Chicago Storm Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 AO still below -3SD by that time, well below the record low daily for a mod/strong Niña... you calling that a weak block? I'm going to guess he was talking about out in the East/Atlantic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 We have not had a white Christmas since 2004. We have not had a storm of 1" or more on Christmas Day since 1995, when exactly 1" fell. Here are the top 10 for Columbus: 1. 7.0" 1890 2. 5.7" 1909 3. 3.0" 1950 4. 2.5" 1917 5. 2.3" 1969 6. 1.9" 1976 7. 1.3" 1935 8. 1.2" 1944 9. 1.1" 1989 10. 1.0" 1995 Then its probably longer for me. Absolutely no snow on Christmas here in 04. Tons of freezing rain. Never turned to snow here. Over in delaware, they got hammered. I remember seeing them reporting on the news. Made me sick. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuckeyeSam Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Then its probably longer for me. Absolutely no snow on Christmas here in 04. Tons of freezing rain. Never turned to snow here. Over in delaware, they got hammered. I remember seeing them reporting on the news. Made me sick. Lol Yeah I remember Christmas 04. It wasn't white IMBY. More of a clear shiny glaze. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 GFS continues to show those nasty snow eating east winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 And jb you can't forget christmas of 00 or 01? Forecasters predicting over a foot of snow and it never came. Dryslot right over ohio got some flurries at about 5pm christmas day, worst bust ever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 18z GFS doing it's best to shed the cold bias, good hit for chicago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 18z GFS is northeast at 96hrs then the 12z run with a more expansive shield of snow on the north side Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuckeyeSam Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Its coming north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 18z appears that it will be a good hit for us ohio folks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 18z GFS is northeast at 96hrs then the 12z run with a more expansive shield of snow on the north side It pretty much destroys us. Would be nice if we can hold onto a storm from this far out, but i'm not holding my breath. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 WOW, 18z GFS is a perfect track for heavy snow here, really bumps up qpf amounts. I could look at that run all day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ArmyGreens Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Its coming north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Still looks good to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 It pretty much destroys us. Would be nice if we can hold onto a storm from this far out, but i'm not holding my breath. 20kt NE winds over the lake too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ArmyGreens Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Still looks good to me. Unfortunately north trends that start out 5 days before the event don't end up being great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 WOW, 18z GFS is a perfect track for heavy snow here, really bumps up qpf amounts. I could look at that run all day. 1"+ GPF with good ratios and strong LE signal, pretty much weenie gold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 nice http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/18/images/gfs_p24_120l.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Low at the VA coast at 138. Good good hit for us. The low doesn't look much more north to me? A lot wetter north though. Thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuckeyeSam Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Still looks good to me. Looks real good! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 .6 at ORD with .2 MKE and .0 at DTW, sharp edge there. Any shifts weaker/south and it's game over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Unfortunately north trends that start out 5 days before the event don't end up being great. it's 1 run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 And still snowing! http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/18/images/gfs_p60_138l.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Probably the best run for YYZ from any model since this threat's been on the table. Don't know if I believe this shift north, especially with that vortex tumbling out of northern Quebec. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ArmyGreens Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 it's 1 run. LOL! I know...just that these systems change their minds within a few days of coming through. Not very optimistic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick7032 Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Its coming north Surprisingly it has trended north being 5 days out....With the storm last week the GFS didn't "get on board" until 72 Hours out....I figured it would do the same this time too especially since the Euro and CMC had similar tracks....then again one run one model....so not jumping for joy yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 BOOM! http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/18/images/gfs_p60_150l.gif .75 - 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 I'd have 20"+ if every 18z GFS solution 100hrs+ out verified this year. Just saying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 I'd have 20"+ if every 18z GFS solution 100hrs+ out verified this year. Just saying. My thoughts on the 18z GFS This kid's got a real smackable face. No complaining that the best missed me to the south by 50 miles. I'll take my 0.25-0.50" and love it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Looking good! Now that we've seen something like this it's going to be hard looking at the new runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 As I mentioned in an earlier post, this is a candidate for big time Sutcliffe-Pettersen self-development -- somewhat like MSP's big daddy last week. The GFS seems to have picked up on this little tidbit over the past few runs (as has the EC today to a degree), and with the UA pattern the way it is (major upstream amplification), there's room and reason to amplify. There's also a significant latent heat component going on with this deep moisture fetch. Honestly, my hunch is that this thing continues to trend north and slightly slower with time, not based on any "NW trend", but due to this type of cyclogenesis being picked up on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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