donsutherland1 Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 Super Cold Shot for 1/5-8/2014... The GFS ensembles are now indicating 850 mb temperature anomalies of 4 standard deviations below normal in parts of the Midwest/Great Lakes/Ohio Valley region from the upcoming cold air mass. On the table would be the idea that both St. Louis and Chicago could see subzero high temperatures and low temperatures of perhaps -15° in St. Louis and below -20° in Chicago. The three lowest maximum temperatures for St. Louis are: 1. -5°, 12/24/1983 2. -4°, 12/29/1880 3. -3° 2/9/1899 and 2/12/1899 The three lowest minimum temperatures for St. Louis are: 1. -22°, 1/5/1884 2. -19°, 1/18/1930 3. -18°, 2/13/1905 and 1/20/1985 The three lowest maximum temperatures for Chicago are: 1. -11°, 12/24/1983 and 1/18/1994 2. -10° 1/25/1897 3. -8°, 2/9/1899 The three lowest minimum temperatures for Chicago are: 1. -27°, 1/20/1985 2. -26°, 1/10/1982 3. -25°, 1/16/1982 and 12/24/1983 The latest MOS figures for lowest temperature (18z GFS) are: Chicago: -22° St. Louis: -14° Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 Don, the updated MOS guidance for IAH is now suggesting a low of 15F for January 7th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 Don, the updated MOS guidance for IAH is now suggesting a low of 15F for January 7th. That would be very impressive if it verifies. The last time Houston had a temperature in the teens was 1/8/1996 (19°). It just missed during the great blocking episode of 2010 when the temperature fell to 20° on 1/9. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 Parts of NE Mexico will probably see wintry precipitation...including my hometown. Last flurries were in Dec 2004, with no accumulation. Dec 1997 saw accumulations in the higher parts of the city of 1 to 3 inches approx. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 The wave 1 response has been a little stronger than I was seeing forecast. Hence the warming in the far upper reaches of the stratosphere right now. But it won't be enough to get things going. But we maintain this wave 2 amplitude for a while, keeping the vortex stretched across the pole, with notable mid latitude heat flux. I think better potential for a SSW in mid February. Also supported by the QBO easterly shear zone dropping to around 30mb in February. This phase in February and March is statistically most favorable for a negative AO.2006-7 is a really interesting analog for comparison. First, generally cold vortex sticking near the pole, with the same MQI phase. December 2006 to early January saw similar small preliminary disruption of the stratospheric polar vortex. The MAJOR difference being that the PV slid to the other side of the pole. It's actually really really cool. So the 500mb pattern is IDENTICAL over the North Atlantic and Europe (+NAO with cold vortex), and completely OPPOSITE over the Gulf of Alaska up through the Bering Strait. Well we saw what a massive difference that made in terms of sensible weather over the US!!Anyway, we know how the AO turned on a dime in the second half of winter in 2007. As I said, I think that flip looks good this winter too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 Any indications the polar vortex is going to go to the other side of the globe in next 2-3 weeks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 6, 2014 Share Posted January 6, 2014 Some evening thoughts... 1. At Green Bay, while the 49ers and Packers struggle on Lambeau Field's frozen tundra, the temperature is also struggling to catch up with the MOS projections. At 6 pm CST, the temperature was 4° vs. the 1° GFS MOS forecast for 0z. Nevertheless, the coldest air mass in at least a number of winters, possibly back to the 1990s is now moving into the region. 2. At St Louis, a large snowstorm will wind down tonight after dumping 6"-12" snow. Subzero cold will follow. 3. In the longer-range, a pattern relaxation is likely to unfold. The period of moderation could last 7-10 days. However, teleconnection cases and the extended range of the GFS are pointing to a return of the cold afterward. Whether or not the cold is as severe as has been the case at the opening of January remains to be seen, but the cold should be sufficient to produce snowfall opportunities in a large area running from the Midwest eastward. Some of the 11-day objective analogs e.g., 1/11/1994, are quite bullish on the return of significant cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 6, 2014 Share Posted January 6, 2014 Some evening thoughts... 1. At Green Bay, while the 49ers and Packers struggle on Lambeau Field's frozen tundra, the temperature is also struggling to catch up with the MOS projections. At 6 pm CST, the temperature was 4° vs. the 1° GFS MOS forecast for 0z. Nevertheless, the coldest air mass in at least a number of winters, possibly back to the 1990s is now moving into the region. Don, I earlier today posted this in the SE forum: "Folks, Based on Bismarck, ND, and the Twin Cities, MN, I'm a bit concerned about a cold bias in the GFS, which MAY mean we shouldn't completely ignore the warmer Euro. I still am leaning to the GFS verifying more closely down in Atlanta at least, especially because of those very cold 850's (~-19 C) being progged there. Btu it is far from a slam dunk imo. Bismarck: The ten GFS runs ending with today's 6Z run all had Bismarck at between -13 and -16 for 12Z today. Today's 6Z run had them at -16, tied for the coldest of any of these ten runs! However, it ended up being a sig. warmer -8. Also, these same runs had them at between -16 and -21 at 21Z today with the last two runs (6Z and 12Z today) at -19. Well, they are only down to -13. The actual drop of 5 at Bismarck between 12Z and 21Z today was about what the GFS progged. Was the Arctic air actually modeled as too cold or if it just delayed about 12 hours. Any opinions? Twin Cities: The GFS has been progressively warming from run to run for both 12Z and 21Z today. For 12Z today, the runs have warmed from -18 on early Friday runs to -11/-12 on today's 0Z and 6Z runs. Nevertheless, the actual was only down to -9 today at 12Z. For 21Z today, it has warmed from -12's on the Friday runs to -8/-7 on today's three runs. Nevertheless, the actual was only down to -5 at 21Z today. The actual warming of 4 between 12Z and 21Z today is actually in line with these GFS progs. Opinions? Do we have a sig. problem with the GFS cold bias? If so, does that mean the actuals will verify warmer than the GFS and closer to the Euro here in the SE? Or is the cold just delayed?" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 6, 2014 Share Posted January 6, 2014 Don, I earlier today posted this in the SE forum: "Folks, Based on Bismarck, ND, and the Twin Cities, MN, I'm a bit concerned about a cold bias in the GFS, which MAY mean we shouldn't completely ignore the warmer Euro. I still am leaning to the GFS verifying more closely down in Atlanta at least, especially because of those very cold 850's (~-19 C) being progged there. Btu it is far from a slam dunk imo. Bismarck: The ten GFS runs ending with today's 6Z run all had Bismarck at between -13 and -16 for 12Z today. Today's 6Z run had them at -16, tied for the coldest of any of these ten runs! However, it ended up being a sig. warmer -8. Also, these same runs had them at between -16 and -21 at 21Z today with the last two runs (6Z and 12Z today) at -19. Well, they are only down to -13. The actual drop of 5 at Bismarck between 12Z and 21Z today was about what the GFS progged. Was the Arctic air actually modeled as too cold or if it just delayed about 12 hours. Any opinions? Twin Cities: The GFS has been progressively warming from run to run for both 12Z and 21Z today. For 12Z today, the runs have warmed from -18 on early Friday runs to -11/-12 on today's 0Z and 6Z runs. Nevertheless, the actual was only down to -9 today at 12Z. For 21Z today, it has warmed from -12's on the Friday runs to -8/-7 on today's three runs. Nevertheless, the actual was only down to -5 at 21Z today. The actual warming of 4 between 12Z and 21Z today is actually in line with these GFS progs. Opinions? Do we have a sig. problem with the GFS cold bias? If so, does that mean the actuals will verify warmer than the GFS and closer to the Euro here in the SE? Or is the cold just delayed?" GaWx, I suspect that it is a combination of both factors. The ECMWF is not quite as extreme as it had been a few days ago. At the same time, it seems that the cold air is spreading south and eastward a little more slowly than modeled. Ironically, for many eastern cities, the GFS was a bit too cold for the 1/3-4 cold shot. Albany, Burlington, Boston, New York City, Philadelphia, etc., all had low temperatures above the figures forecast by the GFS. IMO, the possible bias is something to watch for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 6, 2014 Share Posted January 6, 2014 Any indications the polar vortex is going to go to the other side of the globe in next 2-3 weeks I'm not aware of any overwhelming data pointing to this development. Instead, it appears that there will be a relaxation and then reloading of the pattern. There's some chance that EPO- and PNA+ ridges could link up allowing for renewed cross-polar flow down the road. That's still in the extended range so it remains to be seen whether this will happen. Certainly, one of the Day 11 objective analogs (1/11/94) is intriguing to say the least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tacoman25 Posted January 6, 2014 Share Posted January 6, 2014 Looking at the temps right now in ND/SD and MN, I don't think the cold is really under-performing per blended model guidance, it was just delayed a bit for places further east. A lot of places already in the -20 to -30 range, after lows close to -40 a few places in northern MN this morning. I guarantee there will be places in the southern plains/southern Mississippi Valley that will get colder than models indicated. Even way out west here in CO, Denver had a high of just 12 today, well below the low 20s that were being forecast 48 hours ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 6, 2014 Share Posted January 6, 2014 Looking at the temps right now in ND/SD and MN, I don't think the cold is really under-performing per blended model guidance, it was just delayed a bit for places further east. A lot of places already in the -20 to -30 range, after lows close to -40 a few places in northern MN this morning. I guarantee there will be places in the southern plains/southern Mississippi Valley that will get colder than models indicated. Even way out west here in CO, Denver had a high of just 12 today, well below the low 20s that were being forecast 48 hours ago. This will be an extreme air mass without doubt. The only question is whether it will be the borderline historic one modeled a few days ago. We'll know soon enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 6, 2014 Share Posted January 6, 2014 This will be an extreme air mass without doubt. The only question is whether it will be the borderline historic one modeled a few days ago. We'll know soon enough. A lot of areas in the Lakes/Ohio Valley are going to be victimized by the dreaded midnight high tonight, but the daytime cold looks freakish and on par with the all-time great arctic airmasses. Here's something put out by NWS Chicago. ... PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO IL 1000 AM CST SUN JAN 5 2014 /1100 AM EST SUN JAN 5 2014/ ...TECHNICALITY EXPECTED TO PREVENT ALL TIME RECORD COLD HIGHS FROM BEING BROKEN MONDAY... WHILE MONDAYS DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE BRUTALLY COLD AND PROBABLY COLDER THAN THE DAILY ALL-TIME RECORD COLD HIGHS...IT LOOKS UNLIKELY THAT THE ALL-TIME DAILY RECORD COLD HIGHS WILL BE BROKEN. THE TECHNICALITY THAT LOOKS LIKELY TO PREVENT MONDAY FROM BREAKING THE COLDEST DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURE EVER IS THE MIDNIGHT TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THE MIDNIGHT TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO BE THE DAILY HIGHS MONDAY AND ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE BELOW THE ALL-TIME DAILY COLD HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS. DESPITE LIKELY FALLING SHORT OF THE ALL-TIME DAILY RECORD COLD HIGHS...MONDAY WILL GO DOWN AS ONE OF THE COLDEST DAYS ON RECORD. HERE IS A RANKING OF THE COLDEST NOON TEMPERATURES ON RECORD DATING BACK TO THE 1929-30 WINTERS IN CHICAGO AND ROCKFORD. CHICAGO TEMP DATE 1) -21 JAN 10 1982 2) -17 JAN 20 1985 3) -16 DEC 24 1985 4) -15 FEB 9 1933 -15 JAN 22 1936 -15 JAN 16 1982 7) -14 JAN 18 1994 8) -13 JAN 16 1977 9) -10 JAN 18 1940 -10 JAN 28 1977 -10 JAN 9 1982 ROCKFORD TEMP DATE 1) -21 JAN 22 1936 -21 JAN 10 1982 3) -18 JAN 18 1994 4) -17 JAN 16 1982 5) -16 DEC 24 1983 -16 FEB 3 1996 7) -15 JAN 23 1963 -15 JAN 16 1977 -15 JAN 20 1985 -15 DEC 21 1989 -15 JAN 15 1994 -15 FEB 2 1996 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 6, 2014 Share Posted January 6, 2014 A lot of areas in the Lakes/Ohio Valley are going to be victimized by the dreaded midnight high tonight, but the daytime cold looks freakish and on par with the all-time great arctic airmasses. Here's something put out by NWS Chicago. ... PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO IL 1000 AM CST SUN JAN 5 2014 /1100 AM EST SUN JAN 5 2014/ ...TECHNICALITY EXPECTED TO PREVENT ALL TIME RECORD COLD HIGHS FROM BEING BROKEN MONDAY... WHILE MONDAYS DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE BRUTALLY COLD AND PROBABLY COLDER THAN THE DAILY ALL-TIME RECORD COLD HIGHS...IT LOOKS UNLIKELY THAT THE ALL-TIME DAILY RECORD COLD HIGHS WILL BE BROKEN. THE TECHNICALITY THAT LOOKS LIKELY TO PREVENT MONDAY FROM BREAKING THE COLDEST DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURE EVER IS THE MIDNIGHT TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THE MIDNIGHT TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO BE THE DAILY HIGHS MONDAY AND ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE BELOW THE ALL-TIME DAILY COLD HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS. DESPITE LIKELY FALLING SHORT OF THE ALL-TIME DAILY RECORD COLD HIGHS...MONDAY WILL GO DOWN AS ONE OF THE COLDEST DAYS ON RECORD. HERE IS A RANKING OF THE COLDEST NOON TEMPERATURES ON RECORD DATING BACK TO THE 1929-30 WINTERS IN CHICAGO AND ROCKFORD. CHICAGO TEMP DATE 1) -21 JAN 10 1982 2) -17 JAN 20 1985 3) -16 DEC 24 1985 4) -15 FEB 9 1933 -15 JAN 22 1936 -15 JAN 16 1982 7) -14 JAN 18 1994 8) -13 JAN 16 1977 9) -10 JAN 18 1940 -10 JAN 28 1977 -10 JAN 9 1982 ROCKFORD TEMP DATE 1) -21 JAN 22 1936 -21 JAN 10 1982 3) -18 JAN 18 1994 4) -17 JAN 16 1982 5) -16 DEC 24 1983 -16 FEB 3 1996 7) -15 JAN 23 1963 -15 JAN 16 1977 -15 JAN 20 1985 -15 DEC 21 1989 -15 JAN 15 1994 -15 FEB 2 1996 I agree regarding the technicality. We'll also see how cold the minimum temperatures are. Some earlier runs of the GFS and ECMWF had them around -25°, but subsequent runs have not been quite as cold. Also, for Chicago, there's a typo. The #3 figure should read 12/24/1983. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 6, 2014 Share Posted January 6, 2014 At 7 am CST, Chicago had a temperature of -15°. That broke the daily record low temperature of -14°, which was set in 1988. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted January 6, 2014 Share Posted January 6, 2014 At 7 am CST, Chicago had a temperature of -15°. That broke the daily record low temperature of -14°, which was set in 1988. Looks like O'Hare got to -16F. Lowest temp there since Jan 16, 2009 when the temp dipped to -18F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 6, 2014 Share Posted January 6, 2014 Brief update on the 1/6-8 Cold Shot... Daily low temperatures for 1/6 through 10 am: Chicago: -16° (New daily record low; old record: -14° 1884 and 1988) Indianapolis: -14° (Coldest reading since 1/21/1994 when the temperature fell to -16°) Louisville: 0° (Coldest reading since 1/16/2009 when the temperature fell to -1°) Nashville: 6° (Coldest reading since 1/16/2009 when the temperature fell to 5°; Taylor Swift won't sing about today's weather) St. Louis: -7° (Coldest reading since 2/3/1996 when the temperature fell to -12°) Very likely daily record low maximum readings: Houston: Current record: 38°, 1971 Little Rock: Current record: 22°, 1984 New Orleans: Current record: 46°, 1972 Likely daily record low maximum reading: Minneapolis-St. Paul: Current record: -14°, 1909 Possible daily record low maximum reading: Chicago: Dependent on the readings just after midnight: Current record: -1°, 1912 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted January 6, 2014 Share Posted January 6, 2014 Brief update on the 1/6-8 Cold Shot... Daily low temperatures for 1/6 through 10 am: Chicago: -16° (New daily record low; old record: -14° 1884 and 1988) Indianapolis: -14° (Coldest reading since 1/21/1994 when the temperature fell to -16°) Louisville: 0° (Coldest reading since 1/16/2009 when the temperature fell to -1°) Nashville: 6° (Coldest reading since 1/16/2009 when the temperature fell to 5°; Taylor Swift won't sing about today's weather) St. Louis: -7° (Coldest reading since 2/3/1996 when the temperature fell to -12°) Very likely daily record low maximum readings: Houston: Current record: 38°, 1971 Little Rock: Current record: 22°, 1984 New Orleans: Current record: 46°, 1972 Likely daily record low maximum reading: Minneapolis-St. Paul: Current record: -14°, 1909 Possible daily record low maximum reading: Chicago: Dependent on the readings just after midnight: Current record: -1°, 1912 Per wunderground, Chicago's high today is -5F so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 6, 2014 Share Posted January 6, 2014 Per wunderground, Chicago's high today is -5F so far. The -5° temperature was the 12:51 am reading. The 11:51 am figure was -2°. I'm hopeful that the high was -2° or below, but won't know until the data is posted this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted January 6, 2014 Share Posted January 6, 2014 Don, that 38F low maximum for IAH does appear to have a real chance of being broken today. We have a mid/upper cloud deck associated with a disturbance near the Baja that will keep our temperatures in check today. There is a slight chance that Brownsville and the Lower Rio Grande Valley may see a brief period of light snow later tonight into early tomorrow as that disturbance moves across our Region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 6, 2014 Share Posted January 6, 2014 Don, that 38F low maximum for IAH does appear to have a real chance of being broken today. We have a mid/upper cloud deck associated with a disturbance near the Baja that will keep our temperatures in check today. There is a slight chance that Brownsville and the Lower Rio Grande Valley may see a brief period of light snow later tonight into early tomorrow as that disturbance moves across our Region. It will be quite remarkable if Brownsville can have another snowfall so soon after its 12/24/05 event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 6, 2014 Share Posted January 6, 2014 At noon central time, the temperature at Chicago O'Hare was -14F, tying the noon temperature from January 18, 1994. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 6, 2014 Share Posted January 6, 2014 At 18z, temperatures were running somewhat below MOS in the Great Lakes and western portions of the Ohio Valley. Elsewhere, readings were generally running above the MOS projections (12z MOS guidance): Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tacoman25 Posted January 6, 2014 Share Posted January 6, 2014 The low of -13 in Bartlesville, OK appears to be their coldest January temperature since 1984 and their second coldest of all time (first is -15 from 1949). Also, the -9 in Kansas City appears to be tied with 1996 as their coldest January temperature since 1985. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 6, 2014 Share Posted January 6, 2014 1/6-8/2014 Cold Shot Update... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted January 6, 2014 Share Posted January 6, 2014 It appears that IAH will set a new daily high minimum with the 4:00 PM CST reading of 35F. Also HGX has lowered the expected overnight lows a couple of degrees as clearing skies approach the SE Texas meaning new record low temperatures are possible for IAH and GLS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tacoman25 Posted January 6, 2014 Share Posted January 6, 2014 1/6-8/2014 Cold Shot Update... A good number of these will be far outdone tonight. Atlanta is forecast to have a low of 6 Birmingham 8 Columbus -10 Detroit -12 Houston 22 Little Rock 8 Pittsburgh -10 Perhaps most impressive are some of the afternoon (12 or later) highs today. I'd have to think most of these are among the coldest on record. Indy -11 Chicago -12 Peoria -7 St. Louis 0 Valparaiso -14 Dayton -6 Nashville 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 6, 2014 Share Posted January 6, 2014 A good number of these will be far outdone tonight. Atlanta is forecast to have a low of 6 Birmingham 8 Columbus -10 Detroit -12 Houston 22 Little Rock 8 Pittsburgh -10 Perhaps most impressive are some of the afternoon (12 or later) highs today. I'd have to think most of these are among the coldest on record. Indy -11 Chicago -12 Peoria -7 St. Louis 0 Valparaiso -14 Dayton -6 Nashville 11 I agree. I'll post on them again later this evening and again tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 7, 2014 Share Posted January 7, 2014 New Daily Low Maximum Temperatures: Houston: 36° (broke the daily record of 38° set in 1971 and was the coldest high temperature since 2/4/2011 when the temperature only reached 31°) New Orleans: 40° (broke the daily record of 46° set in 1972 and was the coldest high temperature since 2/11/2011 when the temperature only reached 39°) Also, at 7 pm, Detroit's temperature had fallen to -10°. That has broken the daily record low temperature of -7°, which was set in 1924. The temperature is also Detroit's coldest reading since 1/17/2009 when the mercury fell to -11°. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted January 7, 2014 Share Posted January 7, 2014 New Daily Low Maximum Temperatures: Houston: 36° (broke the daily record of 38° set in 1971 and was the coldest high temperature since 2/4/2011 when the temperature only reached 31°) New Orleans: 40° (broke the daily record of 46° set in 1972 and was the coldest high temperature since 2/11/2011 when the temperature only reached 39°) Also, at 7 pm, Detroit's temperature had fallen to -10°. That has broken the daily record low temperature of -7°, which was set in 1924. The temperature is also Detroit's coldest reading since 1/17/2009 when the mercury fell to -11°. Being from the area, I am surprised to see Detroit at -10 this early.... The all time record low is -21. Most likely it won't be hit, but it might be in danger is this pace keeps up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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