Winter 2013-14 medium range discussion

[Ginx snewx]

amazing 40-50 degree anomaly at the coldest climo time of year

 

[Srain]

Don, while those of us along the NW Gulf will escape the brunt of this Arctic intrusion we are certainly no out of the woods for a classic NW Gulf Coast Winter Weather Event. The 00Z Euro and GFS are in better agreement that a strong short wave dropping S from British Columbia will tap into a piece of the cold Arctic air and allow a 1040mb Arctic high to settle across Texas and extend ENE. The Arctic boundary appears to stall along Coastal Texas/Louisiana as a Coastal trough forms allowing over running conditions to develop Thursday afternoon after the cold air at the surface is in place. Past experience suggests this is a solution that tends to favor a freezing rain/sleet event that may extend as far S as Metro Houston, Beaumont and Lake Charles. The MOS guidance has trended colder with each run and it is not out of the question that Winter Weather Advisories or even Winter Storm Watches may be needed along portions of the I-10 Corridor for Thursday and possibly extending in Saturday if the guidance does indeed verify.

For verification purposes, Winter Storm Warning continues until 12:00 noon for all of HGX forecast area and southern half of LCH forecast area. Moderate sleet and snow in NW Harris County. All bridges/overpasses and flyovers quickly icing over. I-10 West bound from Houston completely iced over in Fayette County. Numerous vehicles trapped on flyovers across Metro Houston. Sleet/freezing rain mix in Webster, SE of DT Houston near NASA.

[donsutherland1]

For verification purposes, Winter Storm Warning continues until 12:00 noon for all of HGX forecast area and southern half of LCH forecast area. Moderate sleet and snow in NW Harris County. All bridges/overpasses and flyovers quickly icing over. I-10 West bound from Houston completely iced over in Fayette County. Numerous vehicles trapped on flyovers across Metro Houston. Sleet/freezing rain mix in Webster, SE of DT Houston near NASA.

Early next week should see some severe cold in the Gulf States region, including parts of Texas. I'll post more on that this afternoon.

[donsutherland1]

Morning Thoughts...

 

1. The GFS ensembles now show temperatures falling 3 or more standard deviations below normal across parts of southern U.S. running from Texas to Georgia for the January 28-29 timeframe. More on that will be posted this afternoon.

 

2. To date, cities such as Chicago, Detroit, Indianapolis, Philadelphia, New York, and Boston have seen above normal snowfall. January snowfall has been excessive in Chicago (30.3", 4th highest January figure) Detroit (29.2", 2nd highest January figure and just 0.4" short of the monthly mark from 1978), Indianapolis (24.9", 3rd highest January figure), and Philadelphia 22.5" (5th highest January figure).

 

3. To date, winter 2013-14 has featured the most severe cold in at least a decade in many major Midwestern and Eastern cities and, in cases, longer. For example, Baltimore has had 8 single-digit low temperatures, it most since 1993-94 when that city also had 8.

 

Going forward, next week will feature additional severe cold (point #1). Some of the long-range guidance also hints at opportunities for severe cold in February with perhaps the 1/24 6z GFS showing among the most extreme solutions.

 

The operative question concerns how will this severe cold end? Going back to a number of winters that featured severe cold for an extended period or frequent bouts of severe cold, there are three major scenarios:

 

1. A significant snowfall near or after the worst of the cold.

2. Frequent light to moderate snowfalls following the worst of the cold.

3. A relative quiet ending with some late-season snows or a late-season cold shot.

 

Below is a table for select cases:

 

[donsutherland1]

1/28-30/2014 Arctic Blast in the South:

 

As had been noted in Message #604, the GFS ensembles showed temperatures falling 3 or more standard deviations below normal across parts of southern U.S. running from Texas to Georgia for the January 28-29 timeframe. It should be noted that the 12z runs of the operational GFS and ECMWF are somewhat more restrained. Therefore, cold temperatures in the 1.5-2.0 standard deviation range might be more likely than those in the 2.5-3.0 standard deviation range.

 

Below are the GFS ensemble mean 850 mb forecast and also high and low temperatures that correspond with the standardized anomalies. The last chart shows the lowest minimum and maximum temperatures reached so far this winter.

 

[RCNYILWX]

Don, any thoughts on the EPO flipping to positive on the ESRL ensembles after 2/4? My initial thoughts are that's not supported by other ensembles and weeklies, and that persistence is the way to go with the -EPO. Previous runs just a few days ago had shown the EPO trending even deeper negative in early Feb, so it hasn't been all that consistent it seems.

Also, Mike Ventrice had a great post about Feb on his WSI blog here:

http://www.wsi.com/blog/energy/sub-seasonal-u-s-temperature-outlook-bitter-cold-weather-is-anticipated-to-continue-through-the-end-of-february/

Sent from my SCH-I535 using Tapatalk

[wxmx]

Agree Don, this will probably become the strongest cold shot for the South...and the GEFS is on the warm side of the multi-model ensemble. If a shortwave disturbance can develop at the base of the trough as some models are hinting, then even a rare widespread wintry precip event could unfold.

[donsutherland1]

Don, any thoughts on the EPO flipping to positive on the ESRL ensembles after 2/4? My initial thoughts are that's not supported by other ensembles and weeklies, and that persistence is the way to go with the -EPO. Previous runs just a few days ago had shown the EPO trending even deeper negative in early Feb, so it hasn't been all that consistent it seems.

Also, Mike Ventrice had a great post about Feb on his WSI blog here:

http://www.wsi.com/blog/energy/sub-seasonal-u-s-temperature-outlook-bitter-cold-weather-is-anticipated-to-continue-through-the-end-of-february/

Sent from my SCH-I535

Right now, I'm skeptical about that forecast. This is the first run to show such a shift. It is radically different from earlier runs, including yesterday's. This run seems to be all on its own. Until there is more support for this idea and it has been sustained for some time in the guidance, I am not convinced about this run.

 

Also, thanks for the link to Mike Ventrice's blog entry. It's a terrific piece.

[usedtobe]

Don, any thoughts on the EPO flipping to positive on the ESRL ensembles after 2/4? My initial thoughts are that's not supported by other ensembles and weeklies, and that persistence is the way to go with the -EPO. Previous runs just a few days ago had shown the EPO trending even deeper negative in early Feb, so it hasn't been all that consistent it seems.

Also, Mike Ventrice had a great post about Feb on his WSI blog here:

http://www.wsi.com/blog/energy/sub-seasonal-u-s-temperature-outlook-bitter-cold-weather-is-anticipated-to-continue-through-the-end-of-february/

Sent from my SCH-I535

I think the esrl ensembles are a lower resolution version than either the GEFS or Euro.  At least it was back when I retired.  I'm with DOn, right now I'd lean towards the other ens guidance.

[RCNYILWX]

Don, any thoughts on the EPO flipping to positive on the ESRL ensembles after 2/4? My initial thoughts are that's not supported by other ensembles and weeklies, and that persistence is the way to go with the -EPO. Previous runs just a few days ago had shown the EPO trending even deeper negative in early Feb, so it hasn't been all that consistent it seems.

Also, Mike Ventrice had a great post about Feb on his WSI blog here:http://www.wsi.com/blog/energy/sub-seasonal-u-s-temperature-outlook-bitter-cold-weather-is-anticipated-to-continue-through-the-end-of-february/

Sent from my SCH-I535

I think the esrl ensembles are a lower resolution version than either the GEFS or Euro.  At least it was back when I retired.  I'm with DOn, right now I'd lean towards the other ens guidance.

Especially with the Euro ensembles having an extreme -EPO and one of the coldest CONUS looks you'll see on D13-D15 according to the New England pattern discussion thread. I'm on the same page with you and Don, the way to go is the other ens guidance and I'd expect the ESRL to flip back to a -EPO. The only meaningful +EPO of the winter, which came after the early January extreme cold, had broad ensemble support leading up to it.

[mempho]

It's amazing how cold it's been down here with zero snow cover. We would really be breaking records with snow cover.

Sent from my SCH-L710 using Tapatalk

[donsutherland1]

Some morning thoughts...

 

1. With this morning's light snowfall, it appears that Detroit has set a new January snowfall record.

2. Given the forecast teleconnections (EPO-/AO-), there is no need right now to panic about the sudden turn to warmer conditions on the extended range GFS. Some moderation, but not sustained warmth appears more likely. I have no changes in my thinking that the Midwest to the northern Mid-Atlantic/southern New England areas will see above average snowfall for the 1/25-2/15 timeframe.

3. Odds continue to favor a lot of cold in Canada and the CONUS for February.

[Ottawa Blizzard]

Some morning thoughts...

 

1. With this morning's light snowfall, it appears that Detroit has set a new January snowfall record.

2. Given the forecast teleconnections (EPO-/AO-), there is no need right now to panic about the sudden turn to warmer conditions on the extended range GFS. Some moderation, but not sustained warmth appears more likely. I have no changes in my thinking that the Midwest to the northern Mid-Atlantic/southern New England areas will see above average snowfall for the 1/25-2/15 timeframe.

3. Odds continue to favor a lot of cold in Canada and the CONUS for February.

Don, did you hear that Buffalo looks set to have November, December and January all average below normal for the first time since 1976-1977? That's pretty amazing. Would be nice if February ended up below normal too as that would be quite the record given, February 1977 averaged out warm I believe.

[donsutherland1]

Don, did you hear that Buffalo looks set to have November, December and January all average below normal for the first time since 1976-1977? That's pretty amazing. Would be nice if February ended up below normal too as that would be quite the record given, February 1977 averaged out warm I believe.

That's quite amazing. Buffalo's snowfall is also running well above average at this point. Buffalo is in the zone of heavy snowfall. I had accidentally suggested otherwise.

[michsnowfreak]

Some morning thoughts...

 

1. With this morning's light snowfall, it appears that Detroit has set a new January snowfall record.

2. Given the forecast teleconnections (EPO-/AO-), there is no need right now to panic about the sudden turn to warmer conditions on the extended range GFS. Some moderation, but not sustained warmth appears more likely. I have no changes in my thinking that the Midwest to the northern Mid-Atlantic/southern New England areas will see above average snowfall for the 1/25-2/15 timeframe.

3. Odds continue to favor a lot of cold in Canada and the CONUS for February.

Detroit picked up 2.4" of snow today, which brings the monthly total to 31.9". It is now the snowiest January on record and the 3rd snowiest month on record, behind only Feb 1908 (38.4") and Dec 1974 (34.9"). Toledo, OH is also sitting at 36.4" on the month, which smashed not only their snowiest January but also their snowiest month on record (previous record 30.8" in Jan 1978). Both cities have snow in the forecast tomorrow morning as another clipper moves in.

 

In addition to the record snow, this should crack the top 5 coldest Januaries on record for Detroit. What a winter!

[Ottawa Blizzard]

Detroit picked up 2.4" of snow today, which brings the monthly total to 31.9". It is now the snowiest January on record and the 3rd snowiest month on record, behind only Feb 1908 (38.4") and Dec 1974 (34.9"). Toledo, OH is also sitting at 36.4" on the month, which smashed not only their snowiest January but also their snowiest month on record (previous record 30.8" in Jan 1978). Both cities have snow in the forecast tomorrow morning as another clipper moves in.

 

In addition to the record snow, this should crack the top 5 coldest Januaries on record for Detroit. What a winter!

That's quite impressive when you consider that, in terms of cold, Toronto is nowhere close to the coldest January. Since 1938, the coldest Januaries at Toronto airport are:

 

1) 1994 

2) 1945  

3) 1977 

4) 1970 

5) 1982

6) 1976,1981 (tie)

7) 1984, 1948 (tie)

8) 2004

9)1971

10) 1968, 2009 (tie)

[Jonger]

Detroit picked up 2.4" of snow today, which brings the monthly total to 31.9". It is now the snowiest January on record and the 3rd snowiest month on record, behind only Feb 1908 (38.4") and Dec 1974 (34.9"). Toledo, OH is also sitting at 36.4" on the month, which smashed not only their snowiest January but also their snowiest month on record (previous record 30.8" in Jan 1978). Both cities have snow in the forecast tomorrow morning as another clipper moves in.

In addition to the record snow, this should crack the top 5 coldest Januaries on record for Detroit. What a winter!

The record is growing by the minute too.... Should add a min of 3 inches onto the tally and there is another threat on the last day of the month to really add to it.

[donsutherland1]

Morning thoughts...

 

1. The ensemble guidance continues to point to an EPO-/AO- pattern for the extended range.

 

2. The pattern will very likely feature a relaxation of cold near or at the end of January into the beginning of February. The first week of February should still wind up colder than normal in much of the eastern half of the CONUS. This relaxation does not mean that winter is over, much less that February will be warmer than normal.

 

3. Snowfall for such cities as Chicago, Detroit, Philadelphia, New York, and Boston still looks to be above average for the January 25-February 15 period.

[Ottawa Blizzard]

Morning thoughts...

 

1. The ensemble guidance continues to point to an EPO-/AO- pattern for the extended range.

 

2. The pattern will very likely feature a relaxation of cold near or at the end of January into the beginning of February. The first week of February should still wind up colder than normal in much of the eastern half of the CONUS. This relaxation does not mean that winter is over, much less that February will be warmer than normal.

 

3. Snowfall for such cities as Chicago, Detroit, Philadelphia, New York, and Boston still looks to be above average for the January 25-February 15 period.

Don, what are your thoughts for Toronto? Do you think Toronto should get into more of the snow action in February?

[donsutherland1]

Don, what are your thoughts for Toronto? Do you think Toronto should get into more of the snow action in February?

My thinking is that at least through the first half of the month, Toronto will probably see numerous small to occasionally moderate events. I'm not yet sure about the second half of the month. 

[donsutherland1]

February 2014 Thoughts...

 

Recent weeks have seen a rather dramatic cooling in ENSO Region 3.4. This is one signal of a cooler than normal February across the eastern half of the CONUS. Winters that preceded the development of an El Niño that had a January-March ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly of > 0°C typically featured a lot of warmth in February (1957 and 2002). Those that had an anomaly of < 0° often featured a lot of cool anomalies in February (1965 and 1968).

 

At the same time, the strong positive SSTAs in the Gulf of Alaska will likely help sustain a the general EPO- regime that has persisted with only a few interruptions this winter. In addition, there is growing support among the ensembles that the Arctic Oscillation will be predominantly negative for at least the first week or two of February.

 

Below are charts based on past years with similar teleconnections, similar teleconnections following reasonably similar January temperature anomalies across North America, and the CFSv2 forecast:

 

 

Given the ensembles for the opening of February and the above charts, I suspect that a large part of North America will likely see a colder than normal February. There could be some moderation, particularly during the first week of the month, but it would not surprise me if that moderation were followed by another bout of severe cold. The first half of February could also feature above normal snowfall in areas that are running above normal, including Chicago, Detroit, New York City, Newark, Philadelphia, and Boston. The possibility exist that the above normal snowfall could also impact Baltimore and perhaps Washington, DC during February, especially if the AO goes strongly negative as a few ensemble members imply.

 

Overall, in terms of temperature anomalies, I expect:

 

Pacific Northwest/western Canada: Near Normal

Southwest/Southern Plains: Warmer than normal

Southeast: Warmer than normal

Northern Plains, Central Plains, Great Lakes Region/Ohio Valley, Mid-Atlantic, and New England: Colder than normal

Eastern Canada, except the Atlantic provinces and extreme northern areas: Colder than normal. The excepted areas should wind up warmer than normal, especially if strong blocking develops.

[donsutherland1]

1/27-29/2014 Precipitation in the Deep South:

 

Per Bufkit soundings:

 

Charleston: Some sleet and a lot of freezing rain

New Orleans: Sleet, freezing rain, and then accumulating snow (possibly several inches)

Savannah: Some sleet and a lot of freezing rain

[cbmclean]

February 2014 Thoughts...

 

Recent weeks have seen a rather dramatic cooling in ENSO Region 3.4. This is one signal of a cooler than normal February across the eastern half of the CONUS. Winters that preceded the development of an El Niño that had a January-March ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly of > 0°C typically featured a lot of warmth in February (1957 and 2002). Those that had an anomaly of < 0° often featured a lot of cool anomalies in February (1965 and 1968).

 

At the same time, the strong positive SSTAs in the Gulf of Alaska will likely help sustain a the general EPO- regime that has persisted with only a few interruptions this winter. In addition, there is growing support among the ensembles that the Arctic Oscillation will be predominantly negative for at least the first week or two of February.

 

Below are charts based on past years with similar teleconnections, similar teleconnections following reasonably similar January temperature anomalies across North America, and the CFSv2 forecast:

 

 

Given the ensembles for the opening of February and the above charts, I suspect that a large part of North America will likely see a colder than normal February. There could be some moderation, particularly during the first week of the month, but it would not surprise me if that moderation were followed by another bout of severe cold. The first half of February could also feature above normal snowfall in areas that are running above normal, including Chicago, Detroit, New York City, Newark, Philadelphia, and Boston. The possibility exist that the above normal snowfall could also impact Baltimore and perhaps Washington, DC during February, especially if the AO goes strongly negative as a few ensemble members imply.

 

Overall, in terms of temperature anomalies, I expect:

 

Pacific Northwest/western Canada: Near Normal

Southwest/Southern Plains: Warmer than normal

Southeast: Warmer than normal

Northern Plains, Central Plains, Great Lakes Region/Ohio Valley, Mid-Atlantic, and New England: Colder than normal

Eastern Canada, except the Atlantic provinces and extreme northern areas: Colder than normal. The excepted areas should wind up warmer than normal, especially if strong blocking develops.

Hello Don.

 

I am a curious layman with a considerable interest in weather in the arctic.  I see that your "teleconnections + reasonable January match" and the CFS are predicting warm anomalies for the eastern part of arctic Canada (especially the arctic archipelago).  Do you have any information on the physical mechanism of the EPO- regime which causes such anomalous warmth in these areas?

[donsutherland1]

Hello Don.

 

I am a curious layman with a considerable interest in weather in the arctic.  I see that your "teleconnections + reasonable January match" and the CFS are predicting warm anomalies for the eastern part of arctic Canada (especially the arctic archipelago).  Do you have any information on the physical mechanism of the EPO- regime which causes such anomalous warmth in these areas?

That's probably the AO- that is suggesting such an outcome, not the EPO.

[donsutherland1]

January 28-29, 2014 Southern Snowstorm:

 

Based on the latest ensemble and operational model guidance (prior to the 1/27 12z run of the ECMWF), one could probably make a case that the February 6-7, 1980 and March 1-2, 1980 snowstorms had reasonably similar 500 mb patterns. Below are charts showing the composite 500 mb anomalies for those two storms and qpf/snowfall for select cities:

 

 

Taking into consideration those 500 mb cases and the latest guidance, snowfall risks can probably be listed as follows:

 

Trace or Less:

Boston

New York City

Philadelphia

Washington, DC

 

1" or Less:

Atlantic City

Birmingham

Savannah

 

1"-3":

Atlanta

Charleston

 

2"-4":

Charlotte

Columbia

Richmond

Wilmington, NC

 

3"-6":

Raleigh

 

6" or More:

Norfolk

[donsutherland1]

February 8-15, 2014 Throughts:

 

Two words sum up the idea for a large part of the eastern CONUS: "Cold" and "Snowy."

 

In discussions in this thread, the January 25-February 15 timeframe was highlighted as one that would likely see above normal snowfall in the eastern CONUS, particularly areas that had already seen above normal snowfall (Midwest, Great Lakes, northern Mid-Atlantic, and New England). So far, that period is off to a good start for the most part.

 

Select Snowfall since January 25:

 

Boston: 0.1"

Detroit: 8.8" (bringing 2014's record January figure to 38.3")

New York City: 1.0"

Newark: 1.0"

Philadelphia: 2.4"

 

Today into tomorrow, a snowstorm will rage across parts of the South. Cities such as Raleigh and Norfolk will pick up a significant snowfall. The potential exists for Norfolk to receive 10" or more snow.

 

With the subtropical jet showing some signs of life and very cold air remaining locked in over Canada and the northern tier of the U.S. courtesy of linked blocking from the EPO- to the AO-, this period will likely feature abundant snowfall opportunities (probably beginning around February 5-6). Renewed cold should also reassert itself. The possibility exists for a bout of severe cold that could send temperatures back into the single digits in the Mid-Atlantic region and below zero in the Midwest, Plains States, and Great Lakes region.

 

Below are the maps for the teleconnection cases that had a reasonable match with the January outcomes to date and the GFS ensembles at 360 hours (middle of the 2/8-15 period):

 

 

Based on the ensembles (ECMWF and GFS), recent runs of the operational GFS, and the teleconnection cases above, I expect the following anomalies:

 

Western Canada: Near Normal

Rest of Canada: Colder than normal

Western third of the CONUS: Above normal

Southern Plains: Near normal in the north; colder than normal to the north

Northern and Central Plains eastward across the Midwest and Great Lakes/Ohio Valley to the Mid-Atlantic and New England: Colder than normal

Southeast: Near normal in the north; warmer than normal in the south (particularly the Gulf Coast and Florida)

 

The second half of this discussion is devoted to the possible pattern evolution through the period and somewhat beyond. Although 1899 is referenced, one should not expect the same kind of extreme Arctic outbreak seen during that case. The February 1899 Arctic outbreak was one of the benchmark Arctic outbreaks during the past three centuries in North America. Instead, the pattern evolution might provide some insights related to the return of severe cold (perhaps comparable to that seen this month) and snow (consistent with what was described above).

 

Yesterday, in the Southeastern Region discussion, I noted that some of today's daily snowfall records were set in 1899.

 

Following the storm, 1899 saw a relaxation of the cold. The February 2-5 period saw temperatures soar as high as 63° in Richmond. However, the cold returned beginning February 6 and the February 8-15 period proved severely cold.

 

If one examines the temperature anomalies shown on the teleconnection cases cited above and those during the somewhat larger February 1-5, 1899 period, one finds a reasonable match.

 

 

Similarities also show up at 500 mb:

 

 

What this situation implies is a possible scenario where:

 

1. The relaxation in the cold for the first 5-7 days of February could be temporary

2. Colder anomalies return at some point afterward with the potential for severe cold increasing during the second half of the 2/8-15 period and possibly afterward

3. Above normal snowfall in the eastern CONUS with the potential of a significant storm (especially if the subtropical jet comes to life as currently modeled).

[Srain]

RECORD EVENT REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
636 AM CST WED JAN 29 2014

...RECORD DAILY MAXIMUM SNOWFALL SET AT HOUSTON INTERCONTINENTAL...

A RECORD SNOWFALL OF TRACE WAS SET AT HOUSTON INTERCONTINENTAL
YESTERDAY. THIS IS THE FIRST RECORDED SNOWFALL FOR THE DATE IN THE
HISTORY OF THE STATION.

 

A note from Meteorologist Jeff Lindner (Harris County Flood Control District):

 

Note: After talking with WFO forecasters yesterday, none of those that have been there in the past 20 years or so can remember issuing two Winter Storm Warnings for the area within 4 days of each other. Looking back the closest I could find would be 1973 when 3 winter storms impacted the region in January and February. The last 2 were 7 days apart and both brought 1.4 inches of snow to Houston (2-10-73 and 2-17-73).

 

This has been a Historic period across Coastal Texas that predates 1973. NWS BRO issued a Winter Storm Warning for Freezing rain that extended all the way to Brownsville overnight. 41 Years since the last multiple Winter Storm Events in such a short period is very remarkable for our Region.
 

[Guru Of Reason]

A TEOTWAWKI blizzard destroys Houston!  Welcome to the Day After Tomorrow, folks.

 

RECORD EVENT REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
636 AM CST WED JAN 29 2014

...RECORD DAILY MAXIMUM SNOWFALL SET AT HOUSTON INTERCONTINENTAL...

A RECORD SNOWFALL OF TRACE WAS SET AT HOUSTON INTERCONTINENTAL
YESTERDAY. THIS IS THE FIRST RECORDED SNOWFALL FOR THE DATE IN THE
HISTORY OF THE STATION.

[donsutherland1]

Morning thoughts...

 

1. In the wake of the snowstorm, temperatures plunged into the single digits across parts of the Mid-Atlantic region and below zero in a few spots. Some highlights:

 

Atlantic City: -3° (Broke daily record of 5° set in 2000; 2nd subzero reading of the winter and the most since winter 1995-96 when there were 3)

 

Baltimore: 5° (10th single-digit reading of the winter and the most since winter 1981-82 when there were 10)

 

Norfolk: 6° (Broke daily record of 10° set in 1934 and the 1st single digit reading since 1/191994 when the temperature fell to 5°)

 

Raleigh: 7° (Tied daily record of 7° set in 1977; 2nd single digit reading of the winter and the most since winter 1999-00 when there were 2)

 

Richmond: 4° (2nd single digit reading of the winter and the most since winter 1999-00 when there were 2)

 

2. The much colder than normal regime will now relax and temperatures will moderate through the first 5-7 days of February. The relaxation looks to be temporary.

 

3. The biggest snows still lie ahead in the 1/25-2/15 period that has looked snowy for some time from the Midwest to the northern Mid-Atlantic and New England states and perhaps farther south. The 2/8-15 period appears to have the best prospects for heaviest snows as the subtropical jet should be active and the cold should be reasserting itself.

 

4. The overall pattern evolution seems to be unfolding reasonably similar to 1899 albeit without the kind of extreme-to-historic cold seen that winter. That evolution also saw a temporary period of moderation followed by snowfall and severe cold. That kind of evolution still looks good on a lot of the guidance, even as day-to-day details remain to be resolved. The ensembles also suggest a renewed Arctic assault in the extended range. Hence, cities such as Baltimore, New York, and Philadelphia likely have not seen their last single-digit readings of the winter.

[uncle W]

Morning thoughts...

 

1. In the wake of the snowstorm, temperatures plunged into the single digits across parts of the Mid-Atlantic region and below zero in a few spots. Some highlights:

 

Atlantic City: -3° (Broke daily record of 5° set in 2000; 2nd subzero reading of the winter and the most since winter 1995-96 when there were 3)

 

Baltimore: 5° (10th single-digit reading of the winter and the most since winter 1981-82 when there were 10)

 

Norfolk: 6° (Broke daily record of 10° set in 1934 and the 1st single digit reading since 1/191994 when the temperature fell to 5°)

 

Raleigh: 7° (Tied daily record of 7° set in 1977; 2nd single digit reading of the winter and the most since winter 1999-00 when there were 2)

 

Richmond: 4° (2nd single digit reading of the winter and the most since winter 1999-00 when there were 2)

 

2. The much colder than normal regime will now relax and temperatures will moderate through the first 5-7 days of February. The relaxation looks to be temporary.

 

3. The biggest snows still lie ahead in the 1/25-2/15 period that has looked snowy for some time from the Midwest to the northern Mid-Atlantic and New England states and perhaps farther south. The 2/8-15 period appears to have the best prospects for heaviest snows as the subtropical jet should be active and the cold should be reasserting itself.

 

4. The overall pattern evolution seems to be unfolding reasonably similar to 1899 albeit without the kind of extreme-to-historic cold seen that winter. That evolution also saw a temporary period of moderation followed by snowfall and severe cold. That kind of evolution still looks good on a lot of the guidance, even as day-to-day details remain to be resolved. The ensembles also suggest a renewed Arctic assault in the extended range. Hence, cities such as Baltimore, New York, and Philadelphia likely have not seen their last single-digit readings of the winter.

February 1899 did have a big thaw the second half of the month...the second half averaged above normal with three rain storms that melted the blizzard of 2/13/1899 quickly...