December 24-25 Snowstorm

[wxdudemike]

looks to me like the euro would suppress and out....that 500map at 96 isn't screaming for a northward trend

Looks like it might phase more though?

[HurricaneTracker]

Sounds like it'd be north of the 0z run, no?

Nope. Still further south. Looks like a non-event for anyone north of I-74. Maybe even I-70.

[JoMo]

Sounds like it'd be north of the 0z run, no?

Nope.

It's sooooo slow.

[dilly84]

looks to me like the euro would suppress and out....that 500map at 96 isn't screaming for a northward trend

Its all dependant on if the block stays strong and in place. Was hoping the current system would help weaken it or get rid of it,

[JoMo]

From tombo:

hr 96 has lgt precip over the plains, and lgt to mod precip over tx,ok

hr 102 has a 1016 low looks to be over dallas....lgt precip from mn to mo...mod precip over oklahoma and tx

hr 108 has a 1016 low somewhere in southern la the pressure is very broad... lgt precip from mn to mo...lgt to mod precip over eastern tx and ok and western mo

[wxdudemike]

Its all dependant on if the block stays strong and in place. Was hoping the current system would help weaken it or get rid of it,

Yup we're gonna cut right through that -AO around -4 to -5 SD's below normal

[jhamps10]

for anyone who wants to use it after todays model runs

I think I left my wallet in there from the run when the models were showing a more northern solution. If you find it, please return.

ROFL! That may be the funniest posts I've seen thus far...

Wow the GGEM ALMOST has us too far north, here in Flora..

[Harry]

looks to me like the euro would suppress and out....that 500map at 96 isn't screaming for a northward trend

Pretty much. Basically all north of i40 get the big ole shaft except in OK.

It is trying like heck though to make the bend up the coast.

[HurricaneTracker]

at 120 hours, the euro has a surface low over Mobile, AL.

Storm cancel for the Midwest.

Storm interest ensues across the southeast.

[dilly84]

Well it is official, we're all screwed. Henry M posted his snow map, and in a shocker apparently isnt buying the south trend, and puts most of us in the bullseye, no big snow for the i-95 crowd he says.

I am starting to think that this is a New England snowstorm and not a big storm for the I-95 cities. For the Midwest, it certainly will be a 3- to 6-inch snow event with locally 10 inches. Why a New England storm?

1. Pattern has been one where the storms go off the coast and become big storms in the Atlantic that end up moving northwest under the block.

2. With the ridge going up in the Rockies, the trough should go west, meaning the storm will intensify closer to the coast and not out in the Atlantic.

3. Storm should back into New England and Maine as it moves under the block. That will put Boston to Bangor in the 6+ zone if that happens. It may happen on Sunday the 26th, and not the 25th as first thought.

4. In the Midwest from Iowa to Illinois, thunderstorms may produce snows in excess of 6 inches despite what I have on the map.

[KokomoWX]

Euro text output shows zero QPF for Kokomo on the 24th/25th.

[The_Global_Warmer]

at 120 hours, the euro has a surface low over Mobile, AL.

Storm cancel for the Midwest.

Storm interest ensues across the southeast.

yeah, I bet the euro has snow here.

[snowstormcanuck]

Lot of GFS ensembles hinting at something big next week. AO will be on the rise fast so we might be in a good spot for one of those "transition" storms.

[wxdudemike]

Yikes, Euro whiffs. hmmm it's getting into it's killer range too.

[Harry]

at 120 hours, the euro has a surface low over Mobile, AL.

Storm cancel for the Midwest.

Storm interest ensues across the southeast.

At the coast/se of i95 perhaps and that may be pushing it. Trends are not good for anyone.

[snowstormcanuck]

at 120 hours, the euro has a surface low over Mobile, AL.

Storm cancel for the Midwest.

Storm interest ensues across the southeast.

lol, is this cross-forum trolling from a pro met?

[Chicago WX]

Well it is official, we're all screwed. Henry M posted his snow map, and in a shocker apparently isnt buying the south trend, and puts most of us in the bullseye, no big snow for the i-95 crowd he says.

4. In the Midwest from Iowa to Illinois, thunderstorms may produce snows in excess of 6 inches despite what I have on the map.

Tell me #4 is made up?

[buckeye]

i can't help to wonder if over the next day or so we begin to see models revert back to their original earlier concensus of a track west to east further north. I've seen that happen a few times where all the models agree on a storm track at day 7 or 8 then they all go wild one way or another only to come full circle back to the original idea.

This suppression thing just seems really odd....but that could just be my weiner talking

[HurricaneTracker]

lol, is this cross-forum trolling from a pro met?

Not at all.

I have family in both the southeast and Midwest and as such, I monitor and forecast for both places.

[Harry]

Yikes, Euro whiffs. hmmm it's getting into it's killer range too.

Even misses DC/Philly. Nice hit in New Engand and a few inches for NYC/The coastal areas from se VA/Delmarva/NJ.

[dilly84]

Tell me #4 is made up?

No he says, heaviest snows between a line of i-80 down to i - 70. He puts the low in KY.

Basically he states that, the jet stream is basically moving in close to a straight line across the country, so if the storm enters in san francisco, draw a line across the country from where it enters, and thats how he is figuring between i-80 and i-70 will see the heaviest snows. Storm exits where it enters or some babble.

[baroclinic_instability]

incredibly sad.

I think he can post wherever he wants. He isn't trolling anyone.

[JayPSU]

i can't help to wonder if over the next day or so we begin to see models revert back to their original earlier concensus of a track west to east further north. I've seen that happen a few times where all the models agree on a storm track at day 7 or 8 then they all go wild one way or another only to come full circle back to the original idea.

This suppression thing just seems really odd....but that could just be my weiner talking

Or there's someone you REALLY want to get out of seeing on Christmas.

[snowstormcanuck]

Not at all.

I have family in both the southeast and Midwest and as such, I monitor and forecast for both places.

Ok, fair enough. And that was a non-rhetorical question. I hadn't seen you post here so I wasn't sure if that was a troll 'n run.

[Chicago WX]

No he says, heaviest snows between a line of i-80 down to i - 70. He puts the low in KY.

I guess I was lol'ing to the "thunderstorms producing in excess of 6 inches" part.

Regardless, good luck to him.

[jhamps10]

Tell me #4 is made up?

that's a direct copy of Henry's words.... I looked it up myself.

[HurricaneTracker]

Ok, fair enough. And that was a non-rhetorical question. I hadn't seen you post here so I wasn't sure if that was a troll 'n run.

Nope. I actually used to live in Chicago for more than 20 years before moving to Asheville, NC. So my heart still sings for snow in Chicago.

[dilly84]

that's a direct copy of Henry's words.... I looked it up myself.

watch his morning video. Im shocked considering he is the hype master, and he isnt buying into the euro. SHOCKED!!!!

[A-L-E-K]

looking forward to my thunderstorms.

[buckeye]

jb is saying i-70 is the axis west to east. Also says swath of 6-12 denver to dulles.

that and 7 bucks gets you a cup of coffee at starbucks.

btw, the most disturbing thing to the i-95ers should be the fact that the storm is getting stuck in the 144 hr timeframe. Usually when a progged storm pushes back in time like that, it's not good.