buckeye Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 I didn't say anything about it having a weaker 300 mb jet. System would likely do what this Monday/Tuesday system is going to do...blow its load in the Plains/MS Valley and then shear out in confluence farther east after occlusion...at the same time trying to transfer to a coastal low. If it comes out farther north, the MI crew could get into some light snow. You are looking pretty good down there ATTM though. Just my guess at this point...nothing to take serious this far in advance. so you agree with my screw zone map i posted earlier in this thread....lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 I personally like where we're at right now, Buckeye. EURO is the weakest with the system, but I like its location. Gfs is good all the way around, Ukie and Gem isn't horrible and we have wiggle room for the N shift on the euro and gfs. Idk, I'm feeling this one. the euro could go either way...but i think it's like 60/40...further suppression and weakening vs. north and stronger. Don't mean to sound like a downer but we have a pretty solid history so far this season of what happens to these systems coming out of the rockies....and none of them yet has maintained their strength AND cut thru the lower OH valley the way the gfs is showing. hope i eat crow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 the euro could go either way...but i think it's like 60/40...further suppression and weakening vs. north and stronger. Don't mean to sound like a downer but we have a pretty solid history so far this season of what happens to these systems coming out of the rockies....and none of them yet has maintained their strength AND cut thru the lower OH valley the way the gfs is showing. hope i eat crow. I hope you do too lol. But idk I guess after 3 misses, I'm just feeling this one. I think this one will hold true and not flop 72hrs out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
okie333 Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 I wouldn't be surprised if this is a repeat of December 24, 2009. I'll take it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbcmh81 Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 I hope you do too lol. But idk I guess after 3 misses, I'm just feeling this one. I think this one will hold true and not flop 72hrs out Our 3 misses have us at above normal snowfall for the month and season. I can handle this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Our 3 misses have us at above normal snowfall for the month and season. I can handle this. Maybe you. Certainly not over here. I've got 1/2 inch of snow on the ground. I would be lucky if I've had a total of 4" this month Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 I'll take it! haha me too, shame it looks nothing like that storm though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Thankfully if this misses it will have to be north of me. And that is ok, if that is how it is. But it wont be cutting west then North then NW. that was a powerful deep trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Our 3 misses have us at above normal snowfall for the month and season. I can handle this. well im playing bad cop on this one.... ....you up for good cop? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 well im playing bad cop on this one.... ....you up for good cop? jb being the good cop?! haha! jk Anyway, I'll be interested in you cmh guys thoughts. It looks like from what I've seen so far that a hit for you will be a hit for me and vise versa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 jb being the good cop?! haha! jk Anyway, I'll be interested in you cmh guys thoughts. It looks like from what I've seen so far that a hit for you will be a hit for me and vise versa. jb definitely toned down the rhetoric, now he's calling it a 'disruptive' storm from the midwest to the eastcoast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 jb definitely toned down the rhetoric, now he's calling it a 'disruptive' storm from the midwest to the eastcoast. I think he was talking about jbcmh.. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 as miserable as the nam is for us here in ohio regarding tomorrow/tues clipper....it seems to want to keep light snow in the air over us most of the week.... meh, at least xmas week will look like xmas week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 I think he was talking about jbcmh.. lol oops...gotcha lol i was gonna say, accuwx's jb is ALWAYS the good cop on snowstorms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 as miserable as the nam is for us here in ohio regarding tomorrow/tues clipper....it seems to want to keep light snow in the air over us most of the week.... meh, at least xmas week will look like xmas week. Cold air will be a big change, normally in the 40's during christmas. I'm just keeping everything crossed for this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 I'm not sure what the fuss over the block is about, honestly. At the time this wave is over the Rockies, the "block" has already weakened to what amounts to a remnant circulation and has been cut off for over a week. The item of real consequence seems to be the monster GoA trough which is well advertised across all modeling, and given the massive ridge that's been persistent near the Bering Strait, it certainly seems real. This should lead to big time downstream amplification, with the wave emerging downstream of the longwave ridge that is building out west. In a nutshell: No real confluence in weak peripheral flow as it gets out into the plains and Midwest, perhaps further east. Abundant moisture for latent heat processes. Pre-existing strong baroclinic boundary. Looks like a candidate for self-development if modeling is anywhere near right at this timeframe. Having said that, with the phasing issues (wave appears to try to phase with it from the northern stream) and possible self-development, I wouldn't expect models to handle it that well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blue60007 Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Wow, ILN has already gone with 70/likely PoPs for Friday and Friday night. Can't say I've seen likely wording that far out before, but then the consistency and agreement from the models has also been remarkable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 The thing that I have noticed on all models..is that this is going to be a wide impacting storm. looks like a huge area of 2+ and 4+ inches of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Reading between the lines, LOT isn't too excited about this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ArmyGreens Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Wow, ILN has already gone with 70/likely PoPs for Friday and Friday night. Can't say I've seen likely wording that far out before, but then the consistency and agreement from the models has also been remarkable. Yeah, they have us at 70 as well...more or less to make public aware for Christmas travel is my guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Wow, ILN has already gone with 70/likely PoPs for Friday and Friday night. Can't say I've seen likely wording that far out before, but then the consistency and agreement from the models has also been remarkable. PIT just said "high pops" in their afd. I've never seen such model aggreement this far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 DVN THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...WITH REGARDS TO THE NEXT MAJOR PIECE OF WAVE ENERGY EVENTUALLY MAKING IT/S WAY ACRS THE MID CONUS...STILL PLENTY OF PHASING AND HANDLING ISSUES BY THE MODELS TO BE WORKED OUT FOR A MORE CONFIDENT SCENARIO IN THE END OF THE WEEK WINTER STORM. LOOKING AT THE DIGGING UPPER JET STRUCTURE INDICATED BY MOST MEDIUM RANGE MODELS PLUNGING SOUTHEASTWARD AND THEN HOOKING NORTHEAST OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MS RVR VALLEY LATE THU NIGHT INTO FRI... FEEL THE 12Z RUN GFS MAIN SFC LOW PLACEMENT LOOKS THE BEST ALTHOUGH IT MAY BE TOO PROGRESSIVE. THE 12Z GFS STILL WOULD SUGGEST THE SOUTHERN QUARTER TO THIRD OF THE DVN CWA STILL IN DANGER OF REACHING WINTER STORM CRITERIA SNOWS OF 6+ INCHES...WITH THE REST OF THE CWA NEEDING AN ADVISORY FOR 3-5 INCHES UNDER THE PASSING MID LEVEL WAVE. MOST OF THIS ACCUMULATING THU NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING. LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES MAY LINGER INTO X-MAS EVEN WITH ONLY MINOR OR LITTLE ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS...BUT 15 TO 25 MPH NORTHERLY SFC WINDS WOULD KEEP DRIFTING AND BLOWING SNOW TRAVEL HAZARDS GOING WELL INTO FRI EVENING. AN ICE STORM JUST SOUTH OF THE DVN CWA THU NIGHT ACRS MO INTO SOUTHWEST IL...BEFORE DEF ZONE SNOWS FOLLOW ON FRI. ALL THIS IF THE CURRENT GFS PANS OUT. THE 12Z ECMWF MORE TROUBLING WITH SOME SIGNALS OF A STRONGER UPPER JET PIECE ACRS THE GRT LKS THAT MAY PROMOTE COUPLING AND A FURTHER NORTHWARD JOG TO THE MAIN SFC LOW OR STRONGER INVERTED TROF COMPLEX TO FOCUS HEAVIER SNOWS ACRS THE LOCAL CWA AND LINGER LONGER INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. FRO NOW WILL RAISE THE POPS TO LIKELY ACRS THE SOUTH HALF THU NIGHT AND MAINTAIN HIGH CHC POPS FROM THU AFTERNOON INTO FRI. MAY STILL NEED A FEW MORE MODEL RUNS OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HRS FOR MORE CERTAINTY AS THE ENERGY GETS ONSHORE AND MORE ACCURATELY SAMPLED. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Reading between the lines, LOT isn't too excited about this storm. Given the forecaster, I wouldn't read much into it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 12z GGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbcmh81 Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 well im playing bad cop on this one.... ....you up for good cop? Sounds fair, I was bad cop for the last big one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbcmh81 Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 as miserable as the nam is for us here in ohio regarding tomorrow/tues clipper....it seems to want to keep light snow in the air over us most of the week.... meh, at least xmas week will look like xmas week. ILN says snow, rain and freezing rain, no accumulation. Must be going with the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbcmh81 Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Cold air will be a big change, normally in the 40's during christmas. I'm just keeping everything crossed for this storm. We have not had a white Christmas since 2004. We have not had a storm of 1" or more on Christmas Day since 1995, when exactly 1" fell. Here are the top 10 for Columbus: 1. 7.0" 1890 2. 5.7" 1909 3. 3.0" 1950 4. 2.5" 1917 5. 2.3" 1969 6. 1.9" 1976 7. 1.3" 1935 8. 1.2" 1944 9. 1.1" 1989 10. 1.0" 1995 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
afterimage Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Webster even indicates the potentia of 6" in their southern forecast area, so all in all, east central IN looking good, at this point, with much variability still to come. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 DMX AFTER THIS SYSTEM DEPARTS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE STRONG STORM SYSTEM CURRENTLY OFF THE PAC NW COAST. THIS SYSTEM EJECTS A STRONG SHORTWAVE INTO THE WESTERN U.S. ON WEDNESDAY. THIS SHORTWAVE SAILS ACROSS THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS AND HELPS TO INDUCE SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES ON THURSDAY. SURFACE LOW SLIDES SOUTH OF OUR CWA...MOVING NEAR THE MO-AR BORDER DEPENDING ON MODEL SOLUTION...WITH AN INVERTED TROF NORTHEASTWARD INTO OUR REGION. FORCING AND MOISTURE SUGGEST AT LEAST AN ADVISORY-TYPE SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION VENT ACROSS OUR CWA...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOWFALL AMOUNTS APPROACHING OR EXCEEDING THE WARNING CRITERIA OF SIX INCHES PER LATEST COBB OUTPUT. SOME MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THE POSSIBILITY OF ABOVE-FREEZING TEMPERATURES IN OUR SOUTHERN CWA EARLY IN THE EVENT...SO MIXED PRECIP IS A POSSIBILITY THERE BEFORE SWITCHING OVER TO ALL SNOW. THIS STORM SYSTEM IS TOO FAR OUT IN THE FUTURE TO ISSUE ANY HEADLINES ATTM... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
okie333 Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 I'm not sure what the fuss over the block is about, honestly. At the time this wave is over the Rockies, the "block" has already weakened to what amounts to a remnant circulation and has been cut off for over a week. AO still below -3SD by that time, well below the record low daily for a mod/strong Niña... you calling that a weak block? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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