Ajdos Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 i suspect the first subtle signs of a re-emerging north trend will begin tonite, and hasten tomorrow. By wednesday we'll be back to square one with a juicy bowling ball tracking thru the lower OV. We will have come around full circle and the timing will be perfect. mark my words. Your words in gods ears. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 i suspect the first subtle signs of a re-emerging north trend will begin tonite, and hasten tomorrow. By wednesday we'll be back to square one with a juicy bowling ball tracking thru the lower OV. We will have come around full circle and the timing will be perfect. mark my words. I would have to lend some agreement towards your theory. I'm not sure over the years how many systems I've watched the EURO start out with a bowling ball track through the Lower Ohio River Valley, then begin to hang energy back and track way South and then come right back North to it's original track. 2007 and 2008 were notorious for these type of problems with the EURO. We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 How often does I-70 in Mo and IL get blasted and it just misses Indy and Ohio to the south? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Rev it up, but don't take the plunge yet. I like the placement of the H5/H7 low on the 18z GFS. Well, looks like the GFS does a half-assed version of what it did yesterday at 18z. An attempt at a phase between the primary s/w and that ancillary piece dropping out of the Canadian Prairies around 96. Overall, doesn't look like the phase is successful (I can still discern two discrete s/w between 96 and 120) but it at least demonstrates what needs to go right for a further north storm track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 18z GFS back north with a 4-8" event here. We will continue to see models go back and forth with this. EAX did do a nice job with their AFD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 i suspect the first subtle signs of a re-emerging north trend will begin tonite, and hasten tomorrow. By wednesday we'll be back to square one with a juicy bowling ball tracking thru the lower OV. We will have come around full circle and the timing will be perfect. mark my words. Wouldn't shock me...besides wouldn't it take just a lower-pressure storm in the plains to help it move slightly northward...something like the models had yesterday. Seems plausible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 i suspect the first subtle signs of a re-emerging north trend will begin tonite, and hasten tomorrow. By wednesday we'll be back to square one with a juicy bowling ball tracking thru the lower OV. We will have come around full circle and the timing will be perfect. mark my words. Ok Stebo, we've found our bus driver. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 18z GFS throws my weenie a bone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jhamps10 Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Its frustrating seeing the GFS give us the perfect track only to have minimal precip to work with when it gets here. damn block, anyone have a nuke we can shoot at it? lol and I am holding you to those words lol. yeah but then if you nuke that block you'd have the storm going through minnesota... what do you want, another MSP special, or a good track with 1" of snow for you????? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 How often does I-70 in Mo and IL get blasted and it just misses Indy and Ohio to the south? Not very often, as most winter storms have a slight East/Northeast component, so most hits in your area are hits here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ArmyGreens Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Ok Stebo, we've found our bus driver. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 yeah but then if you nuke that block you'd have the storm going through minnesota... what do you want, another MSP special, or a good track with 1" of snow for you????? How about something in between to areas that rarely get a good snow storm. Detroit has had some decent snowstorms over the years but I dont remember the last time a storm dumped (8"+) on indianapolis, columbus, or parts of southern illinois. Even toledo for that matter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ArmyGreens Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 How about something in between to areas that rarely get a good snow storm. Detroit has had some decent snowstorms over the years but I dont remember the last time a storm dumped (8"+) on indianapolis, columbus, or parts of southern illinois. Even toledo for that matter. I heard 2008 was a nasty one here for Columbus, but that was before I arrived. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 yeah but then if you nuke that block you'd have the storm going through minnesota... what do you want, another MSP special, or a good track with 1" of snow for you????? Honestly, I'd rather have it warm, than cold and 1" of snow. I really could care less about a storm if it isnt giving 3" or more. pick up a ruler. 1" isnt even enough to cover up the grass, so what is the point? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Ok Stebo, we've found our bus driver. i can drive a stick too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 18z GFS throws my weenie a bone. i almost reported this post Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 18z dgex Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayPSU Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Its frustratng seeing the GFS give us the perfect track only to have minimal precip to work with when it gets here. damn block, anyone have a nuke we can shoot at it? lol and I am holding you to those words lol. First of all, track of the upper air features is most important at this range. Second, the pro mets always say it's a bad idea to worry about the qpf maps at this range. 3rd, the 18Z GFS not only is a better track for us than 12Z, it did bump up our qpf totals anyway. It gave us .4 at 12Z and now it gives us .5 at 18Z for a nice 5-6" event on Christmas. Be happy, my friend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 First of all, track of the upper air features is most important at this range. Second, the pro mets always say it's a bad idea to worry about the qpf maps at this range. 3rd, the 18Z GFS not only is a better track for us than 12Z, it did bump up our qpf totals anyway. It gave us .4 at 12Z and now it gives us .5 at 18Z for a nice 5-6" event on Christmas. Be happy, my friend. actually close to giving 5-7" But lets not forget where the euro and gem stand right now.. How does the 18z ukie look buckeye? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbcmh81 Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 How about something in between to areas that rarely get a good snow storm. Detroit has had some decent snowstorms over the years but I dont remember the last time a storm dumped (8"+) on indianapolis, columbus, or parts of southern illinois. Even toledo for that matter. 10.4" 2/15-2/16/2010 9.9" 2/5-2/6-2010 20.5" 3/7-3/8/2008 We also had about 7.5" with the storm in late January, 2009. We've done okay in the last couple of years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 How about something in between to areas that rarely get a good snow storm. Detroit has had some decent snowstorms over the years but I dont remember the last time a storm dumped (8"+) on indianapolis, columbus, or parts of southern illinois. Even toledo for that matter. Actually, just about all midwest cities have been seeing more 6"+ storms than normal in recent years. And while Detroit has led the pack in those storms, all the cities except Indy have had an 8"+ storm in 2010 (Indys last was Jan 2009)...and ironically Detroit has gone the longest since an official 12"+ snowstorm (their last being Jan 22, 2005). Heres a look at all the 6"+ storms for each city the last 5 years (I did 5 years bc thats while I know DTWs climate like the back of my hand, I dont know the rest, and f6 only goes back to Dec 2005). DETROIT, MI - 6+ snowstorms December 2005 - December 2010 6.3" - Dec 12, 2010 6.9" - Feb 21/22, 2010 8.6" - Feb 9/10, 2010 7.2" - Apr 5/6, 2009 7.0" - Jan 9/10, 2009 7.9" - Dec 19, 2008 7.3" - Mar 21/22, 2008 7.5" - Mar 4/5, 2008 9.0" - Dec 15/16, 2007 8.5" - Feb 13/14, 2007 6.2" - Dec 14/15, 2005 6.2" - Dec 8/9, 2005 TOLEDO, OH - 6+ snowstorms December 2005 - December 2010 12.1" - Feb 9/10, 2010 11.9" - Jan 9/10, 2009 10.8" - Jan 27/28, 2009 8.8" - Feb 25/26, 2008 6.3" - Dec 15/16, 2007 8.3" - Feb 13/14, 2007 6.2" - Dec 14/15, 2005 9.2" - Dec 8/9, 2005 COLUMBUS, OH - 6+ snowstorms December 2005 - December 2010 9.9" - Feb 5/6, 2010 10.4" - Feb 15/16, 2010 7.4" - Jan 27/28, 2009 6.3" - Jan 13/14, 2009 20.5" - Mar 7/8, 2008 6.2" - Feb 13/14, 2007 INDIANAPOLIS, IN - 6+ snowstorms December 2005 - December 2010 6.3" - Feb 15/16, 2010 6.1" - Feb 5/6, 2010 12.3" - Jan 27/28, 2009 8.1" - Feb 13/14, 2007 7.7" - Dec 8, 2007 **************************** In the past 5 years... 6"+ snowstorms Detroit- 12 Toledo- 8 Columbus- 6 Indianapolis- 5 8"+ snowstorms Detroit- 3 Toledo- 6 Columbus- 3 Indianapolis- 3 LAST 12" snowstorm: Detroit: Jan 22, 2005 Toledo: Feb 9/10, 2010 Columbus: Mar 7/8, 2008 Indianapolis: Jan 27/28, 2009 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 10.4" 2/15-2/16/2010 9.9" 2/5-2/6-2010 20.5" 3/7-3/8/2008 We also had about 7.5" with the storm in late January, 2009. We've done okay in the last couple of years. From what I remember a few of those were from clippers that were sort of surprises. I guess a snowstorm is a snowstorm but it's been awhile since theres been a cross country storm like this one that delivers for indy toledo, etc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 From what I remember a few of those were from clippers that were sort of surprises. I guess a snowstorm is a snowstorm but it's been awhile since theres been a cross country storm like this one that delivers for indy toledo, etc Oh, you meant to all at once. That I would have to agree with. Its not often all get to share in the pleasure of the same storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Actually, just about all midwest cities have been seeing more 6"+ storms than normal in recent years. And while Detroit has led the pack in those storms, all the cities except Indy have had an 8"+ storm in 2010 (Indys last was Jan 2009)...and ironically Detroit has gone the longest since an official 12"+ snowstorm (their last being Jan 22, 2005). Heres a look at all the 6"+ storms for each city the last 5 years (I did 5 years bc thats while I know DTWs climate like the back of my hand, I dont know the rest, and f6 only goes back to Dec 2005). Wow I didnt realize detroit has had less big snows than toledo. I guess being 50 miles north of the city I have done a lot better with quite a few 10" plus storms. If this storm can keep its act together it looks good for indy and other areas to the SW that dont see snow as much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 From what I remember a few of those were from clippers that were sort of surprises. I guess a snowstorm is a snowstorm but it's been awhile since theres been a cross country storm like this one that delivers for indy toledo, etc My favorite cross country storm was pd2 lol. sweet storm here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbcmh81 Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Actually, just about all midwest cities have been seeing more 6"+ storms than normal in recent years. And while Detroit has led the pack in those storms, all the cities except Indy have had an 8"+ storm in 2010 (Indys last was Jan 2009)...and ironically Detroit has gone the longest since an official 12"+ snowstorm (their last being Jan 22, 2005). Heres a look at all the 6"+ storms for each city the last 5 years (I did 5 years bc thats while I know DTWs climate like the back of my hand, I dont know the rest, and f6 only goes back to Dec 2005). COLUMBUS, OH - 6+ snowstorms December 2005 - December 2010 9.9" - Feb 5/6, 2010 10.4" - Feb 15/16, 2010 7.4" - Jan 27/28, 2009 20.5" - Mar 7/8, 2008 6.2" - Feb 13/14, 2007 You missed the mid-January clipper for Columbus: January 13-14, 2009: 6.3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 18z GFS throws my weenie a bone. i almost reported this post Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 From what I remember a few of those were from clippers that were sort of surprises. I guess a snowstorm is a snowstorm but it's been awhile since theres been a cross country storm like this one that delivers for indy toledo, etc 12/22/04 might've come close. I know there was a sharp gradient in OH though and not sure what Columbus got. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 18z dgex That map is as if Hoosier and I drew that up for LAF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbcmh81 Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 12/22/04 might've come close. I know there was a sharp gradient in OH though and not sure what Columbus got. Just over 6" of snow followed by about an inch of ice. One of the worst ice-storms in Ohio history, actually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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