JoMo Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 I see some places in missouri and iowa getting 3-6 inches but it just doesn't look as impressive as it should with the gulf open and the placement of the low. Looks like the EC low is shearing the storm out as it moves east. Wouldn't that EC storm not allow it to intensify and ride the coast north like the euro showed? Or is a monsterous phased storm able to push the EC storm out of the way? Thanks It's pretty much just an upper level storm, doesn't really form a surface low, doesn't really wrap up that well at any level. If it wasn't for how strong the 500 MB energy is, it would probably just be an open trough that gets smashed by the N Stream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 it would have to phase earlier. The ridging ahead of the trough still seems like crap until it about hits the coast. does accuwx have some secret map? I ask because on their news page they have maps of the christmas storm posted today and has plowable snow over us, and have the low going off the coast of virginia. Just would like to know what in the world they look at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 one thing i'd watch for is the trend with how much energy the models start to slide into the back of the trough. Many times i've seen this beefed up as the forecast period shortens. could be worth it for eastern OV to coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ArmyGreens Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 does accuwx have some secret map? I ask because on their news page they have maps of the christmas storm posted today and has plowable snow over us, and have the low going off the coast of virginia. Just would like to know what in the world they look at. Dilly, just walk towards the bus. Do NOT look back, just step onto the bus... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jhamps10 Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 that map must be working on low ratios or something, cuz i believe there's a good swath of .5 QPF across MO into the STL metro area... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 ILN: UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS AT THIS POINT FOR POTENTIAL WEATHER SYSTEM CHRISTMAS EVE DAY INTO CHRISTMAS MORNING. HOWEVER...MODEL TRENDS ARE NOT BODING WELL FOR THOSE WHO WANT TO SEE A WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL DURING THIS TIME FRAME. 00Z ECMWF AND 12Z ECMWF HAVE CONTINUED THEIR SOLUTION OF EJECTING A CLOSED UPR LVL LOW FROM THE SRN CALIFORNIA COAST INTO THE SRN PLAINS WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY. AS THIS OCCURS...AMPLIFICATION IN THE NRN STREAM DEVELOPS A MID LVL TROF ACRS THE NRN PLAINS AND WRN GREAT LAKES. THIS AMPLIFYING MID LVL TROF...PER ECMWF...PUSHES THE UPR LVL CLOSED LOW TOWARD THE LOWER GULF COAST STATES..KEEPING SFC LOW REFLECTION SUPPRESSED DOWN IN THE GULF COAST STATES. THIS SCENARIO TAKES MOST FORCING WITH THE MID LVL TROF PRETTY MUCH AROUND THE WRN AND SRN PERIPHERY OF THE FORECAST AREA...LEAVING PERHAPS A SMALL CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS. ALTHOUGH THE 12Z GFS HAS NOW DEVELOPED AN UPR LVL CLOSED LOW FROM THE SRN SYSTEM...IT STILL WANTS TO PHASE THIS ENERGY MORE WITH THE NRN STREAM MID LVL TROF...ALLOWING FOR MORE FRONTOGENETIC FORCING TO OCCUR IN THE OHIO VALLEY...AND THUS PRODUCING A MORE LIKELIHOOD OF SNOW. THE LATEST NAM-WRF HAS FALLEN IN LINE WITH THE ECMWF SOLUTION WHILE THE 12Z GEM IS SOMEWHERE BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND THE GFS. THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT OUR AREA COULD HAVE VERY LITTLE SNOWFALL CHRISTMAS EVE DAY AND NIGHT OR A RESPECTABLE SNOWFALL OF PERHAPS 2 TO 4 INCHES. AM CONCERNED THAT THE ECMWF MAY END UP BEING TRUE...ALTHOUGH SOME UNCERTAINTY WILL REMAIN UNTIL THE UPR LVL CLOSED LOW GETS ON SHORE LATE WEDNESDAY. BY THIS TIME...THE 00Z THURSDAY MODEL RUNS SHOULD HAVE THE WRITING ON THE WALL. GIVEN THE ONGOING UNCERTAINTY...HAVE KEPT CHC POPS NORTH WITH LIKELY POPS SOUTH FOR LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. IN EITHER CASE...THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING SNOW WOULD BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 1,234 posts and counting. Need a thread #2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 one thing i'd watch for is the trend with how much energy the models start to slide into the back of the trough. Many times i've seen this beefed up as the forecast period shortens. could be worth it for eastern OV to coast. Exactly. That is the CAA I am talking about in the low levels. NAM looks like CMC/ECM with that. It will be hard for GFS to verify with so much low level CAA. That PV will have to be really intense to change the trajectories of that cold air eastward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jhamps10 Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 1,234 posts and counting. Need a thread #2. done: http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php?/topic/4818-christmas-snowstorm-part-2/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 1,234 posts and counting. Need a thread #2. Yep. And whoever starts it, put a ? at the end of the thread title. Has seemed to work well for some so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chagrin Falls Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 does accuwx have some secret map? I ask because on their news page they have maps of the christmas storm posted today and has plowable snow over us, and have the low going off the coast of virginia. Just would like to know what in the world they look at. $$$ GREED $$$ POPULARITY $$$ RATINGS $$$ PROFITS $$$ EXTREMISM $$$ LOUD $$$ Even on this board, it isn't the most accurate meteorologist who people pay attention to, it is the one who provides what people are looking for. Interest in meteorology is very psychological and Accu Weather knows how to play the minds of people. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Natester Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Just saw this in the DVN AFD. OVERALL...HAVE DELAYED THE ONSET OF SNOW OVER ESPECIALLY THE CENTRAL AND EAST TO MAINLY LATE AFTERNOON THU INTO THU EVENING DUE TO A SLOWER SYSTEM AND AN INITIAL DRY LOW LEVEL AIRMASS UNDER THE DEPARTING SURFACE RIDGE. AS OF NOW...LOOKING AT POSSIBLY AN ADVISORY TYPE 24 HOUR SNOWFALL FOR THU NIGHT INTO FRI. A BEST GUESS ESTIMATE WOULD BE FOR AN AXIS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES FROM ROUGHLY DSM THROUGH WASHINGTON TO GALESBURG...WITH 1 TO 3 INCHES NORTH AND SOUTH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jhamps10 Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Yep. And whoever starts it, put a ? at the end of the thread title. Has seemed to work well for some so far. does having it in the subtitle count??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 $$ GREED $$ POPULARITY $$ RATINGS $$ PROFITS $$ EXTREMISM $$ LOUD $$ Even on this board, it isn't the most accurate meteorologist who people pay attention to, it is the one who provides what people are looking for. Interest in meteorology is very psychological and Accu Weather knows how to play the minds of people. Unfortunately this is partially true. It is a game for some companies. Doomsday forecasters work the same way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 that map must be working on low ratios or something, cuz i believe there's a good swath of .5 QPF across MO into the STL metro area... Surface temps 30-35 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jhamps10 Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Please move discussion here: http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php?/topic/4818-dec-24-25-snowstorm-part-2/ could our friendly mods please lock the doors here... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chagrin Falls Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Unfortunately this is partially true. It is a game for some companies. Doomsday forecasters work the same way. Every 6 hrly update of the NAM, GFS and DGEX is a "FOX NEWS ALERT" with the American flag waving in the background. God Bless America! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 does accuwx have some secret map? I ask because on their news page they have maps of the christmas storm posted today and has plowable snow over us, and have the low going off the coast of virginia. Just would like to know what in the world they look at. AXWM (Accuweather Weenie Model) It takes into effect the location of their subscriber base, overall population, and amount of hype. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 AXWM (Accuweather Weenie Model) It takes into effect the location of their subscriber base, overall population, and amount of hype. Henry M is calling it a storm of biblical proportions for the ec lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowBerg Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 \/ 00 <snip> ALTHOUGH SOME UNCERTAINTY WILL REMAIN UNTIL THE UPR LVL CLOSED LOW GETS ON SHORE LATE WEDNESDAY. BY THIS TIME...THE 00Z THURSDAY MODEL RUNS SHOULD HAVE THE WRITING ON THE WALL. Considering how poorly the models have been doing with system in the Midwest so far, there's still some hope. The system that produced the >50 mph winds on December 11-12 was woefully underforecast until 12-24 hours before. Until that time it looked like a system that would be best described as unremarkable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ArmyGreens Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Uhm, just in case evryone missed it...there is a Part 2 to this thread now! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Considering how poorly the models have been doing with system in the Midwest so far, there's still some hope. The system that produced the >50 mph winds on December 11-12 was woefully underforecast until 12-24 hours before. Until that time it looked like a system that would be best described as unremarkable. will reply in part 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 I am just catching up on the thread since I've been gone all day. I know that Part II is started, but I just got to the part about Crometie. I had posted in another thread: "Cromartie is a met??!! What the ...??!!! " I was wondering if anyone could remove that axe from my head. Now on to Part II of "Is this gonna be HECS?" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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