December 24-25 Snowstorm

[illinois]

ILX making early call of 3 to 6 and PAH going with less than two across their entire area. While it is looking like a white Christmas, it sure doesn't look to be as white as I had first thought.

[dilly84]

Slower and weaker as it comes east. Good thing it's the 6z lol

[nzucker]

06z gfs looks good for you omahawx

Northern Missouri gets hammered on this run but good snows back to Omaha/Lincoln area and into Iowa and then ORD. Would be a pretty interesting storm for XMAS.

[JoMo]

Slower and weaker as it comes east. Good thing it's the 6z lol

There were some major changes with that energy over NE Canada as early as 84. It's closed and farther south, preventing anything from closing off north of the Lakes and possibly forcing it farther south which results in a faster phase and pretty much everything getting screwed up.

[dilly84]

There were some major changes with that energy over NE Canada as early as 84. It's closed and farther south, preventing anything from closing off north of the Lakes and possibly forcing it farther south which results in a faster phase and pretty much everything getting screwed up.

6z yesterday was similar, and it corrected itself again at 12z so we'll see. At this point it may be best for me to hope for a faster phase and a nw shift of 250 and just hope for an apps runner lol. But gfs still gives me 3-5 which, come on, would be great for Christmas Eve

[JoMo]

see if 12z still shows that

It may have a completely different solution. I'm not sure there will be a consensus until Weds at the earliest.

[dilly84]

It may have a completely different solution. I'm not sure there will be a consensus until Weds at the earliest.

Like baro said it depends on the pv. But I said same thing. Wednesday at the earliest.

[JoMo]

Like baro said it depends on the pv. But I said same thing. Wednesday at the earliest.

yep, the rest of the 06z GFS is different from the run 6 hours ago, and not just small perturbations either. This is gonna be a pain in the butt.

[Ajdos]

I'm never going to look at the models after hr 60, pointless. Seems like the models were much better last year, and years before. Not sure if that update has to do anything with some models being so inconsistent..Kinda of irritating. I remember slights shift, but the models were always consistent. (XCPT THAT TRIPLE PHSER BACK IN 2008) lol.

[Amos83]

Not trolling guys I wil be in S. Illinois over Christmas so my interest are here for now......

I'm not ready to buy into the far southern solution the Euro is screaming. The timing of the northern and southern energy has to be just about perfect for it to dive that much. I just have a hard time believing the eventual track is not more north. If I had to make a bet I would say that over time we will start to see the Euro inch north and the GFS inch south evenutally finding a middle of the road solution. It also probably wont be until midday or later Wednesday before we see that because by then the models will have a better handle on the timing of the both pieces of energy.

Thought I would mention that I'm not trolling. I will be in S. Illinois over Christmas so my interest are here for now......

The above comments are just my two cents...

[A-L-E-K]

Trends are becoming pretty clear that this thing is going to blow its load well southwest of hear and not do anything much again until it reaches the coast. Might be able to some light snow squeezed out in the cold air and LE is still possible, but this doesn't look like a major event for most of the middle of the country.

[Tim from Springfield (IL)]

Per the 120 hr. GFS total snowfall map (significantly downgraded since this morning): looks like an I-72 special in Illinois (Quincy, Springfield, Decatur, Champaign in line for at least 8 inches, and 10+ in eastern Missouri extending into Pike County, IL. With the areas around Peoria and east of St. Louis (including along I-70) in only the 6-8 range. Earlier GFS total snow forecasts had Peoria northward in line for at least a foot of snow.

http://wxcaster.com/...3?STATIONID=ILX

Now the latest GFS 120 hr. map looks like most of the heavier snowfall action will be in Indiana and in eastern Missouri--with perhaps only 5-6 (and some isolated 6+ inch amounts) in central/western Illinois. I like snow, but I'll be traveling for the holidays, so IMO the lesser the snow forecast, the better.

http://wxcaster.com/gis-gfs-snow-overlays.php3?STATIONID=ILX

[A-L-E-K]

Now the latest GFS 120 hr. map looks like most of the heavier snowfall action will be in Indiana and in eastern Missouri--with perhaps only 5-6 (and some isolated 6+ inch amounts) in central/western Illinois. I like snow, but I'll be traveling for the holidays, so IMO the lesser the snow forecast, the better.

http://wxcaster.com/...3?STATIONID=ILX

Those maps aren't the gospel, especially at this range. I'll say this, if Central Indiana and Missouri do well, Central Illinois will do well. Right now a dual maxima situation is looking possible with decent amounts further south and west with the healtheir vort max and then another band somehwere north of there where redisual moisture get rung out with good ratios.

[IWXwx]

Trends are becoming pretty clear that this thing is going to blow its load well southwest of hear and not do anything much again until it reaches the coast. Might be able to some light snow squeezed out in the cold air and LE is still possible, but this doesn't look like a major event for most of the middle of the country.

Thanks for harshing my mellow.

[A-L-E-K]

Thanks for harshing my mellow.

The GFS has been showing up towards .5" near you and I, but i'm having a hard time buying it. Looking at the 700 mb maps, moisture really gets shunted well to our south and west and the once mighty vort just gets crushed. This is where I'd normally say there's plenty of time for corrections back north, but i don't see anything to indicate that's likely.

[buckeye]

models are still clueless....

lol at nocraps. 00z had some crazy 950 low on the northeast coast, 06 has an open wave scooting out to sea

[buckeye]

looks like the 9z sref is taking the southern route as well

[buckeye]

looks like the 9z sref is taking the southern route as well

[A-L-E-K]

models are still clueless....

lol at nocraps. 00z had some crazy 950 low on the northeast coast, 06 has an open wave scooting out to sea

looks like the 9z sref is taking the southern route as well

These could probably be combined. The models aren't useless. I'm not sure why the 18z Ukie, NOGAPS, Japanese, Korean and Ethiopian ever get talked about. The SREFs, GFS and Euro all combine to paint a pretty good picture of what's likely to happen and what may happen.

[buckeye]

These could probably be combined. The models aren't useless. I'm not sure why the 18z Ukie, NOGAPS, Japanese, Korean and Ethiopian ever get talked about. The SREFs, GFS and Euro all combine to paint a pretty good picture of what's likely to happen and what may happen.

Hey alek, maybe we should do each other a favor and put one another on ignore..... that way i won't seriously respond to all your silly valueless tongue and cheek posts , and you won't feel obligated to do the same to mine.

[Chicago WX]

These could probably be combined. The models aren't useless. I'm not sure why the 18z Ukie, NOGAPS, Japanese, Korean and Ethiopian ever get talked about. The SREFs, GFS and Euro all combine to paint a pretty good picture of what's likely to happen and what may happen.

Link to the Ethiopian?

Seriously though, agree that the cards looked stacked against anything significant hitting a good chunk of the MW with this system. Some light snows, sure. But still something to keep an eye on.

[buckeye]

nam way weaker with sw at 54

[janetjanet998]

nam through hr54 weaker with the high more south over the northern plains

looks like supresssion city coming up

[csnavywx]

Just some musings and observations this morning...

This is looking like the classic Euro SW/4 Corners area bias. I could be wrong here, but the thing that tripped me off was that it took the model 24 hours to move the vort from So. Cal to central New Mexico, and it's very fast to close it off after coming onshore. That's extremely slow when the flow (and thermal wind pattern) is basically due W-E (zonal). ALL mesoscale models and model members at that range push it right along. This general disagreement between the mesoscale modeling systems and the global models may be symptomatic.

Another big thing I've noticed is the handling of the vorticity fields in the northern stream. There is going to be a chaotic pattern from the W. Coast over to the Canadian Prairies due to the disintegrating block, the amplifying ridge out west, and the trough and trough extension to the east. The globals seem eager to generate a good deal of vort energy between these features (as well as a shortwave cutting under the ridge in B. Col.) and when the ridge begins to seriously amplify, they in turn eject (or "flush") all of this relatively disorganized vort energy downstream to interact with the southern wave. The mesoscale modeling systems have shown no such scenario and are much more bearish on both the strength and phasing of this energy.

[jdrenken]

Look at the spread fill to the North though on the SREF.

[A-L-E-K]

nam way weaker with sw at 54

Also way slower to eject, maybe the euro was right there after all, why do i ever doubt that model.

Right now I think we're going to see a band of light accums from northern MO, far southern IA stretching ESE towards southern OH and tapering as you head east. As for the coastal, i doubt it come west enough to give you snow, but i haven't been paying attention.

[buckeye]

Just some musings and observations this morning...

This is looking like the classic Euro SW/4 Corners area bias. I could be wrong here, but the thing that tripped me off was that it took the model 24 hours to move the vort from So. Cal to central New Mexico, and it's very fast to close it off after coming onshore. That's extremely slow when the flow (and thermal wind pattern) is basically due W-E (zonal). ALL mesoscale models and model members at that range push it right along. This general disagreement between the mesoscale modeling systems and the global models may be symptomatic.

Another big thing I've noticed is the handling of the vorticity fields in the northern stream. There is going to be a chaotic pattern from the W. Coast over to the Canadian Prairies due to the disintegrating block, the amplifying ridge out west, and the trough and trough extension to the east. The globals seem eager to generate a good deal of vort energy between these features (as well as a shortwave cutting under the ridge in B. Col.) and when the ridge begins to seriously amplify, they in turn eject (or "flush") all of this relatively disorganized vort energy downstream to interact with the southern wave. The mesoscale modeling systems have shown no such scenario and are much more bearish on both the strength and phasing of this energy.

I saw someone mention in another thread the euro ensembles were all over the place, from OTS, to coastals, to inland cutters

[A-L-E-K]

lolz

[michsnowfreak]

DTX on the Christmas storm: IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT MODELS HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME WITH PHASING SHORTWAVE ENERGY...SO THE BOOK IS FAR FROM WRITTEN REGARDING THIS SYSTEM.

[MichMedic]

DTX on the Christmas storm: IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT MODELS HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME WITH PHASING SHORTWAVE ENERGY...SO THE BOOK IS FAR FROM WRITTEN REGARDING THIS SYSTEM.

I'll be watching....