December 24-25 Snowstorm

[Stebo]

I'd like to note that both the GFS and GGEM ensembles have been further north for several runs with the low track. To me that this a huge red flag of something to watch.

[jhamps10]

I don't think I've ever seen ILX go with 70% probs 5 days out...

[A-L-E-K]

I'd like to note that both the GFS and GGEM ensembles have been further north for several runs with the low track. To me that this a huge red flag of something to watch.

Are you talking about the mean compared to the OP run? If so, you're probably right.

[Thundersnow12]

just for sh*ts and gigs...had to save this image.

[A-L-E-K]

just for sh*ts and gigs...had to save this image.

Ridonkulous and only through 120 hrs.

[Stebo]

Are you talking about the mean compared to the OP run? If so, you're probably right.

The mean and several members.

[Stevo6899]

For the Ohio folks you may like part of the DTX discussion.

ANOTHER STRONGER SYSTEM IS THEN SHOWN TO MOVE ONSHORE FROM THE

PACIFIC BUT CUTTING UNDER THE LONG WAVE RIDGE. THIS DOES FAVOR A

FARTHER SOUTH TRACK THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY BUT WITH A CHANCE

THAT THE NORTHERN FRINGES OF THE MOISTURE PATTERN WILL BRUSH SE

MICHIGAN DURING CHRISTMAS EVE AND CHRISTMAS DAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL

HELP REAMPLIFY THE LONG WAVE PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA THROUGH

CHRISTMAS WEEKEND. GLOBAL MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON

THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN EVOLVING INTO AN OMEGA BLOCK THAT SETS UP

ANOTHER ROUND OF DEEP NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE GREAT LAKES. DUE

TO THE HIGH PREDICTABILITY OF SUCH A LARGE SCALE PATTERN, THERE IS

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE CORRESPONDING BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES

EXPECTED FOR SE MICHIGAN. THERE IS ALSO A GOOD SHOT AT A PERIOD OF

ACTIVE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS BEFORE A WESTERLY COMPONENT DEVELOPS

IN THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BY LATE SUNDAY.

Still learning and im curious what is meant by cutting under the long wave ridge. Is it normal for energy to do this?

Also does " THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN EVOLVING INTO AN OMEGA BLOCK" represent the NAo block? Thanks

[A-L-E-K]

The mean and several members.

I'll go out on a limb and say when this gets into the NAM's range, it's north.

[Stebo]

I'll go out on a limb and say when this gets into the NAM's range, it's north.

It is all in the amount of phasing that occurs, if it phases more it will be north and stronger. If it stays unphased it will be south and weak. It is something to watch, however with the amount of energy that is progged to slam into the West Coast I wouldn't be shocked if this is closer to the 18z GFS and the ensembles.

[patrick7032]

I'd like to note that both the GFS and GGEM ensembles have been further north for several runs with the low track. To me that this a huge red flag of something to watch.

Totally agree....and that has been a consistent trend this winter from a climatology/analysis standpoint.

[A-L-E-K]

It is all in the amount of phasing that occurs, if it phases more it will be north and stronger. If it stays unphased it will be south and weak. It is something to watch, however with the amount of energy that is progged to slam into the West Coast I wouldn't be shocked if this is closer to the 18z GFS and the ensembles.

looking at the h5 the 0z NAM has coming on the scene, it's going to dig but really crank things up to the east, i can't imagine it turning out surpressed.

[patrick7032]

Still learning and im curious what is meant by cutting under the long wave ridge. Is it normal for energy to do this?

Also does " THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN EVOLVING INTO AN OMEGA BLOCK" represent the NAo block? Thanks

Here is a link that may help explain it Steve....If not let me know and will try and help clarify.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Block_%28meteorology%29

[Stebo]

looking at the h5 the 0z NAM has coming on the scene, it's going to dig but really crank things up to the east, i can't imagine it turning out surpressed.

We just need that thing that goes off the East Coast to keep moving along.

[The_Global_Warmer]

Looking at the 18z GFS and the 00z NAM..

how on Earth could the nam end up a lakes cutter with what is going on the East Coast?

the 18z GFS is no where near that suppressed out east.

[buckeye]

any of you mets ever heard the idea that the latitude a storm enters the west coast is the latitude it will usually exit the eastcoast? I say this because margusity mentioned that the storm is supposed to come ashore at sanfrancisco and will therefore exit off delaware. It reminded me that jb use to say that all the time as well.

any truth to that???

[Thundersnow12]

differences between the 0z NAM and the 18z GFS

NAM

GFS

[buckeye]

differences between the 0z NAM and the 18z GFS

sheesh, looking at the northeast on that nam map.....looks like the nam is gonna try to send that storm into a shredder after it comes into the plains

[jhamps10]

if I was to take a guess the nam would show something a bit further south, looking at how that upper air dynamics suggest digging and going further south.. but that's my guess.

[A-L-E-K]

any of you mets ever heard the idea that the latitude a storm enters the west coast is the latitude it will usually exit the eastcoast? I say this because margusity mentioned that the storm is supposed to come ashore at sanfrancisco and will therefore exit off delaware. It reminded me that jb use to say that all the time as well.

any truth to that???

It's crap our best storms dive into the southwest.

[JoMo]

any of you mets ever heard the idea that the latitude a storm enters the west coast is the latitude it will usually exit the eastcoast? I say this because margusity mentioned that the storm is supposed to come ashore at sanfrancisco and will therefore exit off delaware. It reminded me that jb use to say that all the time as well.

any truth to that???

Don't think so, as a lot of storms dive into the SW and eject out to the NE.

[snowstormcanuck]

Here's H5 at 87 hours from the 21z SREFs. I'll wager a guess that the members with a more amplified pattern would support a further north track, while the flatter ones would support more suppression.

[Stevo6899]

It's crap our best storms dive into the southwest.

Bingo. When are we expecting more lows to come into the Sw?

[Stevo6899]

Here is a link that may help explain it Steve....If not let me know and will try and help clarify.

http://en.wikipedia....8meteorology%29

Very helpful. Appreciate it.

[A-L-E-K]

Don't think so, as a lot of storms dive into the SW and eject out to the NE.

pretty much, powerhouse H5s that dig well south into the desert southwest and then eject NE towards Detroit our are big snow storm bread and butter. As far as i'm concerned the slower and more this thing digs, the harder it turns NE.

[patrick7032]

Very helpful. Appreciate it.

No problem....that 500mb vorticity map (first image) has a great example of one.

[JoMo]

Bingo. When are we expecting more lows to come into the Sw?

The Christmas Eve storm comes ashore in S California. :-p

[Stevo6899]

The Christmas Eve storm comes ashore in S California. :-p

Yea I was a dumb question considering this storm is, but I mean are we going into more of a pattern where the energies come into west further south?

[patrick7032]

Wow, definitely didn't mean that in a negative way man. I could see how it was though.

I meant "be careful" in a nice way and not negative towards you.

Sheesh everyone one here needs to cool it sometimes.

It's the holiday shopping stress.

We can all discuss things at the bar....I will buy.

[A-L-E-K]

It's the holiday shopping stress.

We can all discuss things at the bar....I will buy.

I would bankrupt you.

[goknights]

This is OT but this really is quite the hobby. I am sitting here clicking refresh every 30 seconds as I wait for a snow storm that is 4 days out and could track anywhere between duluth minnesota and duluth georgia