The_Global_Warmer Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Keep hearing about this block in quebec that could will make this storm move more west to east and not more NW. The NAO is weakening and todays storm is tracking well further north of where the xmas storm is displayed on the models. Granted todays storm is weakening (maybe because of the block or the ec storm), but nonetheless it is well north. The models 2 days ago had todays storm moving more SE and now its moving NW. The xmas storm looks to be stronger but somehow it's going to be forced south but this current weaker storm is able to move NW? Perhaps I am missing something or maybe I should just accept that every storm is diferent and reacts to the atmosphere differently. The nam is pretty strong and more north then some...the block you see will force the system to weaken and move ESE eventually.. Look at the H7 charts and you can see the Moisture being shunted. the NAM is pretty far north, the GEM and EURO are stronger with the block. the block will have move out of the way for the storm to track into Ohio. does anyone have maps of this from days ago it in Ohio? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimChgo9 Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 I think I'll just sit by and watch for now. I think we can put in the front of our minds that, for now, the way things look, this might not be our storm, at least anyone north of I-70 or so..... Unless of course the blocking gets shoved back a bit, and allows that storm to come north. How likely that is, I have no idea, and any comments on it from me would be highly uninformed speculation... There are just too many dynamics interacting here, and it confuses me, so I will just read everyone else's analysis for now.... And then, at the proper time insert my "two inches of slop" comment, just to remain consistent.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 with the GOM connection we would see precip over MO, IL and eastward explode. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 IT APPEARS THAT THE NORTHERN STREAM OF THE JET SHOULD REMAIN A BIT STRONGER THAN THE SOUTHERN STREAM. THUS...FEEL THAT THE GEM/EURO SOLUTION IS TOO FAR SOUTH AND HAVE GONE MORE THE 12Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN FOR A TRACK SOLUTION AT THIS TIME. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Kansas City had a weathergasmic discussion this afternoon. (mention of thunder-ice) and a lot of technical stuff baro_instability would salivate over. http://www.wunderground.com/DisplayDisc.asp?DiscussionCode=EAX&StateCode=MO&SafeCityName=Kansas_City Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Kansas City had a weathergasmic discussion this afternoon. (mention of thunder-ice) and a lot of technical stuff baro_instability would salivate over. http://www.wundergro...ame=Kansas_City would be even more orgasmic if it was cold enough for all snow..would be something fierce. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 From reading numerous AFD's it seems that most are going with the GFS ensemble members, stating that the Euro is too slow/weak, and the gem is basically too far south. Im just lost. I dont know what to believe anymore. I feel like a robot being fed too much information and I am going to explode. Kinda like this http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sLYFcuCMgSw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hoosierwx Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 LOL. I guess you disagree. Like you I'm still watching. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LizardMafia Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 From reading numerous AFD's it seems that most are going with the GFS ensemble members, stating that the Euro is too slow/weak, and the gem is basically too far south. Im just lost. I dont know what to believe anymore. I feel like a robot being fed too much information and I am going to explode. Kinda like this http://www.youtube.c...h?v=sLYFcuCMgSw A little bit of patience goes a long way.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 LOL. I guess you disagree. Like you I'm still watching. See my post above lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted December 20, 2010 Author Share Posted December 20, 2010 Here is part of the Hazardous Weather Outlook from the National Weather Service in Wilmington OH... OHZ026-044>046-052>056-062>065-212115- HARDIN-LOGAN-UNION OH-DELAWARE-CHAMPAIGN-CLARK-MADISON-FRANKLIN OH- LICKING-GREENE-FAYETTE OH-PICKAWAY-FAIRFIELD- 415 PM EST MON DEC 20 2010 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL OHIO...MIAMI VALLEY OF OHIO AND WEST CENTRAL OHIO. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE MOVING FROM THE WEST WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SNOW LATE TONIGHT. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE REGION TUESDAY...BRINGING A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN. SOME LINGERING LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM LOOKS TO AFFECT THE REGION FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. A GOOD DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY EXISTS REGARDING THE TIMING AND EXACT TRACK OF THIS WINTER STORM. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL FALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW. THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...WHICH WOULD PRODUCE AN IMPACT ON HOLIDAY TRAVEL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Top 4 analog for this storm.... I was 10 yrs old then, back then we had good winters Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ArmyGreens Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Here's my call...Columbus and vicinity will get 6-8 inches (more south of I 70 and less north) that is unless the storm goes south then it will be <2". If it fizzles heading west then we will get a dusting and if it heads towards the GOM we get a cold sunny Christmas. Yep, that's my final call...now all you Ohio posters can forget about wasting sleepless nights with the assurance of this forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Here's my call...Columbus and vicinity will get 6-8 inches (more south of I 70 and less north) that is unless the storm goes south then it will be <2". If it fizzles heading west then we will get a dusting and if it heads towards the GOM we get a cold sunny Christmas. Yep, that's my final call...now all you Ohio posters can forget about wasting sleepless nights with the assurance of this forecast. Ill just sit here eating my buckeyes and wait religiously for each model run instead lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Anyone up for the bus off a bridge, I'll be driving it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Anyone up for the bus off a bridge, I'll be driving it. looking at the 18z gfs out to 72 I may join you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 18z GFS may look very similar to the 12z. through 78. Might just be a hair bit farther north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Anyone up for the bus off a bridge, I'll be driving it. I am. BTW, I'm placing the Toronto area under Weenie Suicide Watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 18z GFS may look very similar to the 12z. through 78. Might just be a hair bit farther north. dyying up as it moves east just like the past 4 storms. fed up. sickening because it even has the low in eastern KY and still dries it up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 I am. BTW, I'm placing the Toronto area under Weenie Suicide Watch. 18z toying with me again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Anyone up for the bus off a bridge, I'll be driving it. Rev it up, but don't take the plunge yet. I like the placement of the H5/H7 low on the 18z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 you mean NE? Todays storm is moving east, not NW? Yea I meant NE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 GFS dries up as it crosses the Mississippi.. Still a nice hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 dyying up as it moves east just like the past 4 storms. fed up. sickening because it even has the low in eastern KY and still dries it up. It's funny how most of the time we get storms and they get suppressed fro the north, and now of a sudden we get the storm suppressed from the east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ArmyGreens Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE AREA AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. CONSIDERABLE INTEREST AND UNCERTAINTY WITH NEXT SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN US AT THE END OF THE WEEK. 12Z GFS AND 12Z GEFS MEAN ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT TAKING SURFACE LOW THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST STATES NEAR I-20. HOWEVER 12Z CANADIAN AND 12Z ECMWF ARE FURTHER SOUTH NEAR THE GULF COAST. THE FORMER WOULD RESULT IN ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL FOR ALMOST THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WHILE THE LATTER WOULD BRING LITTLE TO NO SNOW. TIMING IS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT EXCEPT FOR THE ECMWF WHICH HAS BEEN A SLOWER SOLUTION FOR SEVERAL RUNS. GIVEN THIS SPREAD AND VARIABILITY GOING BACK THROUGH EARLIER RUNS HAVE OPTED FOR MID RANGE POPS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT THEN SLOWLY DECREASING SATURDAY. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY WHICH WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL WITH COLD AIR BEING REINFORCED OVER THE WEEKEND. I know exactly how this story ends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 GIVEN THIS SPREAD AND VARIABILITY GOING BACK THROUGH EARLIER RUNS HAVE OPTED FOR MID RANGE POPS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT THEN SLOWLY DECREASING SATURDAY. I know exactly how this story ends. I cant believe they are still going with 50% pops. That pesky gfs holding its ground. Need the euro to go back north. It's funny how most of the time we get storms and they get suppressed fro the north, and now of a sudden we get the storm suppressed from the east I dont get it. Low is in eastern KY normally the perfect track for us central ohio people. at least the gfs still holds its ground on the storm track. worry about qpf later I guess, just annoyed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 I dont get it. Low is in eastern KY normally the perfect track for us central ohio people. at least the gfs still holds its ground on the storm track. worry about qpf later I guess, just annoyed. i suspect the first subtle signs of a re-emerging north trend will begin tonite, and hasten tomorrow. By wednesday we'll be back to square one with a juicy bowling ball tracking thru the lower OV. We will have come around full circle and the timing will be perfect. mark my words. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 If the dry air to the east and the block is weakening that means it shouldnt strenghthen later further east like it does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 i suspect the first subtle signs of a re-emerging north trend will begin tonite, and hasten tomorrow. By wednesday we'll be back to square one with a juicy bowling ball tracking thru the lower OV. We will have come around full circle and the timing will be perfect. mark my words. Its frustrating seeing the GFS give us the perfect track only to have minimal precip to work with when it gets here. damn block, anyone have a nuke we can shoot at it? lol and I am holding you to those words lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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