December 24-25 Snowstorm

[JoMo]

*jumps off the bridge*

[dilly84]

As I mentioned in an earlier post, this is a candidate for big time Sutcliffe-Pettersen self-development -- somewhat like MSP's big daddy last week. The GFS seems to have picked up on this little tidbit over the past few runs (as has the EC today to a degree), and with the UA pattern the way it is (major upstream amplification), there's room and reason to amplify. There's also a significant latent heat component going on with this deep moisture fetch.

Honestly, my hunch is that this thing continues to trend north and slightly slower with time, not based on any "NW trend", but due to this type of cyclogenesis being picked up on.

Hope you're wrong. Can only afford maybe a 50 mile north shift before ptype problems

[csnavywx]

*jumps off the bridge*

Haha, I'm kind of worried about getting mixed/dryslotted here, so it's not all fun and games here either.

[A-L-E-K]

Haha, I'm kind of worried about getting mixed/dryslotted here, so it's not all fun and games here either.

pfff.

Not that it hasn't happened before, but at least we have a buffer zone.

[JoMo]

Haha, I'm kind of worried about getting mixed/dryslotted here, so it's not all fun and games here either.

yeah it wasn't unexpected given the ensembles and the GGEM.

[The_Global_Warmer]

if N. IL gets mixed and dry slotted that would be heart breaking for a lot people.

[snowstormcanuck]

As I mentioned in an earlier post, this is a candidate for big time Sutcliffe-Pettersen self-development -- somewhat like MSP's big daddy last week. The GFS seems to have picked up on this little tidbit over the past few runs (as has the EC today to a degree), and with the UA pattern the way it is (major upstream amplification), there's room and reason to amplify. There's also a significant latent heat component going on with this deep moisture fetch.

Honestly, my hunch is that this thing continues to trend north and slightly slower with time, not based on any "NW trend", but due to this type of cyclogenesis being picked up on.

If this occurs, you'd restore my faith in JC on Christmas Day.

[patrick7032]

Hope you're wrong. Can only afford maybe a 50 mile north shift before ptype problems

I think CS is dead on....wouldn't surprise me if it trended from NW of KPAH TO KCMH....basically along or just north of the river track.

[cyclone77]

Haha, I'm kind of worried about getting mixed/dryslotted here, so it's not all fun and games here either.

Oh god, not the dry slot of death again!!! Seriously though, we have sort of a buffer zone up here, so I'm not too concerned yet.

[The_Global_Warmer]

I think CS is dead on....wouldn't surprise me if it trended from NW of KPAH TO KCMH....basically along or just north of the river track.

How would he get dry slotted in N, IL with that track?

[TheWeatherPimp]

18z GFS precip type maps show heavy snow across much of Southern Iowa, Northern Missouri, Northern 2/3's of Illinois and Indiana into most of Ohio with some mixing, icing taking place across Southern Illinois, Indiana and into Southwest Ohio.

[A-L-E-K]

Oh god, not the dry slot of death again!!! Seriously though, we have sort of a buffer zone up here, so I'm not too concerned yet.

pretty wild bizzness this year. Like you said, we can afford a pretty decent northward adjustment at this point and the 18z GFS is kind of flying solo for now. Frankly, i just don't want a soaking rain, i can live with a miss.

in fact 50 miles north and it becomes and epic christmas eve snowstorm.

[okie333]

As I mentioned in an earlier post, this is a candidate for big time Sutcliffe-Pettersen self-development -- somewhat like MSP's big daddy last week. The GFS seems to have picked up on this little tidbit over the past few runs (as has the EC today to a degree), and with the UA pattern the way it is (major upstream amplification), there's room and reason to amplify. There's also a significant latent heat component going on with this deep moisture fetch.

Honestly, my hunch is that this thing continues to trend north and slightly slower with time, not based on any "NW trend", but due to this type of cyclogenesis being picked up on.

Or... maybe it slows down and digs south instead of cutting north as it strengthens to a 995, then does its north-cut on a roughly Little Rock to Chicago path? It would then be a north trend for the MW but not for the Plains.

LOL JK like that would ever happen...

[jhamps10]

18z GFS precip type maps show heavy snow across much of Southern Iowa, Northern Missouri, Northern 2/3's of Illinois and Indiana into most of Ohio with some mixing, icing taking place across Southern Illinois, Indiana and into Southwest Ohio.

looking at the 2M output looks like an ice/rain line would be I-70 in IL or there abouts, not what I call Southern Illinois but whatever.

[cyclone77]

...in fact 50 miles north and it becomes and epic christmas eve snowstorm.

Obviously it's way too early to get excited about actual snow numbers given tracking questions, but with 1.25" of precip and higher ratios it could be huge. 850 temps along and north of I-80 stay below -6C the whole event, so I imagine ratios would be a good 15:1. The stronger winds may lower the effect of higher ratios however. Taking the 18z GFS verbatim (which is really reaching I know lol) would yield a good 12-16 inches along the I-80 corridor.

[snowstormcanuck]

I think CS is dead on....wouldn't surprise me if it trended from NW of KPAH TO KCMH....basically along or just north of the river track.

I like what Csnavy and yourself are saying, but doesn't the fact that NAO and AO are in the tank argue against a deeply amplified solution? Or can this "Sutcliffe-Pettersen self-development " process override the unfavorable teleconnections?

[Hoosier]

pfff.

Not that it hasn't happened before, but at least we have a buffer zone.

Fairly prolonged lake snow on this run too...starting on your side and then transitioning into Indiana.

[A-L-E-K]

Obviously it's way too early to get excited about actual snow numbers given tracking questions, but with 1.25" of precip and higher ratios it could be huge. 850 temps along and north of I-80 stay below -6C the whole event, so I imagine ratios would be a good 15:1. The stronger winds may lower the effect of higher ratios however. Taking the 18z GFS verbatim (which is really reaching I know lol) would yield a good 12-16 inches along the I-80 corridor.

All the 18z GFS did was assure zero work productivity monday-wednesday.

[A-L-E-K]

Fairly prolonged lake snow on this run too...starting on your side and then transitioning into Indiana.

i saved some images to remind myself of what could have been, it was an epic run. Going by what cs is hinting, it might get even better before it gets worse.

[patrick7032]

How would he get dry slotted in N, IL with that track?

I meant I think he is dead on with the NW track and slowing due to upstream amplification....not the dry slot.

[cyclone77]

All the 18z GFS did was assure zero work productivity monday-wednesday.

Yeah it's going to be another sleep deprived filled week too.

If this storm comes to fruition as depicted by the 18z GFS it's going to have enormous impacts on holiday travel.

[jhamps10]

All the 18z GFS did was assure zero work productivity monday-wednesday.

and then watch the 0z come back to say OK alek you can double the productivity.... How a lot of folks get so excited or upset from an 18z run shocks me, now if it was a 0Z or a 12Z that's a different story... but the 18z, come on that's like saying the Rams offensive coordinator can actually call up a play of more than 20 yards...

[dilly84]

i saved some images to remind myself of what could have been, it was an epic run. Going by what cs is hinting, it might get even better before it gets worse.

I don't think the low will make it to cmh. Guess I am rooting against every met on here. 5 straight gfs runs have shown a huge hit to central OH. I think it'll come north a bit, but not that far. Maybe cincinnati. We'll see by Wednesday - thursday

[A-L-E-K]

and then watch the 0z come back to say OK alek you can double the productivity.... How a lot of folks get so excited or upset from an 18z run shocks me, now if it was a 0Z or a 12Z that's a different story... but the 18z, come on that's like saying the Rams offensive coordinator can actually call up a play of more than 20 yards...

To be fair the 12z ensemble mean and Euro weren't half bad for chicago either, just not epic like the 18z is showing, that and we have some good met input as to why a stronger solution is possible.

[The_Global_Warmer]

I meant I think he is dead on with the NW track and slowing due to upstream amplification....not the dry slot.

I can be ok with that, a non occluded system can track close to STL with the H7 low to the North but close enough to give us a good back-end dump.

as long as the ULs do not cut right into the lakes, and take more of WNW to ENE track from KPAH to the East instead of Southern MO to Chicago.

EDIT': SLP in KPAH not the H7 low.

the GFS is kind of half assed with this...I would rather see a stronger more wrapped up UL then this.

[Thundersnow12]

All the 18z GFS did was assure zero work productivity monday-wednesday.

haha that is for sure! I only work 4 hours each of those days then off. I feel pretty good about this storm, the consistency has been quite amazing. That track would be a crazy snowstorm and would only get crazier with a tad northward jog. quite a bit of lake enhancement/lake effect as well.

[patrick7032]

I like what Csnavy and yourself are saying, but doesn't the fact that NAO and AO are in the tank argue against a deeply amplified solution? Or can this "Sutcliffe-Pettersen self-development " process override the unfavorable teleconnections?

This has been a weird year....super-bomb storm producing tornadoes at 8am....SE Michigan getting 12 confirmed and 24 TORNADO WARNINGS when the norm is half that....THE LIONS WINNING 2 GAMES IN A ROW....Oregon getting a noontime December EF2....with as wild as this year has been I would "throw the normals" out the window and "fly by/forecast by the seat of your pants....well not really....just a random thought....but with regard to what you are saying with the NAO and PO....when a pattern change is underway anything is in play.

[A-L-E-K]

I don't think the low will make it to cmh. Guess I am rooting against every met on here. 5 straight gfs runs have shown a huge hit to central OH. I think it'll come north a bit, but not that far. Maybe cincinnati. We'll see by Wednesday - thursday

Meh, we've seen huge jumps both ways 100+ hrs out and if a quality met is worried about it cutting far enough north to bring mixing to Chicagoland, so am I.

[jhamps10]

To be fair the 12z ensemble mean and Euro weren't half bad for chicago either, just not epic like the 18z is showing, that and we have some good met input as to why a stronger solution is possible.

I know and I wasn't meaning you guys were jumping up and down just because an 18z shows that, heck the 18z shows like 1.25" of rain then 1" of snow, you don't see me getting upset... NOW if it was a 0z run, that might be a different story of course, gotta ride the waves shall we say.

[The_Global_Warmer]

Meh, we've seen huge jumps both ways 100+ hrs out and if a quality met is worried about it cutting far enough north to bring mixing to Chicagoland, so am I.

You will not get a mix.