Chicago Storm Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 FWIW, it looks like the 0z GFS slowed things down by about 12hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Henry M and several Afd's keep saying it will take a similar track to the mon-tuesday storm. They say the models are too much south with the second wave. 0Z 120hr GGEM agrees Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 apparently you weren't planning a visit to the inlaws I'd feel a lot better if the euro continues tracking this thru KY as well....or even if its too south for an ideal hit here. It seems the euro rarely adjusts back south once it starts to lock onto a track. Just gotta keep the faith. I could careless about the Tuesday system if this on can hit us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 FWIW, it looks like the 0z GFS slowed things down by about 12hrs. the problem is the gfs is just too damn perfect... ...at 144 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 0Z 120hr GGEM agrees haha yeah it's way north. GFS has been the farthest south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jhamps10 Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 as usual, the GEM saying, lets hammer MSP AGAIN!!!! Come on guys, you gotta share sometime! Besides if you don't you may lose your football team to LA... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 0Z 120hr GGEM agrees 132 looks ok...and haven't seen 144 but looking at the 500 its continuing to dig and the rh shifts south into southern OH and Ky Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 ggem 132 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 132 looks ok...and haven't seen 144 but looking at the 500 its continuing to dig and the rh shifts south into southern OH and Ky low over e.ky at 144... not bad. I will say this, the consistency for the models, euro, gfs, now canadian...wanting to find a way to put a low in KY around xmas has been pretty solid the last couple days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 throw the nogaps on the xmas ky surface low band wagon as well. havent seen this much model aggreement on a slp placement 6 days out in a very long time. ....something must be wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jhamps10 Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 throw the nogaps on the xmas ky surface low band wagon as well. havent seen this much model aggreement on a slp placement 6 days out in a very long time. ....something must be wrong the end point may be the same, the difference is how it gets to that point... i'll be honest I'm not feeling real good about this one now.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 throw the nogaps on the xmas ky surface low band wagon as well. havent seen this much model aggreement on a slp placement 6 days out in a very long time. ....something must be wrong Sounds like a situation to me Not sure what to think....I have plans the 24th and 25th that probably won't happen if we get the 10-11 inches the GFS suggests, but at the same time it would suck to see our 5+ inch snowpack dissolved the day before Christmas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madmaxweather Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Wow there is a consensus among the models..Bullseye this far out.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jhamps10 Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Wow there is a consensus among the models..Bullseye this far out.... once again like I'm preaching to a brick wall, there is ONLY a consensus on the end point, NOT on how it gets there..... to that i would NOT call it a consensus, just my opinion on that... and it's the how it gets there that is of most importance to most of us here, not just the areas between I-75 and I-77 (no offense on that) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 once again like I'm preaching to a brick wall, there is ONLY a consensus on the end point, NOT on how it gets there..... to that i would NOT call it a consensus, just my opinion on that... and it's the how it gets there that is of most importance to most of us here, not just the areas between I-75 and I-77 (no offense on that) Yep, this is for early on: GFS sniffed this storm out first. It has the farthest south solution currently. The GGEM will probably have the farthest north while the ECMWF will come in in between the two. The GFS solution is a west to east type of system while the GGEM and NOGAPS are NW to SE like a clipper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 The 0z GFS and GGEM are both solid snow events here. can't remember the last time following two good snow systems possibly so close to eachother for perhaps the same area. think we had back to back storms here in the 2008 maybe when LOT issued back to back blizzard watches between 2 or 3 days and both busted if I remember correctly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 ukie is further south....more like TN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 ukie is further south....more like TN. how does it get there though? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Omahawx Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Someone post the new ukie, isnt updating over here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 how does it get there though? TX at 120 then TN at 144 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jhamps10 Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 TX at 120 then TN at 144 wow that's a wonderful track for my area with that track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 wow that's a wonderful track for my area with that track. Ditto Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jhamps10 Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 SO it's GFS, UKMET vs NOGAPS and GGEM... OK euro which team you joining, team demolish the metrodome roof with snow, or team lets give somebody else some snow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Sounds like a situation to me Not sure what to think....I have plans the 24th and 25th that probably won't happen if we get the 10-11 inches the GFS suggests, but at the same time it would suck to see our 5+ inch snowpack dissolved the day before Christmas Sorry Mike. Rooting against your thinking here. Ill take my chances. I have a 1/2 snow pack ill take the chance that it'll be washed away if there's a chance we see a big storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 cant believe folks even look at the NAM and Uncle (Jer-fella) Ukie.. I guess with all the models out there one of them has to hit somebody but holy sh!t. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 cant believe folks even look at the NAM and Uncle (Jer-fella) Ukie.. I guess with all the models out there one of them has to hit somebody but holy sh!t. UKMET is #2 behind the Euro at Day 5 (500 MB heights) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jhamps10 Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 cant believe folks even look at the NAM and Uncle (Jer-fella) Ukie.. I guess with all the models out there one of them has to hit somebody but holy sh!t. plus the NAM was the most reliable with the clipper/ice event mid week... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 UKMET is #2 behind the Euro at Day 5 (500 MB heights) That model is a pile of flip flop **** along with the rest of them outside of the, Euro, which isn't perfect by any means... I don't care what the records show. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 That model is a pile of flip flop **** along with the rest of them outside of the, Euro, which isn't perfect by any means... I don't care what the records show. Bad mood Bow? Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Day 5 Euro has the 500 MB energy in almost the exact same place as the GFS. 1004 MB low over SW KS/OK Panhandle area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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