baroclinic_instability Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Wow Euro lol, digs the PV all the way down to the Gulf states and then it kinda just hangs out before ejecting the entire PV NE with both GOM and Gulf stream moisture to work with. For real though, if that were to actually happen, it would be crippling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Wow Euro lol, digs the PV all the way down to the Gulf states and then it kinda just hangs out before ejecting the entire PV NE with both GOM and Gulf stream moisture to work with. For real though, if that were to actually happen, it would be crippling. How far north do you think it will adjust in reality? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Storm Mode operating status All they need now is for a radio show kiss of death then we can guarantee it goes north and west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 How far north do you think it will adjust in reality? lol Not saying the ECM will be right...but the GFS operational (white line) is the very most northern solution of nearly every ensemble member by 156. That is the 0Z GEFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 I'll bet against it.. Ive got paypal. lol. Ill bet that it is at least 300 miles north of where it is on the 0z. Had to post this from the other thread. lol yeah I can't believe HM is going full 'weenie' on one run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 yeah I can't believe HM is going full 'weenie' on one run. Oh it is disgusting. Saying the last 12 gfs runs made no sense, and this run of the euro is the only model that makes any sense whatsoever. it is disgusting over there. I am glad we dont act that bad. Jesus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Oh it is disgusting. Saying the last 12 gfs runs made no sense, and this run of the euro is the only model that makes any sense whatsoever. it is disgusting over there. I am glad we dont act that bad. Jesus. Yeah they are just straight up hugging the 00z Euro, its downright sickening. It will be glorious when reality sets in, just like it did with the system that missed them today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Not sure about anyone else but i sure as hell would NOT wanna be in a bullseye beyond 96hrs. Thus i would have been PISSED to see this over my backyard at this time range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Not sure about anyone else but i sure as hell would NOT wanna be in a bullseye beyond 96hrs. Thus i would have been PISSED to see this over my backyard at this time range. Exactly, how many times has a system locked in this far out, maybe a handful in the last 10 years? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Yeah it is pretty unlikely given the way the PV just tracks along the GOM like that. Timing will have to be perfect once again. Better chance though then the last event missing them now...that was a serious thread the needle event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Yeah they are just straight up hugging the 00z Euro, its downright sickening. It will be glorious when reality sets in, just like it did with the system that missed them today. Only problem I see is that system did just scoot off the coast. I'd like this one to come back north about 500 miles lol Not sure about anyone else but i sure as hell would NOT wanna be in a bullseye beyond 96hrs. Thus i would have been PISSED to see this over my backyard at this time range. yea, which is why i am glad where I personally stand right now. I was more worried with being in the bullseye such as the gfs and others have basically been showing. Now I got some room for this north trend when it begins. I bet 12z tomorrow earliest 0z tomorrow latest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Who was it said a track through CMH earlier? Wonder if that thinking will stick. Based on the euro I bet final track will be norther TN/Southern KY EDIT. Note not saying this cause it is best for mby, just basing it on past storms so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Yeah it is pretty unlikely given the way the PV just tracks along the GOM like that. Timing will have to be perfect once again. Better chance though then the last event missing them now...that was a serious thread the needle event. Yeah but the odd's of this holding steady like it is now is what? 3% if that? Heck it is hard to hold a track inside of 48/72hrs much less beyond day 5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Who was it said a track through CMH earlier? Wonder if that thinking will stick. Based on the euro I bet final track will be norther TN/Southern KY EDIT. Note not saying this cause it is best for mby, just basing it on past storms so far. What past storms though, there hasn't been one that has tracked that far south all year. Except this last one which scooted right off the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Well the experimental FIM is taking the Euroish route I believe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 If HM is bullish that's all I need to know. I'll just wait and continue to watch the Mammoth cam until Jan and beyond for mine. Anything that can prevent more than a pixie dust mess up here in december will I've come to the conclusion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 What past storms though, there hasn't been one that has tracked that far south all year. Except this last one which scooted right off the coast. read my post two back. I said that. But all the storms have adjusted north. May not have been this far south, but theyve adjusted north. We'll see tomorrow at 12z. I bet the euro is north of this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 welp I am off til the gfs 6z run. Cant wait to see what the 12z runs bring tomorrow. I will say this, if this one misses to the south, we will have been missed to the north to the west and to the south, I will officially throw out the winter cancel for central Oh. and I will be done model watching for the winter. (maybe) lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Yeah but the odd's of this holding steady like it is now is what? 3% if that? Heck it is hard to hold a track inside of 48/72hrs much less beyond day 5. At this very moment in time, the way all the operational models (except the GFS) are now way south and digging this pacific jet and ejecting the anomaly much farther S, it is possible they take an even slightly farther S jump since their previous analysis field is used in the next model simulation. Also lending a tad credence to this sudden south trend is the GFS ensemble with the operational run the farthest N solution. I would say a PV tracking along the southern states is prolly a 50/50 chance as the ECM/CMC have it now. A full phase, maybe 40%, a phase at the exact right time to create a ECM type solution 15%. Not great odds, but I dont think the ECM farther S track is unusual per se. The thread the needle event missing them now needed three very low amplitude phases and the last phase had to be within like a 3-6 hour window of time for cyclogenesis to happen at the perfect moment. That was a truly low probability event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 read my post two back. I said that. But all the storms have adjusted north. May not have been this far south, but theyve adjusted north. We'll see tomorrow at 12z. I bet the euro is north of this run. OR they have fizzled out and thus see the current clusterfook just off the coast. Remember it was about 3-5 days ago modeled to hit all of i95 and then it became a New England threat and now this.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 read my post two back. I said that. But all the storms have adjusted north. May not have been this far south, but theyve adjusted north. We'll see tomorrow at 12z. I bet the euro is north of this run. They only can adjust north when south of you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 welp I am off til the gfs 6z run. Cant wait to see what the 12z runs bring tomorrow. I will say this, if this one misses to the south, we will have been missed to the north to the west and to the south, I will officially throw out the winter cancel for central Oh. and I will be done model watching for the winter. (maybe) lol With the way the GFS ensemble looks, I wouldn't be a bit surprised if the operational 6z went south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 OR they have fizzled out and thus see the current clusterfook just off the coast. Remember it was about 3-5 days ago modeled to hit all of i95 and then it became a New England threat and now this.. always have to have a sense of worry when the euro makes a drastic change, but the euro isnt 100% correct all the time. We shall see. as for now, nothing would surprise me. Tomorrow we could see an apps runner, wth knows at this point. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 They only can adjust north when south of you huh? it could adjust more south. youve lost me. Bedtime lol. later Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 At this very moment in time, the way all the operational models (except the GFS) are now way south and digging this pacific jet and ejecting the anomaly much farther S, it is possible they take an even slightly farther S jump since their previous analysis field is used in the next model simulation. Also lending a tad credence to this sudden south trend is the GFS ensemble with the operational run the farthest N solution. I would say a PV tracking along the southern states is prolly a 50/50 chance as the ECM/CMC have it now. A full phase, maybe 40%, a phase at the exact right time to create a ECM type solution 15%. Not great odds, but I dont think the ECM farther S track is unusual per se. Ahh ok. Yeah most of this i do agree with. I was mainly referring to the *perfect* i95 track that is being shown on this run of the euro etc. Is it possible? Sure. But is it likely to hold as is? Very doubtful. JMHO I have followed enough in my lifetime here and living there for over 30yrs to know this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 huh? it could adjust more south. youve lost me. Bedtime lol. later lol n/m... Good night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Ahh ok. Yeah most of this i do agree with. I was mainly referring to the *perfect* i95 track that is being shown on this run of the euro etc. Is it possible? Sure. But is it likely to hold as is? Very doubtful. JMHO I have followed enough in my lifetime here and living there for over 30yrs to know this. Yeah agreed, not sure why they are claiming the next "white hurricane" already, seems a bit premature. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Yeah agreed, not sure why they are claiming the next "white hurricane" already, seems a bit premature. If you ( or anyone else ) is wise i would avoid saying anything in that thread. I am sure this thread alone may fire a few of them up. But yeah that is how it has always been going back to wwbb/before eastern. Some just never learn. Cant wait to see what comes out of hypeuweather! Then will come the runs that show a different solution and the posts will shift to why those runs are wrong and how it can come back with great reasoning given etc etc etc. Someone will post JB's/accuwx latest hype ( even though the models will have gone a different way ) and that will get a flame war or two started. blah blah blah.. Same thing as always. Ofcourse this will be the time all the models are right just to prove me wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Cant wait to see what comes out of hypeuweather! I can just imagine, it will be hilarious, they are going to be painting a picture of fail tomorrow morning, guaranteed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Hope you're wrong Harry. Id like the 12z runs to end this south trend now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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