JoMo Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Euro is a bit quicker at 48 bringing the energy to where the GFS has it in S Cali at same time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Sorry if this has already been mentioned/posted, but the 21z SREF is still pretty juicy and further north... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Euro is a bit quicker at 48 bringing the energy to where the GFS has it in S Cali at same time. The fact that it has been slow has been one of the biggest problems with the euro that last few runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Euro @ 72 has 500 MB energy centered over Central NM while the GFS has it along the NM/TX border at same time. So Euro slightly slower. tombo: hr 84 has a sub 1016 low over northern tx lgt precip from mn to tx...mod precip over tx and ok the s/w is a lot stronger than 12z so far hr 90 sub 1016 low over dallas lgt precip iowa south to tx...mod precip eastern tx and ok Euro is still very different with a strong 500 MB vort over N TX prolly near Dallas @ 96. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 0z Gfs give Buckeye, Jay, JB, and myself 6-7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Geesh, Euro is way south again. It really does not want to give up that south track does it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 108hrs: 1012mb SLP in the NO area. Best precip in LA/MS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Dilly, no one cares. The euro gives you nothing, it's a non event for most of the MW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Geesh, Euro is way south again. It really does not want to give up that south track does it? well one of these models are going to have to give at some point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Dilly, no one cares. The euro gives you nothing, it's a non event for most of the MW. Okay, loud mouth, apparent Euro hugger. Proves a point of why there needs to be a thread for the OV, and one for the mw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 108hrs: 1012mb SLP in the NO area. Best precip in LA/MS. 114hrs: Sub 1012mb SLP over the Florida Panhandle/Northern Gulf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayPSU Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 114hrs: Sub 1012mb SLP over the Florida Panhandle/Northern Gulf. Sounds like the Ukie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 I'm being a realist. The euro nailed the MW storm last time. EURO has the low in FL at 120. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMidwest Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Piers Corbyn said East Coast Storm for Christmas, comon now, Anybody see the Ner Years Eve/Day Threat for the MW? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Dilly, no one cares. The euro gives you nothing, it's a non event for most of the MW. Come on man, no need for the hostility. No harm in everyone discussing the possibilities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Funny how the models were unanimously in agreement for several days on a strong storm further north. What were they seeing then that they aren't now? I think they will revert back eventually to a stronger and further north track. How many times have we seen models lose a storm for a day or two, only to revert back to the original thinking later on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 I'm being a realist. The euro nailed the MW storm last time. EURO has the low in FL at 120. Well we'll see, because every NWS AFD I read today disagrees with the euro and are favoring the gfs with the faster solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 My call is nothing up here. Chicago is next on the list for nothing. Pretty soon I won't be worried about the wife's flight in to Indy sat morning. This baby is http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nKxyoud_c-E Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Here is my guess. I posted in 0Z discussion 10 mins ago but they are too crazy over the incoming Euro. A lot of interesting discussion and analysis here. I haven't been completely up to date on this one, but doing a quick analysis, it seems the potential for a good east coast hit seems to hinge the most on how the northern stream eventually phases with the PV Anomaly near the Gulf States. The 0Z GFS essentially treats the PV as an "ejecting" S/W trough which incites cyclogenesis ahead of the main trough which develops a strong leading edge cyclone with cold air advection turning towards the east coast as opposed to heading southward towards the GOM. The other solution favored by tonights CMC, the ECMWF, and to a degree, by the 12Z GFS, is to phase the southern PV and "absorb" it into the northern stream which then enhances the strength of CAA southward towards the GOM. This in turn develops a much deeper upper trough and eventually a much more energetic baroclinic wave up the east coast. One thing I will say regarding the solutions is the amount of CAA all solutions develop in the low levels. It is difficult for equatorward low level cold air to suddenly shift direction and head eastward as in the 0Z GFS. It would take a sufficiently intense PV to initiate strong enough cyclogenesis to result in an eastward displacement of that low level cold air and the eventual northern cyclone the GFS develops. While the 0Z GFS certainly could be a valid solution, I find the deeper trough solutions more realistic given all model guidance have trended towards a much weaker southern stream PV Anomaly. As a result, I find a solution which results in continued CAA and a deeper developing trough more realistic then the oddball northern cyclone the GFS currently has. A weaker PV Anomaly, once phased, won't incite sufficiently strong cyclogenesis to shunt the low level CAA eastward but strong enough to enhance the continued equatorward flow of CAA, thus developing the trough deeper before ejecting the leading wave along the Gulf Stream. In terms of the GFS, the 12Z solutions seems more realistic given the circumstances. That is how I read it, at least. With regards to our region, I find the latest CMC, the 12Z ECM, and the 12Z GFS more realistic than the latest 0Z GFS. Tough call though...making broad forecast here, not a region specific one. Haven't seen the 0Z ECMWF yet, sounds south though, but may end up OTS. Forget it, definitely not OTS, sounds like a crippler to I-95 again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 I'm being a realist. The euro nailed the MW storm last time. EURO has the low in FL at 120. Yeah, that's what I'm wondering about. In that storm the Euro was all by itself (track across Iowaish) while nearly every other model had a track much farther south. The Euro won in the end. The difference between the Euro and the other models this time is that the phase comes much later on the Euro. The end result is going to be an east coast storm no matter what model you look at though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 lol....i see the euro is now stuck at hr 144 for the historic coastal....what's this now? 3 runs that it occurs at 144? Someone should dub this the mirage storm for them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 I wasn't trying to be harsh or anything Dilly. Sorry if it came out like that. All I am saying is I would believe the EURO way more then any other model. EURO was all alone with the north solution in the first big storm here. GFS/GEM/UKIE etc were all in KY/TN/GA in that area, and the EURO took the low to Chicago even 120+ hours out. Guess what solution won out in the end? It's the same situation, except the EURO sucks for the MW while GFS/GEM give snow to some of the posters here. I wouldn't get excited at all until within 72 hours out, or until the EURO shifts with the rest of the guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Euro is often too slow right? That is it's issue maybe....Tough forecast for sure. The GEM came a bit back tonight so the Euro appears to be on it's own except the ukie I guess has a crazy GOM track or whatever... Last time I ditched the Euro at this range (that MW storm a couple weeks ago) I got majorly burned so i hate doing it again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 I wasn't trying to be harsh or anything Dilly. Sorry if it came out like that. All I am saying is I would believe the EURO way more then any other model. EURO was all alone with the north solution in the first big storm here. GFS/GEM/UKIE etc were all in KY/TN/GA in that area, and the EURO took the low to Chicago even 120+ hours out. Guess what solution won out in the end? It's the same situation, except the EURO sucks for the MW while GFS/GEM give snow to some of the posters here. I wouldn't get excited at all until within 72 hours out, or until the EURO shifts with the rest of the guidance. I will say one thing. The north 0Z GFS seems highly unlikely owing to the amount of low level CAA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Even though the Euro has done very well lately, this is a totally different type of storm system than what we've been used to seeing as of late. It seems that certain models handle different storm types better than others. Since the Euro seems almost ridiculously south, I'm not quite buying it at this point. Especially with the baroclinic zone further north. My gut feeling places this storm further to the north, as more of a compromise between the Euro and the GFS/GEM. The southern Midwest would really do well with that compromise IMHO. It's all just fun speculation of course at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 the euro still has snow here, can't say how much but I would be surprised if it was over .25 qpf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 I will say one thing. The north 0Z GFS seems highly unlikely owing to the amount of low level CAA. CAA? Unless I'm missing something the CAA doesn't seem overly impressive to me. Looks okay, but I don't see anything barbaric. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jhamps10 Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Even though the Euro has done very well lately, this is a totally different type of storm system than what we've been used to seeing as of late. It seems that certain models handle different storm types better than others. Since the Euro seems almost ridiculously south, I'm not quite buying it at this point. Especially with the baroclinic zone further north. My gut feeling places this storm further to the north, as more of a compromise between the Euro and the GFS/GEM. The southern Midwest would really do well with that compromise IMHO. It's all just fun speculation of course at this point. sounds very realistic to me IMO... maybe closer to the GFS on the compromise... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 I will say one thing. The north 0Z GFS seems highly unlikely owing to the amount of low level CAA. How does the Euro handle phasing? Do you find it to be better than the GFS and GGEM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 pretty soon this will be the new years eve storm. Lets see, ggem has a low heading out of the southeast up the coast at 120....im starting to wonder if us folks here in the ov should start rooting for the ggem and euro to begin a trend nw and turn this into an app runner, seems like there's plenty of time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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