JayPSU Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 12Z NAM puts yet another nail into the coffin for the storm in my area. I'm so sick to death of this pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 SREF individual members: Note the NAM/ETA members are all suppressed and weak, much like the 12Z NAM. The rest are north and stronger. Model mayhem at its finest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 12Z NAM puts yet another nail into the coffin for the storm in my area. I'm so sick to death of this pattern. as the bus driver it's my duty to tell you to sit down and be quiet....we will make it to our destination. I'm now taking the perilous route that includes the idea of a much slower system, an earlier phase, and inland event.....buckle up! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 lolz storm cancel... although the SREF spread gives us some hope lol hilarious how the models were pretty set on a solution for days and now we get this! gotta love model mayhem Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 as the bus driver it's my duty to tell you to sit down and be quiet....we will make it to our destination. I'm now taking the perilous route that includes the idea of a much slower system, a later phase, and inland event.....buckle up! Love it! Wouldn't we want an earlier phase though? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Love it! Wouldn't we want an earlier phase though? yes...my bad fixed it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 storm cancel... although the SREF spread gives us some hope lol hilarious how the models were pretty set on a solution for days and now we get this! gotta love model mayhem The Euro was all over the super slow and suppressed solution and i was too arrogant to accept it. It's only a matter of time before the GFS retreats. EDIT: i also see talk of phasing, but i don't see anything close to a good phase being modeled? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 to image below, but i expect the Sref to start to follow the gfs/euro/nam on having the more southern solution. Still many runs to go and cant get too high or too low on one run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 as the bus driver it's my duty to tell you to sit down and be quiet....we will make it to our destination. I'm now taking the perilous route that includes the idea of a much slower system, an earlier phase, and inland event.....buckle up! Main ingredient is the speed and the phase. If its faster I think we have a better shot, or we need to pray for a nw shift, and we get an inland runner. I'm riding the GFS train. On another note, I don't think I have ever seen you this determined lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chagrin Falls Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Just some musings and observations this morning... This is looking like the classic Euro SW/4 Corners area bias. I could be wrong here, but the thing that tripped me off was that it took the model 24 hours to move the vort from So. Cal to central New Mexico, and it's very fast to close it off after coming onshore. That's extremely slow when the flow (and thermal wind pattern) is basically due W-E (zonal). ALL mesoscale models and model members at that range push it right along. This general disagreement between the mesoscale modeling systems and the global models may be symptomatic. Another big thing I've noticed is the handling of the vorticity fields in the northern stream. There is going to be a chaotic pattern from the W. Coast over to the Canadian Prairies due to the disintegrating block, the amplifying ridge out west, and the trough and trough extension to the east. The globals seem eager to generate a good deal of vort energy between these features (as well as a shortwave cutting under the ridge in B. Col.) and when the ridge begins to seriously amplify, they in turn eject (or "flush") all of this relatively disorganized vort energy downstream to interact with the southern wave. The mesoscale modeling systems have shown no such scenario and are much more bearish on both the strength and phasing of this energy. Good write up. I enjoyed reading it and I appreciated the points you made. I agree with what you said about the European "southwest bias". I saw the ensemble mean was a bit further north and a bit faster, for what it is worth. In any event, if the series of amplifications will vacate the Southwest Corners area sooner, would phasing in the Midwest/continued amplification be more likely? The reason I ask is looking at the 06Z GFS within the first 72 hours it still holds on to a monster west Atlantic low. While that system is in a state of decay and will eventually move as the Greenland block begins to break and the NAO begins to turn less negative, it is still there. I'm trying to conceive a long wave pattern with a monster upper-air low in the west Atlantic and a developing low in the Midwest. That's a hard pattern for me to visualize. Just throwing some thoughts out there... I have written this storm off for Northeast Ohio. This is the AFD from OKX (Brookhaven, NY) which I thought was good: NW FLOW ALOFT INTO FRIDAY GIVES WAY TO WEAK RIDGING FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY. CLOSED 500 HPA LOW DIVES INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS BY SUNDAY MORNING...SUPPORTING A STRONG SURFACE LOW NEAR THE NC/VA CAPES. THE LOW THEN LIFTS NE...ALONG WITH THE 500 HPA LOW. THE CMC GLOBAL LIKELY IS TO FAR NW WITH ITS LOW TRACK...GIVEN THE STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE NEAR THE NORTH WALL OF THE GULF STREAM...BUT WITH MODEL CONSENSUS GROWING TOWARDS A TRACK INLAND OF THE N WALL...OPTED FOR A ECMWF TRACK WITH THE STORM...TAKING IT INSIDE THE 70/40 BENCHMARK...BUT PER ECMWF THERMAL FIELDS...JUST FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE TO KEEP ANY RAIN/SNOW MIX JUST OFFSHORE. BASED ON CMC TIMING...WOULD EXPECT THE LOW TO BE NEAR CAPE COD MONDAY MORNING. THE GFS HAS FLIPPED FLOPPED FROM ITS 18Z RUN GOING FROM THE LOW LINGERING OVER THE WESTERN CANADIAN MARITIMES...TO RIDGING BUILDING IN...AS THIS IS INCONSISTENT WITH A LIKELY CUTOFF LOW...OPTED FOR A SOLUTION CLOSER TO THE ECMWF MONDAY...WITH THE REGION IN CYCLONIC FLOW BEHIND THE STORM. In my opinion the GFS has done really poorly (in the medium range)with at least the last 4 short-wave amplifications affecting the eastern 1/2 of the nation. It's difficult for me to accept the output after about 72 hours or so with this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Main ingredient is the speed and the phase. If its faster I think we have a better shot, or we need to pray for a nw shift, and we get an inland runner. I'm riding the GFS train. On another note, I don't think I have ever seen you this determined lol the nam at 84 is pathetic looking to me....so im throwing it out lol. seriously there is virtually no ridging ahead of the sw in the east. I think we also need something stronger in the northern stream to come down and phase in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 the nam at 84 is pathetic looking to me....so im throwing it out lol. seriously there is virtually no ridging ahead of the sw in the east. I think we also need something stronger in the northern stream to come down and phase in. A few things I don't get, for one, typically when N and S streams phase close to us, we normally do good, but even on ensembles that show this scenario, it is just ehh. And wth happened to the north trend we have see with every single storm this year? What is making this one so much different than the others. Ill be shocked if both the gfs and euro hold their ground today. One or the other is going to give soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 A few things I don't get, for one, typically when N and S streams phase close to us, we normally do good, but even on ensembles that show this scenario, it is just ehh. And wth happened to the north trend we have see with every single storm this year? What is making this one so much different than the others. Ill be shocked if both the gfs and euro hold their ground today. One or the other is going to give soon. mets can correct me here, but our biggest issue has been the damn confluence over the ne and the stubborn vortex. Simply put we can't get a ridge of any decency to pop out ahead of this system Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 mets can correct me here, but our biggest issue has been the damn confluence over the ne and the stubborn vortex. Simply put we can't get a ridge of any decency to pop out ahead of this system Out to 24, coming on shore a tad further north, see if that continues through the run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 DTX on the Christmas storm: IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT MODELS HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME WITH PHASING SHORTWAVE ENERGY...SO THE BOOK IS FAR FROM WRITTEN REGARDING THIS SYSTEM. This is like giving a crack 'ho one more fix just to get them by a little longer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 gfs looks like its close to closing the low at 42, which means it may come in even slower Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Yeah, 12z NAM went all Euro. That's after the 06z NAM was north and stronger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 here's an illustration of one of my biggest concerns for my region regarding the xmas event. Basically a strong low emerges from the central rockies, begins to move east spreading a nice swath of snow to about Indiana, then dives southeast towards the southern TN valley where it begins redevelopment and carries up the coast. Leaving a large screw zone centered over ohio and points north. This happens from time to time....see Feb '06. Even January '96 had a similar track however we were saved due to the fact once it got to the coast it slowed down enough to throw a comma head all the way back here, (but if we had to count on the low bringing us moisture as it swung south of us, we wouldn't have gotten anything). then again, it could be a pdll event ....and of course lets not forget the other potential issues. It simply peters out and doesn' t phase. It phases earlier and tracks north. As of right now, i give cmh a 30% chance of a 3"+ snow event xmas. I think your map's gonna verify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Looks like the GFS says uncle and once again caves to the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 I think your map's gonna verify. Wow that screw zone is perfectly placed. Its ok. Most Mets around here called for the heavier snows after December so patience and it will come Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Looks like the GFS says uncle and once again caves to the Euro. Yep, although it isn't as strong. It is slower and farther south, heh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 I think your map's gonna verify. Wow that screw zone is perfectly placed. Its ok. Most Mets around here called for the heavier snows after December so patience and it will come assuming it verifies.... the victory is bittersweet btw, the gfs still slowing down the sw....pretty soon this will be the new years day storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Good write up. I enjoyed reading it and I appreciated the points you made. I agree with what you said about the European "southwest bias". I saw the ensemble mean was a bit further north and a bit faster, for what it is worth. In any event, if the series of amplifications will vacate the Southwest Corners area sooner, would phasing in the Midwest/continued amplification be more likely? The reason I ask is looking at the 06Z GFS within the first 72 hours it still holds on to a monster west Atlantic low. While that system is in a state of decay and will eventually move as the Greenland block begins to break and the NAO begins to turn less negative, it is still there. I'm trying to conceive a long wave pattern with a monster upper-air low in the west Atlantic and a developing low in the Midwest. That's a hard pattern for me to visualize. Just throwing some thoughts out there... I have written this storm off for Northeast Ohio. 4 days out and you have written this off? Granted NE Ohio would be on the far northern fringes... but I don't know about writing it off at this point. I'm still enjoying the ride on the Buckeye bus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Im about to pull the towel out of the closet here.. In hand and about to be thrown Having buckeye pull the bus over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Im about to pull the towel out of the closet here lolz I'm pretty much resigned to hoping it scoots harmlessly off the SE coast and doesn't turn up NE screwing up any chances down the pipe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ArmyGreens Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Prediction: Tomorrow all models will have the low over Toledo! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Im about to pull the towel out of the closet here Should have known the euro was right....again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Should have known the euro was right....again. Im gonna lol if euro is north now lol. Im off the bus towel is thrown. So tired of this bs garbage. GL to the ec then, back to normal life. Should've known it wouldn't work out. Done. Buckeye, just wreck the bus off the cliff and put us all out of our misery. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jhamps10 Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Im gonna lol if euro is north now lol it can't go much further south now can it???? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Im gonna lol if euro is north now lol It will say "fooled ya beetch!" to the gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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