December 24-25 Snowstorm

[Thundersnow12]

pretty sweet image from the 0z GGEM

[dilly84]

pretty sweet image from the 0z GGEM

Possibly. Depends on where the Low goes. Its awfully far north for me. But does look perfect for you.

[prinsburg_wx]

12Z GGEM 108 & 120

[snowstormcanuck]

Possibly. Depends on where the Low goes. Its awfully far north for me. But does look perfect for you.

Don't worry. 12z GGEM is further south.

[Hoosier]

This looks like a good candidate for a band of 6+...question is where. I have some competing interests...I will be out of town but I'd still like for LAF to get 6" since I called for 2 of those in my winter outlook.

[toronto blizzard]

I wouldn't waste my time on this one, if you're looking for a big storm. But there's a chance we could get grazed with some light accumulating snow.

Sorry SSC But I don't think we are going to have a true snowstorm this winter. It's either a storm goes to far south and we get zilch or it goes to far to our west and we get mild with rain. It seems like it can't track just enough to the south these days for us to get dumped on

[A-L-E-K]

After catching up on the action, i can't say i'm all that impressed at prospects up this, just not an impressive looking storm, jet energy is lacking, vort looks sad, etc. On the plus side, the gulf is kind of open and cold air shouldn't be a problem up here. I guess it's worth watching to see if the storm trends a little stronger, but i suspect he opposite happens.

[snowstormcanuck]

Sorry SSC But I don't think we are going to have a true snowstorm this winter. It's either a storm goes to far south and we get zilch or it goes to far to our west and we get mild with rain. It seems like it can't track just enough to the south these days for us to get dumped on

I know you're young (you're in high school right?), but it's best if you try and not let emotion get the best of you. After back to back duds in 05-06/06-07 I started to get irrational thoughts in the back of my head that I'd never see a true winter storm again. And then 2007-08 happened. The moral of the story is don't let this current dryspell sour you to the rest of the winter. It can change on a dime.

[Natester]

I wouldn't be surprised if this is a repeat of December 24, 2009 where I get lots of freezing rain at 31-32F temps. Although I'm thinking it'll be more snow than freezing rain here.

[dilly84]

After catching up on the action, i can't say i'm all that impressed at prospects up this, just not an impressive looking storm, jet energy is lacking, vort looks sad, etc. On the plus side, the gulf is kind of open and cold air shouldn't be a problem up here. I guess it's worth watching to see if the storm trends a little stronger, but i suspect he opposite happens.

I like the way it looks for here. Heck even if it trends weaker and gives a couple inches on Christmas day Id take it.

[JoMo]

any Euro update on this?

[The_Global_Warmer]

Euro UL's look like a massive I-70 winter storm, extending well north to I-80 wide area of winter.

the 850s are cold.

[Hoosier]

any Euro update on this?

Slower than the GFS.

[Chicago Storm]

Stronger, more organized and further north through 132hrs.

Goes from the Panhandle area as you mention to around OKC to MO/AR.

Then moves the the Missouri Bootheel to the KY/TN area to W. Kentucky.

Precip weakens as it pushes east.

Nice hit for places like DSM, QC, ORD, PIA and so on.

12z ECMWF comes in a bit further south.

Precip does not weaken as much as the previous run as it pushes east.

Nice hit for DSM/QC/ORD/PIA/SPI/IND.

[The_Global_Warmer]

thickness compared to the 850s look like a wider area of sleet...with temps above 850mb being above freezing..maybe a lot evaporational cooling as well.

[The_Global_Warmer]

Chicago Storm if you get time will you post the QPF whereabouts for the major cities on the Euro, thank you, always appreciative.

[kab2791]

12Z EURO

MSP: 0.51

DVN: 0.85

MKE: 0.22

ORD: 0.61

CMI: 0.49

MVN: 0.70

STL: 0.63 likely mostly snow (+ additional 0.17 maybe a mix/rain)

IND: 0.45

CVG: 0.54

CMH 0.35

TOL: 0.10

DET: 0.00

SDF: 0.58

[The_Global_Warmer]

Thanks, that is a pretty wide hit for many

[Chicago Storm]

12Z EURO

STL: 0.63

It's actually 0.83"

[A-L-E-K]

.6 at ORD with .2 MKE and .0 at DTW, sharp edge there. Any shifts weaker/south and it's game over.

[buckeye]

after seeing the euro, not sure what to think on this one. On one hand it's nice to have a southern track buffer this far out to allow for a strengthening low and further north adjustment over time, on the other, the euro being weak and south raises red flags that this could very well end up suppressed...

again.

[Northern_IN_Wx]

Areas west of me are looking good for this event. I think this god awful block is going to kill this thing as it gets east AGAIN, leaving us in northern IN, possibly northeast IL, MI, and most of OH disappointed. Oh, and expect this wave to come out farther north in the Plains...like they always do.

[A-L-E-K]

Areas west of me are looking good for this event. I think this god awful block is going to kill this thing as it gets east AGAIN, leaving us in northern IN, possibly northeast IL, MI, and most of OH disappointed. Oh, and expect this wave to come out farther north in the Plains...like they always do.

pretty much my thinking.

[The_Global_Warmer]

yes but if the wave comes out further north with a weaker 300mb jet it wont dig as much, so wouldn't this end up better for I-80 into Michigan and screw the i-70 crew?

[Thundersnow12]

pretty much my thinking.

We look good now but a southern shift wouldn't be good.

[Stevo6899]

pretty much my thinking.

Nao block? Ec storm block? Models 4+ days out are garbage so lets wait until Wednesday when the first storm fizzles.

[JoMo]

Areas west of me are looking good for this event. I think this god awful block is going to kill this thing as it gets east AGAIN, leaving us in northern IN, possibly northeast IL, MI, and most of OH disappointed. Oh, and expect this wave to come out farther north in the Plains...like they always do.

You think so? The trend the last 3 model runs has been south. I wouldn't be shocked to see the 12z GEM verify though.

[dilly84]

I personally like where we're at right now, Buckeye. EURO is the weakest with the system, but I like its location. Gfs is good all the way around, Ukie and Gem isn't horrible and we have wiggle room for the N shift on the euro and gfs. Idk, I'm feeling this one.

[Northern_IN_Wx]

yes but if the wave comes out further north with a weaker 300mb jet it wont dig as much, so wouldn't this end up better for I-80 into Michigan and screw the i-70 crew?

I didn't say anything about it having a weaker 300 mb jet. System would likely do what this Monday/Tuesday system is going to do...blow its load in the Plains/MS Valley and then shear out in confluence farther east after occlusion...at the same time trying to transfer to a coastal low. If it comes out farther north, the MI crew could get into some light snow. You are looking pretty good down there ATTM though. Just my guess at this point...nothing to take serious this far in advance.

[The_Global_Warmer]

I didn't say anything about it having a weaker 300 mb jet. System would likely do what this Monday/Tuesday system is going to do...blow its load in the Plains/MS Valley and then shear out in confluence farther east after occlusion...at the same time trying to transfer to a coastal low. If it comes out farther north, the MI crew could get into some light snow. You are looking pretty good down there ATTM though. Just my guess at this point...nothing to take serious this far in advance.

I agree..I can also see this not amplifying as much and being much further north.