baroclinic_instability Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Hope you're wrong Harry. Id like the 12z runs to end this south trend now. You could hope this thing dives S and this one GFS perturbed ensemble member pans out. Has storm of the century and buries east coast and OV with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Hope you're wrong Harry. Id like the 12z runs to end this south trend now. meh.. I really don't have much of a opinion on what/where this will go other then it probably wont be where it is being shown on tonights euro run. Far to many players out there and a number of which are still unknowns such as our next system now rolling into the Plains. Why like baro said too it is VERY unwise for people to start making such calls already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 You could hope this thing dives S and this one GFS perturbed ensemble member pans out. Has storm of the century and buries east coast and OV with it. Ill take my chance that it goes back north or that the op gfs is close to correct. Not going to hope on a .001% chance of that map verifying lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 You could hope this thing dives S and this one GFS perturbed ensemble member pans out. Has storm of the century and buries east coast and OV with it. Just peaked at them.. WOW.. A good number of them are pretty darn juicy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Just peaked at them.. WOW.. A good number of them are pretty darn juicy. Ill take the 7th one please lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sidewinder Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Me too If any of those verify and its not a mixed bag I'll be in shock Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 is the sref garbage? i see the 03Z is much further n at 87 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 is the sref garbage? i see the 03Z is much further n at 87 I'm skeptical about using it this far out, but it probably says that the NAM will be north too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 i may have to make a trip on the 23rd and come back on the 25th depending on this storm. i would be heading to mcpherson, ks (between salina and wichita). i really dont want to go there. Hope the euro and cmc bring it back north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 I'm skeptical about using it this far out, but it probably says that the NAM will be north too. Correct. Looks like it could be well N of the euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 looks like office out of omaha is riding the gfs.....for now... THIS SETS THE STAGE FOR SYSTEM ROLLING INTO THE PLAINS THURSDAY. GFS IS FASTER AND FARTHER NORTH WITH SURFACE LOW AS COMPARED TO ECMWF. GFS HAS BEEN CONSISTENT IN TIMING/TRACK...AND HAS SUPPORT FROM A GOOD MAJORITY OF ITS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. THIS IS ALSO THE MOST BULLISH PRECIPITATION SOLUTION FOR OUR AREA. HAVE FOLLOWED THE GFS SOLUTION MORE CLOSELY GIVEN CONSISTENCY/SUPPORT linky http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=OAX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 looks like office out of omaha is riding the gfs.....for now... linky http://forecast.weat...on=1&glossary=1 looks like 06Z GFS about the same as 00Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 I'll take the 06z DGEX please Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 I'll take the 06z DGEX please I'll take it only 150 miles north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KokomoWX Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 I'll take the 06z DGEX please +1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 looks good to be gives me 4+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 .75"+ with good ratios three GFS runs in a row now, i'm getting excited. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Going back over things a lot of talk about the 0z euro. This model does tend to struggle with energy into the southwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Going back over things a lot of talk about the 0z euro. This model does tend to struggle with energy into the southwest. I'd be interested to see its QPF field given that there's three vorts trying to phase on the 120 hr panel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 I'd be interested to see its QPF field given that there's three vorts trying to phase on the 120 hr panel. was the euro showing a triple phaser?? as far as the i-95 crowd, after last nite's euro, the only trends available from here on out are stay the course or disappointment. Euro staying the course for 5 days is a tall order. I gotta admit, i'm pulled in hard. It just makes the mystery of what is going to happen xmas day even more interesting. ok, exactly what has to occur to have a euro solution displaced about 250 miles west...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 I'd be interested to see its QPF field given that there's three vorts trying to phase on the 120 hr panel. I'm sure it spits a tenth out or so over this way. I asked a couple of the Chicago area posters if the clipper today or the Thurs/Fri system would be the bigger deal, they both went Thrus/Fri. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 6z gfs came in weak for central Oh. I'm to a point of just not watching models and just waiting and seeing what happens. If 12z comes in weak well I may very well be done watching model for this storm. 6z dgex looks like the 18z gfs. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 6z gfs came in weak for central Oh. I'm to a point of just not watching models and just waiting and seeing what happens. If 12z comes in weak well I may very well be done watching model for this storm. 6z dgex looks like the 18z gfs. Lol You don't need to lie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
okie333 Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 6Z GFS Ensemble members way south with the 540 compared to past runs... now it's a near miss instead of a far miss for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Quick, let's ride the 00Z GGEM train! Oh, wait.... Hilarious spread. Amazing anybody is taking that run seriously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Quick, let's ride the 00Z GGEM train! Oh, wait.... Hilarious spread. Amazing anybody is taking that run seriously. Meh, it's a large spread but they all seem to agree on a supressed and weak system. EDIT: we should get a good feel what the NAM will do with todays 12z and 0z runs. I'm pretty sure it's going to dig the h5 pretty damn deep, just wonder if it will pull a euro and scoot it out into the deep south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 FWIW afd's out of OH going with the gfs track instead of the euro, stating gfs has been the most consistant. Went over to PHI nws afd. They went with ukmet and the gem.. said gfs has a speed bias and the euros bias is digging the trough the deepest, which is its bias so they went with the other 2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 FWIW virtually all the WFO's are hanging on the GFS solution for now. I'd expect some changes if the Euro solution holds and the GFS begins a slow trend in the Euro direction beginning with the 12Z output. The Christmas Storm track is far from a done deal at this range, IMO. Happy Holidays! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Meh, it's a large spread but they all seem to agree on a supressed and weak system. EDIT: we should get a good feel what the NAM will do with todays 12z and 0z runs. I'm pretty sure it's going to dig the h5 pretty damn deep, just wonder if it will pull a euro and scoot it out into the deep south. Compare to the GFS maps above my post and note the small spread and relative agreement. The main features haven't shifted much on that model, aside from the 18Z phased run from yesterday. It still shows a transfer to an EC system like the other two, just in a different and more orderly manner. I suppose we'll see what happens when the rest of the 12Z runs come in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 FWIW virtually all the WFO's are hanging on the GFS solution for now. I'd expect some changes if the Euro solution holds and the GFS begins a slow trend in the Euro direction beginning with the 12Z output. The Christmas Storm track is far from a done deal at this range, IMO. Happy Holidays! Consistency counts for something, but IMO is overrated at 100+hrs out, especially when it's consistency without agreement. Right now the GFS doesn't have much backup in the model world and its ensembles are leaning away from the OP. The Euro is probably a little extreme especially given its history with energy into the southwest, but I think we're going to see the GFS start trending at least a little south. I'd be surprised if the Euro was just totally out to lunch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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