BowMeHunter Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 I've had to read like 50 comments about this got damn bus today. What makes it worse is we're not stealing their snow either. I hope somebody gets to enjoy this one and its not out to sea though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 The kid is brutal and hideous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Well even with 12z Euro EC bomb, it flushes the pattern thereafter and we torch something fierce days 9-10, so there you go. On a rather large tangent, if that were to verify, we would probably be dealing with a severe wx/tornado threat here around New Year's...just sayin'... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 What makes it worse is we're not stealing their snow either. I hope somebody gets to enjoy this one and its not out to sea though. Great avatars guys Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 On a rather large tangent, if that were to verify, we would probably be dealing with a severe wx/tornado threat here around New Year's...just sayin'... Bring it on, i'm ready to shake things up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Basically have lost hope, but I won't hop off of buckeyes bus yet. you're going nowhere, i got you ankle cuffed to the backseat.... we're all goin' over together Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimChgo9 Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 I raise the white flag of surrender.... Only because, after reading everything since page 31, I feel like I have been beaten up... I thought about climbing on buckeye's bus, but then, I decided to just grab the bumper and skitch the bus for a little bit... Trying to track this storm.....gave up on that too.. For some reason, just not all that interested in this thing anymore... however, since I do find the analysis surrounding it informative, I will continue to read the thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 I've had to read like 50 comments about this got damn bus today. now that we know it annoys you... expect that number to increase dramatically.... ALLLLLLLL ABOARD!!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madmaxweather Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Im still on the bus holding out hope here in the southern half of Ohio. But that hope is dwindling because I have learned very important lessons from the Euro and that is to NEVER ignore it! It can burn you! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 you're going nowhere, i got you ankle cuffed to the backseat.... we're all goin' over together WOOOOOO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 What are the chances the wave speeds up phases with the northern stream and this baby heads north right at the block? I remember seeing that several times last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Prob will be their last bus ride before winter break and hibernation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 you're going nowhere, i got you ankle cuffed to the backseat.... we're all goin' over together Lol well we have a slim chance. Id like our chances better if every model hadn't moved south, basically our only prayer now is an apps runner or for this thing to be a 96 repeat and swing that comma head back here and bomb us, both of which are 5% long shots at what are we at now 3 days out or 4? Keeps slowing down lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Prob will be their last bus ride before winter break and hibernation Im looking forward to a jan torch, in fact i'll pm cromartie and see if he has any open seats. I just want snow now thru the first of the year....after that it becomes more of a nuisance wrt bringing in new work etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Im looking forward to a jan torch, in fact i'll pm cromartie and see if he has any open seats. Have fun trying to do that... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Have fun trying to do that... whys that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Lol well we have a slim chance. Id like our chances better if every model hadn't moved south, basically our only prayer now is an apps runner or for this thing to be a 96 repeat and swing that comma head back here and bomb us, both of which are 5% long shots at what are we at now 3 days out or 4? Keeps slowing down lol Actually can't really count on that. the only reason 96 got us so far west was it's incredibly slow movement and massive high to the north....neither of which will apply this time around. In fact 96 was not that strong of a storm pressure-wise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madmaxweather Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 OMG... I am not ready to burn quite yet.... Joe B is still holding out hope for us. He thinks a heavier snow band will set from Topeka to DC along I 70..... 6-12... LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 I now I am an outlier in this thought but I honestly don't think the timing of the phase or the eventual positioning of the PV is terribly important. It shows the potential for the EC bomb and that timing wise it isn't thread the needle like last event. The strength of the PV to incite sufficient cyclogenesis to alter the CAA and development of the trough eastward is key. The CMC shows that and has a significant amount of low level CAA before the phase with the eventaul PV playing little role except to increase equatorward CAA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 whys that http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php?/user/159-cromartie/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 http://www.americanw.../159-cromartie/ hmm what was he banned for? permanent? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 http://www.americanw.../159-cromartie/ so he wasn't a met Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KokomoWX Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 IND AFD FOCUS OF THE EXTENDED REMAINS ON COMPLEX SPLIT STREAM FLOW WITH POTENTIAL WINTER WEATHER FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY IMPACTING THE TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEYS BEFORE PHASING. THE INFLUENCE OF THE GREENLAND BLOCK AND PRESENCE OF THE POLAR VORTEX CONTINUING TO KEEP SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM WELL TO OUR SOUTH AND A BIT SLOWER...WITH MOST OF THE 12Z MODEL GUIDANCE NOW FOCUSING THE SYSTEM E/SE FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST BY EARLY CHRISTMAS DAY. AT SAME TIME...PIECE OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY DIGGING ON BACK SIDE OF THE POLAR VORTEX ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THE ENERGY WILL STRENGTHEN AND AMPLIFY THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WEEKEND...CONSEQUENTLY PULLING LOW PRESSURE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES BEFORE PHASING INTO A POWERFUL NOREASTER RIDING UP THE EAST COAST BY SUNDAY. ECMWF HAS REMAINDER REMARKABLY CONSISTENT WITH MAINTAINING THE SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY WELL TO THE SOUTH ALONG THE GULF COAST WHILE MUCH OF THE REST OF THE MODELS HAVE WAFFLED THEIR TRACKS FROM SOUTHERN TENNESSEE TO THE GULF COAST DEPENDING ON TIMING AND THE DEGREE OF THE INITIAL PHASING WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY. OVERALL THOUGH...THERE HAS BEEN A NOTED SHIFT SOUTH OVER THE LAST TWO DAYS AND THIS CAN NO LONGER BE IGNORED. MAIN IMPACT THIS FURTHER SOUTH TRACK WILL HAVE FOR THE OHIO VALLEY IS TO DIMINISH POTENTIAL SNOWFALL TOTALS FROM WHERE THEY WERE A FEW DAYS AGO. AT THIS POINT IN TIME...THIS SYSTEM IS REALLY GOING TO BE TOO FAR SOUTH TO OFFER MUCH INFLUENCE ON POSSIBLE SNOWFALL. WITH THAT BEING SAID...THE PRESENCE OF THE NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY AND THE AMPLIFYING NATURE OF THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE REGION FRIDAY AND SATURDAY STILL SHOULD OFFER GOOD FORCING AND LIFT TO PRODUCE A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW OVER THE REGION CHRISTMAS EVE INTO EARLY CHRISTMAS DAY WITH CYCLONIC FLOW LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS IMPACTING THE FORECAST AREA CHRISTMAS DAY AND SUNDAY. HAVE DELAYED SNOW ONSET UNTIL EARLY FRIDAY MORNING FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH HIGHEST 60 POPS NOW FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS ALL WEEKEND WITH EXPECT CONTINUATION OF SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. WHILE THE ECMWF OFFERS THE MOST CONSISTENT OF MODEL SOLUTIONS OVER THE LAST 24-48 HOURS...DO NOT PARTICULARLY CARE FOR ITS QPF PRESENTATION OVER THE OHIO VALLEY ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. PRESENCE OF MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AND DEFORMATION WITH DECENT MOISTURE AND LIFT ACROSS THE REGION SHOULD PROMOTE WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW DURING THE TIMEFRAME. SWATH OF LIGHT QPF ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER SYSTEM GIVES THE APPEARANCE OF DRYING UP OVER THE OHIO VALLEY BEFORE TRANSITIONING ITS ENERGY TO THE PHASING OF THE COASTAL SYSTEM...AND THIS SEEMS HIGHLY QUESTIONABLE. ON THE FLIP SIDE...THE GGEM CONTINUES TO CRANK OUT HIGHER SNOWFALL TOTALS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND THE PLACEMENT OF BEST DEFORMATION/FRONTOGENESIS DOES NOT SUPPORT THESE AMOUNTS AT ALL. THE OP GFS AND MANY OF THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS CONTINUE TO HOLD TO THE IDEA OF A MODEST LIGHT SNOWFALL FROM FRIDAY MORNING INTO EARLY SATURDAY WHICH CONSIDERING AVAILABLE DYNAMICS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE UPPER TROUGH SEEM QUITE REASONABLE. AT THIS POINT...THINK A POTENTIAL 2 TO 4 INCHES DURING THE FRIDAY MORNING-SATURDAY MORNING TIMEFRAME IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH POSSIBLE ADDITIONAL LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS FROM WHAT IS INCREASINGLY LOOKING LIKE ANOTHER IDEAL SETUP FOR IMPRESSIVE LAKE EFFECT SNOWS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. WHILE QPF VALUES APPEAR LIKELY TO BE LOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT...RATIOS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE A BIT HIGHER WITH COLDER AIR MORE FIRMLY ENTRENCHED. THESE TOTALS WILL MOST CERTAINLY BE ADJUSTED UP OR DOWN AS MODEL TRENDS ALIGN IN THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. STILL SOME QUESTIONS IN THE DETAILS...AND MUCH BETTER SAMPLING TO THIS SYSTEM WILL COME OVER THE NEXT 2 OR 3 MODEL RUNS AS SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM MOVES ONTO THE CALIFORNIA COAST WEDNESDAY AND NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY DROPS SOUTH FROM JAMES BAY. THE INTERACTION...OR LACK THERE OF...OF THESE TWO FEATURES WILL ULTIMATELY DETERMINE THE TIMING...COVERAGE AND INTENSITY TO SNOWFALL OVER THE REGION. THE MAIN POINT IS THAT THE POSSIBILITY REMAINS FOR SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER TO IMPACT CENTRAL INDIANA AND THE OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THE INFLUENCE OF LAKE ENHANCED SNOWS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES POSSIBLY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE THE WINDS RELAX AND BACK WITH BROAD UPPER TROUGH PULLING AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN SLOWLY BUILD IN FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. COLD TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGHS WILL LARGELY REMAIN IN THE 20S WITH THE POSSIBILITY FOR A RETURN TO SINGLE DIGIT LOWS BY LATE WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 OMG... I am not ready to burn quite yet.... Joe B is still holding out hope for us. He thinks a heavier snow band will set from Topeka to DC along I 70..... 6-12... LOL so he going with a similar track? LMAO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 hmm what was he banned for? permanent? Since you asked, he was banned because of a calculated attempt to deceive the staff and the entire board. He requested a met tag and provided some proof and the tag was given. We try to do our best to verify and upon further investigation it was discovered that he was not telling the truth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Since you asked, he was banned because of a calculated attempt to deceive the staff and the entire board. He requested a met tag and provided some proof and the tag was given. We try to do our best to verify and upon further investigation it was discovered that he was not telling the truth. Ahh. Well that explains it, I was reading his posts thinking, "Hmm must really have to be careful of what you say" I was thinking maybe it was becasue he said he hoped the snow missed lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 IND AFD Seems reasonable. An inch or two on Christmas Eve/Day would be nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayPSU Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Very helpful and informative AFD out of IND. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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