JoMo Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Farther S at 90 when compared to the 12z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Yah no words were put in your mouth. Next time take a chill pill and PM if you have an issue you think I am calling you out. Big difference between "putting words" in someone's mouth and mis-interpreting their statements. Wow, pretty sure that over the course of the last week, you are the only one around here who needs to "chill" out. You seem to mis-interpret a lot of poster's statements. It is becoming a common and reoccurring theme. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Oz is south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 this topic is such a clusterf*ck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Yeah I think we have all gone over this a million times. Canuck and I had a good conversation on this. Either way, if you can find one instance of me needing to chill out, please PM it to me or let me know. I think you will have a tough time finding it. Your attitude in general as well as your attitude towards other posters leaves a lot to be desired, at least IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 So back to the topic at hand..... WTF happens @ 500 from 90-108? Is that some kind of convective feedback? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Oz is south That 2nd s/w dropping out of the northern Plains acts as a kicker and prevents the main s/w from slowing and amplifying. 18z actually attempted a phase at the 2 shortwaves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 WAAAYYYY weaker than the 18z for us. And quite a ways south too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Guys no need to bash on Baro now come on... He is one of the few great mets in out region who posts here and provides a unique perspective.. It would be a shame if we lose him.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 So back to the topic at hand..... WTF happens @ 500 from 90-108? 108hrs is the real..LOL However the problems appear to start with 102hrs.. Have this in se Iowa at 108hrs.. Yet the surface low is here?? Yeak..Ok.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Omahawx Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 0z GFS pummels me with a snowstorm and strong winds...it is my turn after seeing storm after storm hit Minnesota to my northeast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Very big differences in H5 vort max placement between the NAM and GFS at 84hrs... NAM GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 That 2nd s/w dropping out of the northern Plains acts as a kicker and prevents the main s/w from slowing and amplifying. 18z actually attempted a phase at the 2 shortwaves. Thus a part of the problem. It does seem to be a part of the reason the storm kinda goes poof and dives ese. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 0z GFS pummels me with a snowstorm and strong winds...it is my turn after seeing storm after storm hit Minnesota to my northeast Wouldn't get too excited yet. As henry stated above. Run doesn't make sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 WAAAYYYY weaker than the 18z for us. And quite a ways south too. yep... although i'll gladly take this over a shift north from 18z. All i care about right now is the gfs continues to track a storm across the lower OV upper TV....as do most the other models. Precip output and that kind of stuff doesn't mean crap right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 yep... although i'll gladly take this over a shift north from 18z. All i care about right now is the gfs continues to track a storm across the lower OV upper TV....as do most the other models. Precip output and that kind of stuff doesn't mean crap right now. Couldn't have said it better myself! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Wouldn't get too excited yet. As henry stated above. Run doesn't make sense. Freudian slip? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 yep... although i'll gladly take this over a shift north from 18z. All i care about right now is the gfs continues to track a storm across the lower OV upper TV....as do most the other models. Precip output and that kind of stuff doesn't mean crap right now. It is the subtle changes you have to be on the lookout for. One of then would be the models having a bit of a stronger storm in the Plains. This storm i strongly believe was getting ready to POP till that disturbance showed up out of Canada. Thus i suspect if thats not there we see some big changes in the next few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 108hrs is the real..LOL However the problems appear to start with 102hrs.. Have this in se Iowa at 108hrs.. Yet the surface low is here?? Yeak..Ok.. Yeah, about this. So there's a strong S/W that somehow spins up so much it splits itself into 3 pieces that rotate around each other and weaken or something? I'm not really sure what happened here. I notice it's around the QPF 'bomb' as well. Just interesting and wondering what happened there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Freudian slip? Oh god, harry is gonna kill me. Lol. Sorry harry. You made sense. Henry never makes sense lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jhamps10 Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 something does not make sense with this run at all, not seeing how the storm gets sheared out like it does. while the placement through here looks about right, not seeing how it goes nearly ESE from the MS river east. Still shows a LOT of ice for the STL area, or close to it with snow just north of the STL metro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Thus a part of the problem. It does seem to be a part of the reason the storm kinda goes poof and dives ese. DT posted some nice graphics in the model thread showing the distinction. http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php?/topic/4351-0z-guidance-discussion-12202010/page__view__findpost__p__136814 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 OT but the GFS is really struggling in the medium range. The difference between the 180hr 12z maps and 00z 168hr maps are pretty crazy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Omahawx Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Well the first part of the track has been the same with the gfs but from past runs it hasnt dived southeast and died out so yes..dont think it will go southeast like that..but all gfs runs have been consistent with pegging me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jhamps10 Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Well the first part of the track has been the same with the gfs but from past runs it hasnt dived southeast and died out so yes..dont think it will go southeast like that..but all gfs runs have been consistent with pegging me exactly, that's what is causing me to go HUH with this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 i think folks west of IN in the midwest are pretty solid for a good hit. Pretty much no doubt a storm is coming out of the rockies with a lot of juice. It's what happens east of that point from michigan thru the OV. Does it dry out, wind up, crush out off the se coast???? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Freudian slip? Oh god, harry is gonna kill me. Lol. Sorry harry. You made sense. Henry never makes sense lol All is good. DT posted some nice graphics in the model thread showing the distinction. http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php?/topic/4351-0z-guidance-discussion-12202010/page__view__findpost__p__136814 Yet they continue on as if it was a good run? i think folks west of IN in the midwest are pretty solid for a good hit. Pretty much no doubt a storm is coming out of the rockies with a lot of juice. It's what happens east of that point from michigan thru the OV. Does it dry out, wind up, crush out off the se coast???? Unfortunately we wont have this answer from the GFS till the next run. My own thinking remains the same. All depends on what happens to the Atlantic blocking and to a lessor extent any possible phasing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 i think folks west of IN in the midwest are pretty solid for a good hit. Pretty much no doubt a storm is coming out of the rockies with a lot of juice. It's what happens east of that point from michigan thru the OV. Does it dry out, wind up, crush out off the se coast???? Well that run of the gfs didn't make much sense. The qpf was bullish on the 18z, but the placement of things made sense. I got a feeling we're going to have to wait til Wednesday or Thursday to know for sure. I'm sure something will throw a wrench at some point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 HAHAHA GGEM is way south........ 108 HR... RELOAD if it's the old one (Should be 12z Fri) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 S/W at 500 isn't closed. It may appear that way, but the actual wind circulation isn't closed off, it's still an open wave, and the jet would support the low where it is. At the moment, it appears to carry a steady-state SLP across the Plains while slowly strengthening the 850-500 upper wave. This is the non-phased scenario, which as I mentioned before, still produces a decent storm for the Midwest, and a further south track eastward. The GFS, being a lower-res global, may not be giving the strengthening the storm will likely experience over the Plains in this scenario, so even with this run, I would expect it to track a bit slower and further north. The 00Z NAM is suffering from the "phase shift" problem (very obvious from early in the run), and is complete and utter garbage. It is not to be used for any serious discussion on this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.