakdown of teleconnections for KU snowstorms since 1950 is:

 

AO-/PNA-: 28% (example: 2/17-19/1979) -- Accounted for 80% of KU snowstorms after 2/15

AO-/PNA+: 50% (example: 2/15-18/2003)

AO+/PNA-: 11% (example 2/10-12/1994)

AO+/PNA+: 11% (example 2/2-5/1961)

 

78% of February KU snowstorms commenced when the AO was negative

 

Some ensemble members hint at a period of AO- approaching and into the start of the 2/16-22 period. So while nothing is assured, that might be a time to watch for the possible larger storm, especially as the current snowy pattern nears and end and perhaps into the start of the 2/16-22 timeframe. Finally, after mid-month, the AO-/PNA- combination becomes the more favorable one for KU snowstorms as the wavelengths are starting to shorten.

[donsutherland1]

Hello Don.   Your posts are just awesome.  I look forward to them. Thanks.

 

I am not sure where you got those record numbers in Detroit.

 

Here is a good link from DTX about the current status of the records for DTW and FNT :

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/news/display_cmsstory.php?wfo=dtx&storyid=100198&source=0

 

This has the DTW record at 93.6" (1880-81).   Currently ranked 7th.

 

Here are top 20 Snowfall Seasons there:

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/dtx/display_climate.php?file=snowseas.htm

 

Thanks, both for the kind words, and link. I didn't have data prior to 1930. I've bookmarked the link and fixed the message.

[Kevin Druff]

Don -- I'm not sure if you have seen this from Bill Nichols in the NWS DVN discussion (http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=DVN&issuedby=DVN&product=AFD&format=CI&version=4&glossary=1)...%C2'>

 

 

 

MAJOR REGIME CHANGE STARTING DAYS 5 INTO DAY 10 NORMALLY SUGGEST MAJOR CHANGES IN SOLUTIONS AND PREDICTABILITY NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS CHANGE WILL RESULT IN MUCH WETTER CONDITIONS ALONG WEST COAST WITH MILDER TEMPERATURES AT/BEYOND DAY 10 FOR CENTRAL US. THE MAGNITUDE OF ENERGY CHANGES IN THE PACIFIC ARE AMONG THE HIGHEST I HAVE SEEN OVER A 5 DAY PERIOD USING MULTIPLE SOURCES IN 35 YEARS OF ANALYSIS. THE MEANING...THIS WILL NOT BE A MINOR CHANGE AND SHOULD RESULT IN MAJOR TEMP/MOISTURE CHANGES LASTING MANY WEEKS AND QUITE POSSIBLY MONTHS. TELECONNECTION WEIGHTING SUPPORTS MAY RESULT IN AN ACTIVE SPRING...MUCH MORE TYPICAL THAN WHAT HAPPENED LAST YEAR WHICH THIS AUTHOR CORRECTLY ASSESSED WOULD HAPPEN LAST WINTER. THERE MAY BE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN KEY INDICES USED IN TELECONNECTION TECHNIQUES NEXT SEVERAL WEEKS DUE TO THIS REGIME CHANGE. THIS WILL BE QUITE EDUCATIONAL TO MONITOR. THE REGIME WE ARE ON A TRAJECTORY FOR...FAVORABLY SUPPORTS HIGHS IN THE 50S AND POSSIBLY 60S AT TIMES BY LATE IN THE MONTH...QUITE A CHANGE FROM PAST 2 MONTHS. THE WEST COAST AND INTER-MOUNTAIN REGION WILL SEE IMPRESSIVE RAIN TOTALS FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT FEW WEEKS. THIS MAY CONTINUE BASED ON ANALOGS AND STATISTICAL WEIGHTING IN TELECONNECTIONS LOCALLY USED BY THIS AUTHOR...FOR MUCH OF THE EARLY TO MID SPRING...POSITIVE IMPACTS TO WESTERN DROUGHT...HIGH PW/S WOULD SUPPORT FLOODING RISKS THOUGH.

 

I was wondering your reactions to his long-range thoughts...

[wildweatherman179]

Sounds like a very active severe storm season is on the way after mid March probably.