December 24-25 Snowstorm

[snowstormcanuck]

GGEM through 120 = basically a Gulf coast track. QPF never gets much north of I-70.

[Omahawx]

I think this is the updated GEM;

[Chicago Storm]

I think this is the updated GEM;

No.

[toronto blizzard]

GGEM through 120 = basically a Gulf coast track. QPF never gets much north of I-70.

This is basically a miss for us as it wasn't even much of threat in the first place for us. What do you say abouth the potential for E-NE winds friday into saturday. Potential for lake effect?

[JoMo]

I think this is the updated GEM;

I posted the updated GEM on the last page..................

[Omahawx]

Ok thanks, still gives me a good hit as well as gfs may be weaker for me, but is colder for the bulk of the precip and gives my area 3-7"

[JayPSU]

GGEM looks like a complete miss for most everyone including the east coast. Must be right.

[snowstormcanuck]

This is basically a miss for us as it wasn't even much of threat in the first place for us. What do you say abouth the potential for E-NE winds friday into saturday. Potential for lake effect?

Yes, it was long shot for us, so there's really no loss.

LES is a non-factor with this storm for us. The flow is going to be 010-020 (N/NNE), or around there, which will focus anything that develops down into the Niagara peninsula. And even there, with low inversion heights and a dry airmass, it'll be lackluster.

[JoMo]

NOGAPS in line with the GFS/GGEM as well.

[The_Global_Warmer]

GFS has 7-10 here, GEM has 7-10 here.

so tantalizing for being only 4 days out...what a tease

[Moneyman]

Ok thanks, still gives me a good hit as well as gfs may be weaker for me, but is colder for the bulk of the precip and gives my area 3-7"

What are you smoking? The GEM doesn't even give you 10 MM which is .2 qpf. You get between .1 and .2 on the GEM which is like 2-3 inches, not anywhere near 7 inches.

[snowstormcanuck]

What are you smoking? The GEM doesn't even give you 10 MM which is .2 qpf. You get between .1 and .2 on the GEM which is like 2-3 inches, not anywhere near 7 inches.

10mm = ~0.40"

[JoMo]

What are you smoking? The GEM doesn't even give you 10 MM which is .2 qpf. You get between .1 and .2 on the GEM which is like 2-3 inches, not anywhere near 7 inches.

I dunno, it's snowing there at 84 probably as well.

[Moneyman]

I could have sworn that 5 MM is .1 QPF. Odd.

[The_Global_Warmer]

this system can't push int the lakes with that set up.

even the nam would move east or even ESE at a point.

the lakes issue is stronger so it can't move ENE after it hits the Western OV. that will end up being a battle ground, which we have seen storms win many times and end up further north.

[A-L-E-K]

I could have sworn that 5 MM is .1 QPF. Odd.

Google is your friend. There is nothing "odd" here.

[snowstormcanuck]

I could have sworn that 5 MM is .1 QPF. Odd.

I'm telling you it's not. Roughly, 1mm = 0.04", 5mm = 0.20", 10mm = 0.40"

[Chicago WX]

10mm = ~0.40"

Silly metric system.

For those scoring at home, a quick conversion using the GGEM QPF ranges:

1-2.5mm=0.04-0.1"

2.5-5mm= 0.1-0.2"

5-10mm=0.2-0.4"

10-15mm=0.4-0.6"

15-20mm=0.6-0.8"

20-25mm=0.8-1.00"

[snowstormcanuck]

Silly metric system.

For those scoring at home, a quick conversion using the GGEM QPF ranges:

1-2.5mm=0.04-0.1"

2.5-5mm= 0.1-0.2"

5-10mm=0.2-0.4"

10-15mm=0.4-0.6"

15-20mm=0.6-0.8"

20-25mm=0.8-1.00"

Belated congrats on your 1,000 post Tim.

[Chicago WX]

Belated congrats on your 1,000 post Tim.

Thanks.

As for this storm, obviously the blocking is winning out on the models right now.

I'm just going to have to hope for a Christmas 2002 miracle repeat.

[JoMo]

La FIM is onboard as well it looks like.

Euro has just initialized, watch it come north with a track across Iowa.

[Omahawx]

Where do you guys get the FIM model?

[JoMo]

Where do you guys get the FIM model?

It's an experimental model. I check it as something to do when waiting on other models.

http://fim.noaa.gov/

[A-L-E-K]

for anyone who wants to use it after todays model runs

[The_Global_Warmer]

for anyone who wants to use it after todays model runs

at least mixing and a dry slot is not looking likely for you...but snow will be.

[JoMo]

for anyone who wants to use it after todays model runs

I think I left my wallet in there from the run when the models were showing a more northern solution. If you find it, please return.

[dilly84]

This crap is exactly why I didn't want to focus on these models until later Tuesday. The Lord giveth and the Lord taketh away!

Don't give up yet, we need to see what this damn block does when the first storm goes through

[JoMo]

Euro is a lot slower than the GFS.

Hour 96 it has the energy over NW TX/TX Panhandle while the GFS has it over W Arkansas.

[buckeye]

Euro is a lot slower than the GFS.

Hour 96 it has the energy over NW TX/TX Panhandle while the GFS has it over W Arkansas.

looks to me like the euro would suppress and out....that 500map at 96 isn't screaming for a northward trend

[dilly84]

Euro is a lot slower than the GFS.

Hour 96 it has the energy over NW TX/TX Panhandle while the GFS has it over W Arkansas.

Sounds like it'd be north of the 0z run, no?