December 24-25 Snowstorm

[snowstormcanuck]

Looks like a 972 in far SE Maine on D7. Sure hope that doesn't just perpetuate the -NAO or we might face the same problems of getting a storm sufficiently far north next week.

[jhamps10]

jb is saying i-70 is the axis west to east. Also says swath of 6-12 denver to dulles.

that and 7 bucks gets you a cup of coffee at starbucks.

btw, the most disturbing thing to the i-95ers should be the fact that the storm is getting stuck in the 144 hr timeframe. Usually when a progged storm pushes back in time like that, it's not good.

hey hey JB ended up doing pretty good on that I-80 special a couple of weeks ago, oh you don't mean the low placement do ya

and what the heck coffee are you getting for $7 at starbucks???? the most I ever spend there is $5

[buckeye]

well the jma, (which never saw a coastal it didn't latch onto and love), takes a monster 1014 low and slides it east off the GA/FL border

[LizardMafia]

Well now the wait for the 18z and 00z to see if the euro statement shows up on all the other models now..

[dilly84]

jb is saying i-70 is the axis west to east. Also says swath of 6-12 denver to dulles.

that and 7 bucks gets you a cup of coffee at starbucks.

btw, the most disturbing thing to the i-95ers should be the fact that the storm is getting stuck in the 144 hr timeframe. Usually when a progged storm pushes back in time like that, it's not good.

Henry basically said he's going with that bowling ball effect you talked about. What does jb mean? I cannot believe accuwx isnt hyping the euro. Even Elliot Abrams, who, imo, is one of the better mets at accuwx, is thinking it'll be further north. Hell who knows. Im just shocked they arent hyping it for i-95 for once.

Only thing that really makes me sick, is how nearly all the models basically hammers us, and now they are all different. Sickening. hope you're right in your statement above and they all go back to original form in the next day.

[TimChgo9]

looking forward to my thunderstorms.

Yeah, yeah, it'll be like Christmas Eve of 1982 all over again, except with snow this time.....

[Organizing Low]

I think he can post wherever he wants. He isn't trolling anyone.

well we've had plenty of people come into threads and troll like that.

Hurricane apparently has family in the MW, so its all fair

but i dont think the initial assumption that he was possibly trolling was out of line at all, based on what he/she posted and past instances.

defintely was odd that a met would do that though.

[JoMo]

Henry basically said he's going with that bowling ball effect you talked about. What does jb mean? I cannot believe accuwx isnt hyping the euro. Even Elliot Abrams, who, imo, is one of the better mets at accuwx, is thinking it'll be further north. Hell who knows. Im just shocked they arent hyping it for i-95 for once.

Only thing that really makes me sick, is how nearly all the models basically hammers us, and now they are all different. Sickening. hope you're right in your statement above and they all go back to original form in the next day.

A bowling ball would take the storm W-E pretty much. It's the interaction with the N Stream that really weakens this storm.

[buckeye]

Henry basically said he's going with that bowling ball effect you talked about. What does jb mean? I cannot believe accuwx isnt hyping the euro. Even Elliot Abrams, who, imo, is one of the better mets at accuwx, is thinking it'll be further north. Hell who knows. Im just shocked they arent hyping it for i-95 for once.

Only thing that really makes me sick, is how nearly all the models basically hammers us, and now they are all different. Sickening. hope you're right in your statement above and they all go back to original form in the next day.

I would be curious to know what the meteorological reasons are going for a more northerly track.

[A-L-E-K]

well we've had plenty of people come into threads and troll like that.

Hurricane apparently has family in the MW, so its all fair

but i dont think the initial assumption that he was possibly trolling was out of line at all, based on what he/she posted and past instances.

defintely was odd that a met would do that though.

Hurricane Tracker does have a history of posting usefull information in midwest threads and seems to take an interest in our weather (see the clipper thread) so i didn't see it as a troll attempt.

[Organizing Low]

Hurricane Tracker does have a history of posting usefull information in midwest threads and seems to take an interest in our weather (see the clipper thread) so i didn't see it as a troll attempt.

yes, as i said in the above post Hurricane gave an explanation

i was just repsonding to Baroclinicity

[CarmelPoster]

Can anyone direct me to a place where I could see some upper level diagrams to help make my point to some fellow co-workers?

[snowstormcanuck]

I would be curious to know what the meteorological reasons are going for a more northerly track.

Maybe similar to the reasoning csnavywx has adduced? I won't even attempt to paraphrase him because I'm sure I'll screw it up but you can find it a couple of pages back.

[Amos83]

LOL, well yesterday my trip to Carbonale, IL looked to be too far south to see any good snow, now it looks like I'll be too far north to see much of anything. On top of that I'll miss a major SE snowstorm hit my home while I'm gone!

Thankfulyl there is still a couple of days for things to change.

[Hoosier]

What are some early thoughts for Cent. IN? we have been teased by 1-2" snows long enough! bring on the good stuff!!!

Too early to tell. Latest trends aren't great but this is still 4 or 5 days away.

[CarmelPoster]

Too early to tell. Latest trends aren't great but this is still 4 or 5 days away.

Thanks! Hopefully it takes its initial track!

[Harry]

Too early to tell. Latest trends aren't great but this is still 4 or 5 days away.

I *think* once we get this current mess out of the way all should have a better answer. Trends are not good though as you said.

[dilly84]

I would be curious to know what the meteorological reasons are going for a more northerly track.

Seems like they are just going with the gfs. Idk, go watch the videos lol

[JoMo]

Can anyone direct me to a place where I could see some upper level diagrams to help make my point to some fellow co-workers?

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/ewall.html

[JoMo]

HPC had an interesting discussion. Looks like they are saying the Euro is too slow and far south.

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/pmdepd.html

[The_Global_Warmer]

[dilly84]

HPC had an interesting discussion. Looks like they are saying the Euro is too slow and far south.

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/pmdepd.html

Still states it is supposed to move into or near the deep south

[michsnowfreak]

i can't help to wonder if over the next day or so we begin to see models revert back to their original earlier concensus of a track west to east further north. I've seen that happen a few times where all the models agree on a storm track at day 7 or 8 then they all go wild one way or another only to come full circle back to the original idea.

This suppression thing just seems really odd....but that could just be my weiner talking

No one anywhere should be writing this storm off. Ive seen the models mess up everything so far this month. (Tomorrows snow is now a no-go, the Dec 12th storm did SE MI well but for reasons no models even forecast). Plus, as you pointed out, we are now at the infamous "day 5". That is always when models would lose a storm and then get it back the next 2 days or so. No they didnt literally lose the storm entirely, but you know what I mean.

[okie333]

No one anywhere should be writing this storm off. Ive seen the models mess up everything so far this month. (Tomorrows snow is now a no-go, the Dec 12th storm did SE MI well but for reasons no models even forecast). Plus, as you pointed out, we are now at the infamous "day 5". That is always when models would lose a storm and then get it back the next 2 days or so. No they didnt literally lose the storm entirely, but you know what I mean.

Not even the people from Tulsa (me), OKC, Dallas, and Austin?

[ArmyGreens]

Still states it is supposed to move into or near the deep south

Also stated that it had stronger northern energy that would absorb the s/w energy. Wouldn't this mean a more northern track?

[michsnowfreak]

Not even the people from Tulsa (me), OKC, Dallas, and Austin?

No, although when I said "no one" obviously I didnt mean those in L.A. or Seattle lol

[JoMo]

Anyone have a link to the GGEM precip type maps and do they go out past 84?

[Stevo6899]

No one anywhere should be writing this storm off. Ive seen the models mess up everything so far this month. (Tomorrows snow is now a no-go, the Dec 12th storm did SE MI well but for reasons no models even forecast). Plus, as you pointed out, we are now at the infamous "day 5". That is always when models would lose a storm and then get it back the next 2 days or so. No they didnt literally lose the storm entirely, but you know what I mean.

So does it all come down to whether the ec storm departs fast enough that it doesn't block this storm from going further north? Or is the high up in canada keeping this thing from going north? Is there another low it could phase with? Really confused.

[dilly84]

Also stated that it had stronger northern energy that would absorb the s/w energy. Wouldn't this mean a more northern track?

They are fishermen and we are the fish, all that did was reel us in to two more days of getting nothing done lol

[JoMo]

So does it all come down to whether the ec storm departs fast enough that it doesn't block this storm from going further north? Or is the high up in canada keeping this thing from going north? Is there another low it could phase with? Really confused.

All the models are to the south currently. During the last big storm, the Euro was consistently north, now it is consistently south. Doesn't look good for you all. But it's still 5 or so days away and a lot can change.