TheWeatherPimp Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 I could live with this run. Solid 3-6 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Omahawx Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 This storm looks like a complete joke on the gfs. With how strong this storm is in california I just cant believe it will be this much weaker in the plains Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Nice hit for buckeye. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 The problem I have is I don't see how the hell it does that. Weaker block? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 This run actually turns out better for us central ohio people. must be due to the fact that it intensifies rapidly to a powerhouse 1012 low as it hits the apps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayPSU Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 must be due to the fact that it intensifies rapidly to a powerhouse 1012 low as it hits the apps. LOL...look at the pathetic 300mb maps. Doesn't really get going until 120hours. I don't see how we get that 3-6" out of that but what do I know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 LOL...look at the pathetic 300mb maps. Doesn't really get going until 120hours. I don't see how we get that 3-6" out of that but what do I know. Same way I feel, but at this point I will take it. GFS has consistently raised the qpf for us for 4 straight runs now. Would be nice for the euro to move north now, so we could get some consistency. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 im trying..I wish I knew a lot more...this is hard stuff. Man, you've come a long way just from last winter...I'd nominate you for most improved poster... One thing you're not anymore (not really saying you were one lol) is a wish casting weenie. You really have left the IYBY homerism and emotions at the door and are looking at things at more of a whole and not letting it get you down if you do miss out on a event. GL with the xmas eve storm! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDemon Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Looks good to me! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Man, I was hoping the low would curl back inland at 126 but it seems to really like that coastal thermal gradient. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Man, you've come a long way just from last winter...I'd nominate you for most improved poster... One thing you're not anymore (not really saying you were one lol) is a wish casting weenie. You really have left the IYBY homerism and emotions at the door and are looking at things at more of a whole and not letting it get you down if you do miss out on a event. GL with the xmas eve storm! Yeah, I think its getting easier on all of us...it probably also helps that there has been non stop action now. Well honestly, once you can read a H5 chart...which isn't saying much the writing is on the wall. becuase there is no way around it. It might be easier on this storm because it keeps saying I am getting a winter storm warning event. and we have trended from all ice with a tiny bit of snow, actually rain and ice and light flurries to 5-10 inches pending which model you use. thank though I deeply appreciate it. The last thing I want is to sound like a know it all, I don't know anything compared to these mets. But I want to try and throw stuff out there and contribute. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jhamps10 Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 LOL at this rate instead of Ohio being the Screw zone it might be here with the way it shears out the energy like that, although I'd take a guess and say that in real life it's not going to dry up as fast as the models are showing. will it be weaker as you head east, yep but I'm not buying this STL getting 6" whereas here in flora were lucky to get 3-4". something tells me we may be in the losing it pattern for it to come back right before the event starts. BUT none the less if it stays like this i'll take it, but I'll be hellish jelous of STL, if it's not ice storms, it's snow sweet spots they steal from me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 LOL at this rate instead of Ohio being the Screw zone it might be here with the way it shears out the energy like that, although I'd take a guess and say that in real life it's not going to dry up as fast as the models are showing. will it be weaker as you head east, yep but I'm not buying this STL getting 6" whereas here in flora were lucky to get 3-4". something tells me we may be in the losing it pattern for it to come back right before the event starts. BUT none the less if it stays like this i'll take it, but I'll be hellish jelous of STL, if it's not ice storms, it's snow sweet spots they steal from me OSUMetstud said this in the main forum: It looks like the GFS completely diminishes the southern shortwave between 84 and 102 hours. That doesn't seem reasonable IMO. The system becomes dominated by northern stream energy by the time it starts to really blow up. HM kind of agreed: Excellent point. Things are still a little too fast as well, per the other models. If the STJ s/w stays a defined feature, this will hit everyone and not just NJ/northeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jhamps10 Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 OSUMetstud said this in the main forum: It looks like the GFS completely diminishes the southern shortwave between 84 and 102 hours. That doesn't seem reasonable IMO. The system becomes dominated by northern stream energy by the time it starts to really blow up. HM kind of agreed: Excellent point. Things are still a little too fast as well, per the other models. If the STJ s/w stays a defined feature, this will hit everyone and not just NJ/northeast. exactly, something just does not look right to me on this, however with that said it's shown this now what since the 6Z run this morning, so I don't know... I'm going with my gut here and I'm thinking we don't see that super fast weakening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Nice lake signal on the qpf there from the low res GFS. Maybe another efficient inland penetrator although it will be hard to top the last one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 OSUMetstud said this in the main forum: It looks like the GFS completely diminishes the southern shortwave between 84 and 102 hours. That doesn't seem reasonable IMO. The system becomes dominated by northern stream energy by the time it starts to really blow up. HM kind of agreed: Excellent point. Things are still a little too fast as well, per the other models. If the STJ s/w stays a defined feature, this will hit everyone and not just NJ/northeast. Pd2 was last I remember a storm hitting nearly everyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 GGEM looks a lot like the GFS I think. Maybe a bit farther north with the 500 MB energy at 84, it also craps out the precip as it moves east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 GGEM looks a lot like the GFS I think. Maybe a bit farther north with the 500 MB energy at 84, it also craps out the precip as it moves east. At least its getting in line with the gfs we can worry about it shearing out later lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 At least its getting in line with the gfs we can worry about it shearing out later lol. Yeah the later panels do not look good for you.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayPSU Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Yeah the later panels do not look good for you.. It's actually a hell of a lot better than 12Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Gem has about .17-.18 QPF here in MM...would be 7-9 inches.. this would be the biggest wide spread snow storm in a decade here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Don't look horrible. At least were in the green. I'm riding the only model that has stayed consistent now for 4 days for us. The GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayPSU Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 East coast weenie land is going to explode whn they see the 144 hr ggem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 East coast weenie land is going to explode whn they see the 144 hr ggem. It already did. Hmmm, GFS ensembles may be interesting and farther south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 It already did. Hmmm, GFS ensembles may be interesting and farther south. 1/2 hr euro north or south? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 1/2 hr euro north or south? 978 superbomb over Arkansas. 2-3 feet of snow from Minnesota to Arkansas and points east to off the coast. I have no idea, It may come north to more of a consensus with everything else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Omahawx Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 The eastern us snow weenies are def foaming at the mouth over the gem Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 The eastern us snow weenies are def foaming at the mouth over the gem yeah, i would be to though if it showed that for us. still time for the track to change and give us 3-6" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 The eastern us snow weenies are def foaming at the mouth over the gem did hm go into full blown weenie mode again? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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