A-L-E-K Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 some early changes in how the NAM is going to handle the SW energy 0z 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 But yeah that is how it has always been going back to wwbb/before eastern. Some just never learn. This. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Consistency counts for something, but IMO is overrated at 100+hrs out, especially when it's consistency without agreement. Right now the GFS doesn't have much backup in the model world and its ensembles are leaning away from the OP. The Euro is probably a little extreme especially given its history with energy into the southwest, but I think we're going to see the GFS start trending at least a little south. I'd be surprised if the Euro was just totally out to lunch. I certainly agree with you Alek. The key for us in TX was the repeated 'hints' this morning in a shift toward the Euro if that solution were valid. With wave lengths becoming shorter and more amplification seen across the Pacific, the stage is being set for an interesting week into next week with a lot of volatility in guidance. These AO, NAO, PNA transitions can be mighty tough to forecast and I suspect we are beginning to see that in this pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 some early changes in how the NAM is going to handle the SW energy 0z 12z Slightly broader, more rounded s/w and lower heights out ahead of it (552dm contour doesn't reach into Canada on the 12z run). Stupid as it is to extrapolate the NAM past 84, I'd say it'd be in the ever growing suppressed camp. Also, I really hate that tongue of troughiness that extends from New England to northern Manitoba that's now showing up on a lot of the models. It acts as a pseudo-block, even though the main vortex is SE of Newfoundland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Slightly broader, more rounded s/w and lower heights out ahead of it (552dm contour doesn't reach into Canada on the 12z run). Stupid as it is to extrapolate the NAM past 84, I'd say it'd be in the ever growing suppressed camp. Also, I really hate that tongue of troughiness that extends from New England to northern Manitoba that's now showing up on a lot of the models. It acts as a pseudo-block, even though the main vortex is SE of Newfoundland. Low in extreme NW TX at 84 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Slightly broader, more rounded s/w and lower heights out ahead of it (552dm contour doesn't reach into Canada on the 12z run). Stupid as it is to extrapolate the NAM past 84, I'd say it'd be in the ever growing suppressed camp. Also, I really hate that tongue of troughiness that extends from New England to northern Manitoba that's now showing up on a lot of the models. It acts as a pseudo-block, even though the main vortex is SE of Newfoundland. The NAM hasn't been total crap this winter so i think it's worth noting at least changes between it's own runs. Myabe it's me, but this doesn't look like supressed. As far as i'm concerned, the NAM looks to be in the GFS camp right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/12/images/nam_500_084l.gif/img] Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blue60007 Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 The NAM hasn't been total crap this winter so i think it's worth noting at least changes between it's own runs. Myabe it's me, but this doesn't look like supressed. As far as i'm concerned, the NAM looks to be in the GFS camp right now. It doesn't look suppressed to me either. If anything, extrapolating it'll go a bit south of the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Good hit for the plains folks, especially Iowa. Going by the look of that vort, it doesn't scream super supressed Euro stylee, but i could be way off base. It's the 84 hr NAM but it has done well this year picking up low development. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 nam 12z at 00z friday vs. euro 00z at 00z friday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Agree with Aleking, that the NAM extrapolated, probably isn't suppressed crap...trough neutral as it crosses the Plains...but the blocking remains over the NE quadrant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 nam 12z at 00z friday vs. euro 00z at 00z friday nam looks like its very close to trying to close off a low rather quickly....not sure if that would be good or bad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 The NAM hasn't been total crap this winter so i think it's worth noting at least changes between it's own runs. Myabe it's me, but this doesn't look like supressed. As far as i'm concerned, the NAM looks to be in the GFS camp right now. Sorry, my imby glasses are coloring how I'm describing this. For me, anything that's not looking like the 18z/19 GFS is the "suppressed" camp. Yeah, that'd look more like the GFS than the UKIE/EURO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 It doesn't look suppressed to me either. If anything, extrapolating it'll go a bit south of the GFS. Comparing the 12z NAM to the 0z GFS, it's only a touch south with the 850 but that might be deceiving as it's also slower. The look fairly similar at 850 with the NAM perhaps a tad more impressive. Hopefully the 18z and 0z runs don't start shifting south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 nam 12z at 00z friday vs. euro 00z at 00z friday Euro hanging back energy in the SW. Shocker. The NAM is actually suffering from some of the "phase-shift" problem that Baro pointed out before (entire height field 3-6 hrs behind GFS and more amped), but despite that, its 500mb feature is pretty darn close to the GFS, and when that shift is taken out, it's basically a carbon copy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Euro hanging back energy in the SW. Shocker. The NAM is actually suffering from some of the "phase-shift" problem that Baro pointed out before (entire height field 3-6 hrs behind GFS and more amped), but despite that, its 500mb feature is pretty darn close to the GFS, and when that shift is taken out, it's basically a carbon copy. Yeah i was thinking they looked pretty similar as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Sorry, my imby glasses are coloring how I'm describing this. For me, anything that's not looking like the 18z/19 GFS is the "suppressed" camp. Yeah, that'd look more like the GFS than the UKIE/EURO. That height field to the east on that map is doomed to eventually suppress it, but it will not run into that flow until it gets close to the Lakes, essentially. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 That height field to the east on that map is doomed to eventually suppress it, but it will not run into that flow until it gets close to the Lakes, essentially. Super Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
okie333 Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Wow that's some extreme PV... possible self-development just beyond the NAM period, then a switch from SE track to NE track around AR border (or somewhere between 12/24 18z and 12/25 00z) or so? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Id say it'll be at least Wednesday before we see close to the exact path. Need to see what the current storm in the plains does. I'm with buckeye though. Just shift the euro 250 miles west. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 At work on my phone so don't want to go through trouble of copying and pasting but the grr afd is very interesting. Not sure if thats the snowlover in the met talking or if he has a good argument. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 This storms looks to have a pretty good moisture connection at least early on before it blows its load. A Decent slug of Pac moisuter gets pulled in along with somewhat of a gulf connection. Even if it doesn't crank up anything like the GFS was showing those up north could get a decent snow anyways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Here in Iowa we just need the mid/upper energy to eject far enough north to be able to throw a big slug of deep moisture up into the cold. If it wants to get suppressed to the southeast after that it won't matter to us. I'd still like to see the forum folks to the east get a nice snow as well, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimChgo9 Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Taking a wait and see attitude, until about Wednesday.... Last look at the GFS, it's still on the southerly solution. Looks like congrats to STL, and LAF on this run GFS then takes it up the coast... Not sure if it's what the EC'ers want, but it goes up the coast while out to sea...perhaps farther E than some other runs? Not sure, once a system passes East of the GL, I quit paying attention to it.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Taking a wait and see attitude, until about Wednesday.... Last look at the GFS, it's still on the southerly solution. Looks like congrats to STL, and LAF on this run GFS then takes it up the coast... Not sure if it's what the EC'ers want, but it goes up the coast while out to sea...perhaps farther E than some other runs? Not sure, once a system passes East of the GL, I quit paying attention to it.... Come again? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 At work on my phone so don't want to go through trouble of copying and pasting but the grr afd is very interesting. Not sure if thats the snowlover in the met talking or if he has a good argument. here AS FOR THE EVENT FOR FRIDAY... I STILL THINK WE HAVE TO WATCH THIS ONE. I REMAIN UNCONVINCED THIS WILL MISS SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN TO THE SOUTH. THE SYSTEM THAT THIS COMES FROM IS A RATHER LARGE PACIFIC STORM JUST OFF THE WEST COAST AND LOOKS LIKE A DECENT SYSTEM NOW. TYPICALLY WHEN THE MODELS SHEAR THESE WAVES OUT OF THE WESTERN TROUGH THEY WEAKEN THEM MORE THEN THEY ACTUALLY WEAKEN. GIVEN THIS WILL HAVE GULF MOISTURE TO FEED IT... THE THE DIFFERENCE IN THE TRACK IS LARGELY AND ISSUE OF HOW STRONG THE STORM IS... THAT IS A STRONG STORM GOES FARTHER NORTH (COMPARE THE 18Z RUN THE 00Z RUN). ALSO CONSIDER THAT THERE IS A TRAILING WAVE. I HAVE SEEN TO MANY TIMES THAT THESE TRAILING WAVES SLOW DOWN THE PRIMARY SYSTEM. THAT TOO WOULD LEAD TO A MORE NORTHERLY TRACK. MOST (7 OUT OF 12) OF THE 20TH/00Z ENSEMBLE MEMBERS HAVE A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF QPF OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF OUR CWA FRIDAY. THIS HAS BEEN TRUE OF THE GFS ENSEMBLES FOR THIS SYSTEM FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW TOO. SO I AM IN NO HURRY TO LOWER POPS OVER OUR CWA FRIDAY. I STILL BELIEVE THIS COULD BE A BE A HEADLINE STORM FOR US. they mention something that i was wondering about. Apparently the reason the euro is so south and then bombs it, is because it's slower. I always thought a slower storm gave more rise for it to come further north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
okie333 Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Apparently the reason the euro is so south and then bombs it, is because it's slower. I always thought a slower storm gave more rise for it to come further north. A surge of negative-AO-induced Arctic air can cause a (relatively) rare SW (as opposed to NW) trend.The --AO has to be pretty strong to translate a slow-strong trend to a south trend, though... your run-of-the-mill -1.2SD block isn't going to cut it. Considering the lag time the AO has on the pattern, the value affecting the storm's track will be -4 to -5 or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Taking a wait and see attitude, until about Wednesday.... Last look at the GFS, it's still on the southerly solution. Looks like congrats to STL, and LAF on this run GFS then takes it up the coast... Not sure if it's what the EC'ers want, but it goes up the coast while out to sea...perhaps farther E than some other runs? Not sure, once a system passes East of the GL, I quit paying attention to it.... What? Gfs is just now initializing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Taking a wait and see attitude, until about Wednesday.... Last look at the GFS, it's still on the southerly solution. Looks like congrats to STL, and LAF on this run GFS then takes it up the coast... Not sure if it's what the EC'ers want, but it goes up the coast while out to sea...perhaps farther E than some other runs? Not sure, once a system passes East of the GL, I quit paying attention to it.... LAF snow is the lolz? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Taking a wait and see attitude, until about Wednesday.... Last look at the GFS, it's still on the southerly solution. Looks like congrats to STL, and LAF on this run GFS then takes it up the coast... Not sure if it's what the EC'ers want, but it goes up the coast while out to sea...perhaps farther E than some other runs? Not sure, once a system passes East of the GL, I quit paying attention to it.... Been out partying all night? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.